Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
254 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...
Convection has initiated across north and central Georgia this
afternoon, and main concern continues to be potential for strong,
damaging storms and heavy rain, generally in northwest Georgia
through late evening.

Hi-Res models still showing MCV will tap into destabilized, tropical
air mass to promote storm development over the Tennessee Valley.
Clusters of these storms are expected to move into northwest Georgia
with the potential to produce very heavy rainfall and damaging
winds. Already seeing some of this development between Nashville and
Chattanooga, and have kept likely pops across northwest Georgia
region through the afternoon. SPC has portions of north Georgia
outlooked in a Slight Risk for severe storms. A Flash Flood Watch
remains in effect through 10 PM due to the current wet soil
conditions and the potential for storms to dump 1-2 inches of
rainfall in a short period. The 3-hr FFG values continue to range in
the 1.5-2 inch range for northwest Georgia, which could easily be
achieved with slow moving or training storms, particularly in this
tropical environment. PW on the morning sounding was 1.5 inches, but
expect PWs to increase and approach 2 inches by this evening. Have
continued with a slightly higher QPF than WPC's latest forecast for
the 18-00z and 00-06z period.

Broad upper trough axis remains over the eastern U.S. through the
short term, and with a moisture-rich atmosphere fueled by flow
around the surface high, expect slightly above normal diurnal precip
chances into early week. Temperatures will remain warm, with highs
in the upper 80s to low 90s. The combination of high relative
humidity and warm temperatures will produce heat index values of 100-
103 degrees in portions of central Georgia. Those out enjoying the
holiday weekend should stay hydrated and take breaks from the
outdoors in cool or shady spaces.

31

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
Only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.

The July 4th holiday will feature a rather moist summertime
airmass that will give potential for showers and thunderstorms...
most so in the afternoon and evening. High Temps will range
from the upper half of the 80s to the lower half of the 90s.
Heat indices will range about 90 to 100.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
The long term begins with a broad upper trough over the eastern US
just north of the CWA while a ridge of high pressure remains to our
east. This keeps the CWA in on the periphery of both features. This
will change very little over the long term keeping a moisture rich
atmosphere over the CWA. A short wave will move into the upper
trough toward the end of the long term which will sharpen the trough
bringing the westerlies into the CWA pushing a cold front into the
CWA late in the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue across the CWA each day through the long term mostly being
diurnally driven. There should be an increase in convection ahead of
the cold front at the end of the upcoming week.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
MVFR to VFR cigs remain over the area, and just now starting to
see shower development over the area. Expect best -TSRA potential
to be 21-01z, and have generally gone VCSH with TEMPO -TSRA. Winds
should be west at 9kt or less through the period. Clearing skies
overnight could result in patchy fog, particularly over north
Georgia. PROB30 in again tomorrow from 19-23 for KATL.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on timing of TEMPO.
High confidence on all other elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  91  72  89 /  40  30  30  40
Atlanta         72  89  73  87 /  40  40  30  40
Blairsville     66  84  65  82 /  60  40  30  50
Cartersville    71  89  70  88 /  50  40  30  40
Columbus        74  91  74  90 /  30  40  30  40
Gainesville     71  88  71  87 /  50  40  30  40
Macon           73  92  73  91 /  20  30  30  40
Rome            71  89  70  88 /  40  40  30  40
Peachtree City  71  89  71  88 /  40  40  30  40
Vidalia         75  94  76  92 /  20  30  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for the following
zones: Catoosa...Chattooga...Dade...Murray...Walker...Whitfield.

&&

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...31

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1250 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-021000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1250 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight...

...Isolated Severe Storms Possible across north Georgia...
...Flash Flooding Possible across extreme northwest Georgia...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop
through today across much of north and central Georgia. As the
atmosphere destabilizes across northwest Georgia, a few storms
could reach severe limits with damaging winds being the main
threat. The area most likely to have severe storms is north of
a line from Cedartown to Gainesville until around mid evening.
Areas south of this line will be less likely to see severe storms.

Also...some of the storms across extreme northwest Georgia could
produce heavy rain. For more information see the latest Flash
Flood Watch statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

There is a chance of thunderstorms each day, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours. A few storms could be strong with
gusty winds as well as locally heavy rain which could cause
temporary flooding of poor drainage areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather and flooding through the web
by going to weather.gov/atlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
627 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

GAZ022-023-025-034-035-012300-
Hall GA-Jackson GA-Barrow GA-Forsyth GA-Gwinnett GA-
627 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HALL...NORTHWESTERN
JACKSON...NORTHWESTERN BARROW...NORTHEASTERN FORSYTH AND NORTHEASTERN
GWINNETT COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 627 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Aqualand Park, or 8
miles east of Cumming...moving east at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Gainesville, Winder, Jefferson, Sugar Hill, Buford, Braselton,
Auburn, Flowery Branch, Oakwood, Hoschton, Pendergrass, Carl, Talmo,
Rest Haven, Candler, Chateau Elan, Buford Dam-Lake Lanier Parks, Road
Atlanta-Lanier Speedway, Lake Lanier Islands and Hog Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3411 8410 3429 8405 3426 8362 3396 8374
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 281DEG 22KT 3419 8399

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
628 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

GAZ076-012300-
Jefferson GA-
628 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY
UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 628 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Vidette, or 10 miles
northeast of Louisville...moving east at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Jefferson County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3315 8227 3307 8229 3302 8229 3306 8241
      3319 8237 3318 8225
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 281DEG 22KT 3311 8228

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
646 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

GAZ012-019-020-012315-
Gordon GA-Bartow GA-Floyd GA-
646 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN GORDON...BARTOW AND
EASTERN FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

At 646 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Pinson, or 9 miles
southwest of Calhoun...moving southeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Cartersville, Calhoun, Adairsville, Euharlee, White, Kingston,
Plainville, Cassville, Shannon, Pinson and Stilesboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3436 8516 3449 8500 3425 8467 3408 8490
      3408 8492
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 317DEG 22KT 3438 8503

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
659 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

GAZ036>038-012330-
Oglethorpe GA-Clarke GA-Oconee GA-
659 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN OGLETHORPE...EASTERN
CLARKE AND EASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

At 659 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Whitehall, or near
Athens...moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Watkinsville, Lexington, Winterville, Crawford, Arnoldsville, Maxeys,
Whitehall, Athens-Clarke County, Stephens, Hutchings, Barnett Shoals,
Dunlap and State Botanical Garden Of Ga.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3371 8304 3371 8309 3383 8342 3400 8336
      3395 8296
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 286DEG 19KT 3390 8331

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
717 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

GAZ043-044-053-054-012345-
Fayette GA-Douglas GA-Coweta GA-South Fulton GA-
717 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE...SOUTHERN
DOUGLAS...NORTHERN COWETA AND SOUTH FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM
EDT...

At 717 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Chattahoochee Hill
Country, or 12 miles south of Douglasville...moving east at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Atlanta, Fayetteville, Peachtree City, East Point, Union City,
College Park, Fairburn, Tyrone, Palmetto, Chattahoochee Hill Country,
Hannah, Chapel Hill, Bill Arp, Fairplay, Cannongate, Sandy Creek,
Campbellton, Roscoe, Sandtown and Dunaway Gardens.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3350 8486 3352 8485 3351 8483 3352 8482
      3355 8483 3357 8481 3357 8488 3367 8486
      3372 8451 3369 8444 3365 8445 3365 8446
      3360 8446 3342 8448 3349 8488
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 277DEG 26KT 3358 8479

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
728 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

GAZ012-019-020-020000-
Gordon GA-Bartow GA-Floyd GA-
728 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN GORDON...
NORTHWESTERN BARTOW AND NORTHEASTERN FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM
EDT...

At 728 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Everett Springs, or 9
miles southwest of Calhoun...moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Rome, Calhoun, Adairsville, Plainville, Shannon, Sonoraville, Pinson,
Oostanaula, Armuchee, Folsom and Everett Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3443 8521 3444 8518 3453 8514 3452 8478
      3426 8484 3436 8524
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 280DEG 17KT 3444 8510

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH