Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
801 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 330 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...
Convection has been slow to get started today across the forecast
area. Starting to see better coverage across the north, which
appears to be related more to a little bit better heating in that
area that had less cloud cover through much of the day; and across
the southwest which appears to be more dynamic in nature due to the
approaching weak mid/upper-level wave lifting up from the
Mississippi delta. Instability remains limited which is
understandable in light of the deep, rich moisture feeding into the
region. Deep moist adiabatic lapse rates do not leave much room to
generate a heap of CAPE. However, this deep moisture does lead to
some heavy rain potential which will need to be watched. Rainfall
totals across the north over the next 36-48 hours could lead to some
isolated, localized flooding. After the current wave of convection
diminishes and/or moves out of the forecast area later this evening,
we are likely to see at least a brief lull in activity before
another surge of precipitation associated with the main upper wave
by early Friday. Once again instability is expected to remain
marginal and severe thunderstorm threat is low.

20

LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...
The long term forecast period will remain unsettled.

The southern stream shortwave trough that pushed out of the Gulf and
into the CWA during the short term will have pushed east into the
Carolina Coast by early Saturday. Most of the deeper layer moisture
and associated precip activity will have also pushed east.
However...the next cold front will be approaching from the N/NW.
This front should sink into a good portion of north Georgia through
the day on Saturday where the highest thunderstorm chances will
reside. Right now...lack of sufficient shear will prevent widespread
updraft organization but lapse rates may be steep enough for a small
hail threat. Do think there will be a diurnal influence to the
activity on Saturday...so think precip will wind down
gradually on Saturday night as the front stalls.

Sunday thunderstorm activity will be largely diurnally
driven...though depending on where the front hangs up some activity
could be enhanced in its vicinity...especially across the north.
This type of unsettled pattern will carry over into a good portion
of next week as it winds down Sunday night and redevelops again by
Monday afternoon. Broad cyclonic flow will be have worked its way
into the region by Sunday so any weak...yet fast moving shortwave
trough could also enhance activity.

As of now...for the July 4th holiday the best chances of shower and
thunderstorm activity will be across central and western
Georgia...mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. A pattern
shift will be taking place...with the Bermuda ridge building into
the area and pushing most of the shortwave activity north. This type
of pattern looks to continue through the week...with perhaps the
next system coming in from the north towards the weekend.

Temps through the extended will be hot and muggy with highs
generally in the 90s and lows near 70.

Kovacik

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...

Remaining VFR/MVFR ceilings this evening should continue to trend
toward IFR ceilings by the 03-06z time frame. Ceilings should improve
to MVFR by late morning to midday Friday. Light rain and showers
will linger at most TAF sites this evening before tapering off to
more isolated coverage overnight through around 10-12z when
convective coverage should begin to increase again. The best
opportunity for additional thunderstorms will again be during the
afternoon hours on Friday. Southeast winds at 5-7kts this evening
will become lighter overnight before shifting to SW between 12 and
16z on Friday.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...

Medium confidence on evolution and timing of IFR ceilings
overnight. High confidence on convective trends and winds.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  81  70  89 /  60  70  50  50
Atlanta         71  81  71  88 /  70  70  50  50
Blairsville     67  77  66  82 /  70  70  50  60
Cartersville    70  80  70  87 /  70  70  40  60
Columbus        72  85  72  90 /  70  60  40  40
Gainesville     69  79  70  87 /  70  70  50  50
Macon           72  85  72  89 /  70  60  50  40
Rome            71  81  71  88 /  70  70  40  60
Peachtree City  70  82  70  88 /  70  60  50  50
Vidalia         73  86  73  91 /  50  60  50  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RW
AVIATION...RW

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
825 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2017

GAZ023>025-027-034>038-047-049-300100-
Madison GA-Morgan GA-Banks GA-Hall GA-Jackson GA-Walton GA-Barrow GA-
Gwinnett GA-Oglethorpe GA-Clarke GA-Oconee GA-
825 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MADISON...NORTHERN MORGAN...
SOUTHERN BANKS...SOUTHEASTERN HALL...JACKSON...NORTHEASTERN WALTON...
BARROW...EASTERN GWINNETT...NORTHWESTERN OGLETHORPE...CLARKE AND
OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

At 824 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Statham, or 9 miles
east of Winder...moving north at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Winder, Jefferson, Commerce, Watkinsville, Homer, Danielsville,
Athens, Braselton, Auburn, Dacula, Lula, Statham, Maysville, Arcade,
Nicholson, Hoschton, Comer, Winterville, Bogart and North High
Shoals.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3426 8334 3424 8334 3425 8332 3418 8310
      3417 8310 3415 8308 3373 8330 3372 8335
      3393 8389 3438 8369
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 199DEG 27KT 3398 8356

WIND...50MPH

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