Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
808 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 702 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017/

UPDATE...

Tornado watch 365 has been cancelled. Strong storms are continuing
and there are still some severe warning being issued but the
tornado threat appears to be over. The biggest threat with the
storms look to be damaging winds...frequent lightning...and heavy
rainfall.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 340 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

Short term remains active as tropical air mass persists over the
area. The remnants of Cindy will interact with a weak convergence
boundary through Saturday, and slowly sag southward across the
state. This zone will serve as a focus for precipitation and storm
development.

A Tornado Watch has already been issued for portions of far north
Georgia through 9 PM EDT tonight. This area is also outlooked for a
Slight Risk of severe storms. Expect a combination of individual
cells and bands of storms over the area, and expect it to persist
into the overnight hours the main axis moves farther into north
Georgia. Modeled low-level shear and instability is enough to
produce a few tornadoes, and strong, damaging wind gusts.
Destabilization has also occurred across middle and south Georgia
with breaks in the cloud cover, but expect the coverage of storms to
be less. Expect that if storms maintain their intensity and coverage
farther into north Georgia this evening and overnight, that
additional convective watches may be issued east and south of the
current Tornado Watch 365.

Antecedent soil conditions remain wet, and with a few models
continuing to indicate widespread 1-2 inches of rainfall. Modeled
precipitable water values range from 2 to 2.4 inches, and combined
with training storms, could produce very heavy downpours and locally
heavy rainfall, exceeding the current 1-2 inch QPF. Have continued
the Flash Flood Watch over the current area and time to highlight
the highest risk of flash flooding. Most rivers and creeks are
running at or slight above normal stream flow, and would respond
quickly to high rainfall amounts. If you live near a creek or river,
stay aware of changing conditions, particularly through the
overnight hours.

Enhanced moisture remains across the area Saturday as a cold front
pushes through the state. Models show multiple rounds of activity,
largely intensifying and expanding in coverage with daytime heating,
then dwindling into the late Saturday/early Sunday period. By late
Saturday the rain chances shift to the far southern portions of the
CWA, and with lower rainfall amounts in that area over the last
week, at this time do not expect a new Flash Flood Watch to be
issued for middle/central Georgia for Saturday. SPC has continued a
Marginal Risk for severe storms on Saturday.

Expect much cooler high temperatures Saturday with the precipitation
activity, and on Sunday with the influence of the drier and cooler
air mass.

31

LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...

No major differences in the model solutions to warrant wholesale
changes to the forecast. Have only made minor adjustments and
general refresh of forecast elements per recent blend. Previous
discussion follows...

Baker

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 352 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017/

LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...
The remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy will finally be out of our hair
at the beginning of the long term forecast period on saturday
morning. However there will be a cold frontal boundary moving south
across the area. Rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing along the
front...enhanced by diurnal heating in the afternoon. There looks to
be enough deep layer shear /0-6km of 20-30kts/ as a broad trough
deepens across the eastern 2/3rds of the US to work in
conjunction with instability invof the front. This should allow
for some organization of thunderstorm clusters along the front.
The main threat will be damaging wind gusts. SPC has a large
majority of central and eastern Georgia in a marginal risk.

The front will make slow progress into central Georgia Saturday
evening into the overnight hours but the loss of daytime heating and
rather poor forcing should allow most activity to gradually
dissipate. Front looks to linger across far southern zones on Sunday
where again diurnal heating should allow for a gradual increase in
thunderstorm activity through the afternoon. Shear appears to be
displaced too far north to pose a notable severe threat by this
time. Can't rule out isolated stronger storms...but think Saturday
has better parameters than Sunday.

Front should clear the CWA by Monday. A rather unseasonably
strong area of sfc high pressure will gradually build into the
region from the north in the wake of the front...which will make
for a dry day. A strong shortwave rotating around the broad scale
trough over the eastern US will likely bring some clouds to area
on Tuesday...but thinking large dome of sfc high pressure will
keep things dry. Height rises in the mid level behind this
shortwave combined with sfc high pressure should make for a very
pleasant Wednesday. Will see moisture gradually return outside of
the extended as the sfc high begins to scoot off the Atlantic
Coast.

Kovacik

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

Line of TSRA making steady progress toward the terminals at this
hour. RYY had gust close to 35 kt with another wave to affect
them. A little later for ATL at 01Z for a start time and very
limited window for TSRA. There is considerable trailing stratiform
rain in its wake along with quickly lowering cigs. MVFR should
take hold for the remainder of the late evening hours followed by
IFR cigs for the overnight period into Sat morning. Still an
opportunity for additional SHRA and TSRA on Sat should cigs clear
quickly enough so have included Prob30 in for most sites.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

Medium on IFR duration.
High on remaining elements.

Deese

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  85  69  86 /  60  70  30   5
Atlanta         72  83  68  83 /  70  70  40   5
Blairsville     68  79  61  79 /  90  50  20   5
Cartersville    72  83  66  83 /  90  60  20   5
Columbus        75  86  72  85 /  60  60  40  20
Gainesville     71  82  67  83 /  70  60  30   5
Macon           74  88  72  86 /  50  70  50  20
Rome            72  84  66  84 /  90  60  20   5
Peachtree City  73  83  68  84 /  60  70  40  10
Vidalia         75  91  75  89 /  20  30  40  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for the following
zones: Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattooga...
Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Dade...Dawson...
DeKalb...Douglas...Fannin...Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer...
Gordon...Gwinnett...Hall...Haralson...Heard...Henry...Jackson...
Lumpkin...Madison...Murray...Newton...North Fulton...Oconee...
Oglethorpe...Paulding...Pickens...Polk...Rockdale...South
Fulton...Towns...Union...Walker...Walton...White...Whitfield.

&&

SHORT TERM...Deese
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Deese

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
654 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-242300-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
654 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

There is a marginal to slight chance of severe thunderstorms across
north Georgia, mainly along and west of the I-85 corridor tonight
as the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy pass through the region.
The primary hazards will be damaging winds, frequent lightning,
and heavy rain.

A Flash Flood Watch continues for north and portions of central Georgia,
this afternoon through Saturday evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across north and central
Georgia Saturday and across central Georgia Sunday. The primary
hazards will be frequent lightning, gusty winds and heavy
rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

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