Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
716 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for the 00Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 341 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

Another unsettled day across the forecast area with showers and
thunderstorms developing. A weak trough extends down the Appalachians
and the convection seems to be favoring the northern counties so
far. Still expect a diurnal pattern to prevail for tonight. Have
included no pops after 06z...however would not be surprised to see a
few showers last all night. For Thursday...high pressure over the
Carolinas and the mid Atlantic is expected to weaken. This will
allow a short wave aloft to move southeast from the plains
states...possibly enhancing convection across north GA. SPC has
included our northwest counties in a slight risk for day two. There
appears to be abundant instability available with capes forecast to
range over 2000 by Thursday afternoon.

Temperatures should run more or less close to normal.

41

LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...
A relatively static forecast continues through the extended period
with plentiful opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. A warm
and moist airmass will interact with persistent weak low pressure
through the weekend to spark showers and thunderstorms each day. An
approaching cold front early next week will bring an additional
focus for thunderstorms. Please refer to the previous long-term
discussion below for additional details.

RW

Previous LONG TERM Forecast Discussion /Thursday Night through
Tuesday/...

The extended period remains largely unchanged and rather
monotonous through about Monday. As we begin on Thursday
night...the mid and upper levels will begin the process of taking
on more weakly cyclonic flow regime in which multiple weak
shortwave troughs will be advecting through. Stubborn weak trough
stemming from a weak sfc low over the North Carolina Piedmont will
also be lingering somewhere across eastern and northern Georgia.
With such a pattern...think convection from Thursday will be slow
to die down overnight into Friday. Cannot rule out some lingering
strong to isolated severe in this timeframe...mainly associated
with steeper mid level lapse rates as the cyclonic flow pattern
builds in.

On Friday...a very weak mid level shortwave will attempt to close
off...or at least become more concentrated over the local area. This
feature in conjunction with the Piedmont/lee side area of sfc low
pressure in the vicinity should be plenty to spark numerous
thunderstorms amidst a warm and unstable airmass. Coverage should
increase quickly by Friday afternoon and linger into a good
portion of Friday night. Weak low will continue to pump Gulf
moisture into the CWA through Saturday so expecting Saturday to be
similar to Friday...with perhaps slightly higher coverage across
central Georgia as the low attempts to move S/SE...albeit very
slowly. Same story for Sunday.

By Monday...A strong shortwave will eject out of the Great Lakes
into Ontario/Quebec. This will push the next cold front into the
area...which should have no problem sustaining thunderstorm
development along it despite best dynamics being well north. Belt of
stronger westerlies remain far enough north to keep best shear out
of the area. Things become a little unclear as this front progresses
south through the CWA. At the moment...seeing anticyclonic flow
around the Bermuda High pushing a plume of moisture into the region
from the SE...which looks to collide with the front and create some
sort of shear zone. Way too early to get cute with any details
though. Still EC/GFS agreement on a tropical wave developing off the
Yucatan next week. In addition...pattern change to Western US ridge
and eastern US trough is possible by next week.

Kovacik

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Convection across north GA will continue this evening, but slowly
dissipate after sunset. Skies and vsbys should remain VFR through
this evening, then MVFR vsbys with fog in the favored areas.
Expect some sct015-035 development late tonight and early Thursday
morning but conditions should remain VFR during the day Thursday.
Convection will initiate toward 18Z and continue through the
afternoon. Winds will remain light and westerly through the
forecast.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium on timing of convection this evening and Thursday
afternoon.
Medium on clouds late tonight.
High on remaining elements.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  90  70  89 /  60  40  30  60
Atlanta         72  88  72  87 /  40  40  40  60
Blairsville     65  83  66  84 /  60  50  40  60
Cartersville    70  89  69  87 /  50  50  40  50
Columbus        72  89  73  89 /  30  40  30  70
Gainesville     70  87  70  87 /  60  40  40  60
Macon           70  91  72  89 /  20  40  30  70
Rome            70  89  69  89 /  50  50  40  50
Peachtree City  67  88  70  87 /  20  40  30  60
Vidalia         73  92  73  90 /  30  40  30  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...17

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
537 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-150945-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
537 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across north and central
Georgia today and tonight. A few of the storms could become
strong with the primary threats being gusty winds, frequent
lightning and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the entire area
Thursday. A few of the storms may become severe with the potential
to produce damaging wind gusts...hail...lightning...and heavy
rainfall.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to be possible Friday through
Tuesday, mainly during the afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
655 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

GAZ034-045-142330-
DeKalb GA-Gwinnett GA-
655 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DEKALB AND SOUTHWESTERN GWINNETT
COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

At 654 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Lilburn, or 11 miles
west of Lawrenceville...moving southeast at 15 mph. Additional
strong thunderstorms were located across eastern DeKalb County
stretching from about Tucker to Stone Mountain. These storms were
also moving southeast.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Duluth, Snellville, Lilburn, Chamblee, Norcross, Doraville,
Clarkston, Stone Mountain, Berkeley Lake, Pine Lake, Tucker, Mountain
Park, Belmont, Mechanicsville and Redan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3390 8398 3372 8417 3389 8432 3399 8421
      3399 8419 3400 8418 3401 8418 3403 8416
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 319DEG 13KT 3391 8418

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
714 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

GAZ021-142345-
Cherokee GA-
714 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY UNTIL 745
PM EDT...

At 714 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Sutallee, or near
Canton...moving southeast at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Canton, Woodstock, Holly Springs, Waleska, Little River Landing,
Lebanon, Lake Arrowhead, Sutallee and Bridgemill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3431 8445 3412 8447 3414 8454 3419 8466
      3431 8465 3436 8463
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 293DEG 7KT 3425 8460

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
738 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

GAZ013-014-021-150015-
Dawson GA-Cherokee GA-Pickens GA-
738 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DAWSON...
NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE AND EASTERN PICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM
EDT...

At 738 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Marblehill, or near
Jasper. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Jasper, Dawsonville, Ball Ground, Nelson, Lake Tamarack, Hollis
Lathem Reservoir, Marblehill, Tate, Reavis Mountain, McKee, Juno and
Fausett Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3446 8409 3433 8424 3433 8426 3431 8426
      3426 8432 3443 8446 3457 8431
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 312DEG 4KT 3446 8433

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
751 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

GAZ021-150015-
Cherokee GA-
751 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTY UNTIL
815 PM EDT...

At 751 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Canton...moving
southeast at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Canton, Woodstock, Holly Springs, Buffington, Free Home, Little River
Landing, Hickory Flat, Lebanon, Union Hill, Holbrook, Lathemtown and
Bridgemill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3423 8426 3419 8429 3419 8433 3416 8436
      3413 8436 3412 8439 3411 8440 3411 8442
      3407 8442 3408 8451 3418 8464 3433 8451
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 304DEG 5KT 3422 8451

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
756 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

GAZ020-031-150030-
Bartow GA-Paulding GA-
756 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BARTOW AND NORTHERN
PAULDING COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

At 756 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Stilesboro, or 9 miles
southwest of Cartersville. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Cartersville, Dallas, Emerson, Braswell, Burnt Hickory Ridge and
Stilesboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3408 8493 3414 8490 3412 8475 3392 8485
      3399 8496
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 291DEG 4KT 3406 8490

WIND...50MPH