Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
200 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1111 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017/

UPDATE...

Forecast looks on track with minor adjustments made.

The overall coverage of thunderstorms has diminished the last hour
and anticipate much of the precipitation activity to be in the
form of light to moderate showers through the remainder of the
overnight. Expect pops to diminish as we approach the early
morning.

North/central GA has received generally around a half an inch to
an inch of rain. However, we have localized higher amounts around
2 to 3 inches from slow moving convection. With this amount of
QPE, we will need to closely monitor the forecast in the short
term. This rainfall could lead to antecedent conditions for
flooding issues in the days to come.

04Z TAF Update below.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 832 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017/

UPDATE...
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the
region this evening. This activity will linger through the next
couple hours before eventually diminishing. We have already seen a
decrease in thunderstorms, although some strong storms still
remain across south central GA area with a better thermal
gradient noted. These storms are trying to encroach into our area
with heavy rain, hail and strong winds possible. The other main
impacts this evening will be from any training shower/thunderstorms
leading to localized flood.

Expect a reprieve in precipitation later tonight into the early
morning hours. Anticipate low level clouds and fairly calm winds.

After closely diagnosing the short term, especially Monday late
afternoon through Tuesday, it looks like we may have the
ingredients for excessive rainfall across a portion of the area,
especially central GA. With high PWAT values surging into our area
along with increased RH, warm cloud height and low MBE velocity,
would not be surprised to see training showers and thunderstorms.
Also, with surface low pressure development later Monday to our
south with a series of mid level impulses marching northeast
across the area, anticipate we will be able to sufficiently tap
into the tropical-like airmass. There is a bit of concern for
flooding and its overall extent. While we are gaining confidence
that we will receive plentiful precipitation, the extent and
location of the precipitation is still a bit in question. So the
decision for a flash flood watch will be punted to the overnight
shift. Hopefully a bit more clarity will be derived from the next
model suite.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 300 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...
Moist is the word of the day which will likely be extended through
the short term.  12z FFC sounding came in with a 1.64 PWAT value
which puts us in the 90th percentile climatological and both SPC
mesoanalysis this afternoon and GOES 16 derived total precipital
water suggests values have increased through the day and are now 1.9
to 2.0 inches across the area. These higher values would put us
above the daily max moving average and basically suggest very
efficient rain producers with a potential for localized flash
flooding.  Unless there becomes a larger focus for storms...do not
anticipate widespread flooding and am not issuing any watches attm
as a result.   Short term models are rather erratic with overall
convective trends which is to be expected given the overall
environment and lack of any low level focus.  Used an ensemble blend
approach for POP this afternoon/evening to try and distinguish rain
cooled areas from heated up areas which seems to be working out well
with convection firing in central GA and AL where the sun had a
chance to come out early and SB CAPE values reached 3000 J/KG.
Expect much of the activity to begin to wane after sunset but will
still have showers around through the overnight period...could even
see some fog develop in a few spots as well...particularly in the
mountains of North GA.

Short term models fairly gung ho on Monday with storms becoming more
widespread by 17z and spreading across most of the warning area
through the day.  Front approaches from the north late Monday which
may help become a focus for heavier rains and will need to be
monitored.  WPC has placed most of North GA in a Marginal risk for
excessive rainfall today and almost all of the CWA in one for
Monday. While overall QPF values don't appear that high..aoa 1.5 to
2.0 inches..the rainfall rates are what needs to be watched for
flooding concerns.

30

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
Mainly only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.
The wet weather will be slow to exit Tuesday through Wednesday.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Extended period begins wet, but dries quickly. Aforementioned cold
front moving through the state Monday will keep pops high across
the far south CWA Tuesday as the front exits the region. Extended
models are in fairly good agreement that weak high pressure will
build into the region behind the front, with nearly zonal flow
over the area. Next system looks to approach the region Saturday,
but with timing and synoptic differences in the long term models,
have opted to keep pops minimal to none.

Temperatures will see a gradual warming trend through the week,
but even by Saturday will still only be in the mid 80s. Have
generally gone with a blend of the model solutions for both highs
and lows through the week.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
The TAF period will be marked by continued unsettled weather as
waves of showers and thunderstorms can be expected. Through this
morning, areas of showers are expected to gradually diminish in
overall coverage. Areas of IFR ceilings are expected this morning
with MVFR conditions becoming more prevalent after sunrise. Shower
and thunderstorm coverage will again increase by the afternoon
and evening hours. Winds that remain light and southeasterly at
some TAF sites at this hour will shift to the southwest later
this morning for all sites and stay westerly side for the
remainder of the period.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          83  67  80  63 /  90  80  60  20
Atlanta         81  68  79  64 /  90  80  60  20
Blairsville     77  62  76  56 /  90  70  50  10
Cartersville    81  66  79  60 /  90  80  50  10
Columbus        84  70  81  67 /  90  80  60  50
Gainesville     80  66  78  62 /  90  80  50  20
Macon           85  69  81  66 /  80  80  70  60
Rome            81  67  80  60 /  90  70  50  10
Peachtree City  82  67  79  62 /  90  80  60  30
Vidalia         86  71  83  68 /  90  70  70  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RW
AVIATION...RW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1040 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-051200-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1040 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will continue across much
of Georgia tonight. A few strong thunderstorms will be possible,
with the potential for frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds.
However, localized flooding will be the primary threat from the
storms overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday and
Tuesday. Drier air will spread into Georgia on Wednesday and
greatly diminish any thunderstorm potential through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
931 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2017

GAZ108>110-050200-
Telfair GA-Wilcox GA-Dodge GA-
931 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN TELFAIR...
SOUTHEASTERN WILCOX AND SOUTHWESTERN DODGE COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM
EDT...

At 930 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Bowens Mill, or 9
miles north of Fitzgerald. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Abbeville, Rhine, Temperance, Browning and Antioch Church.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3183 8315 3184 8317 3185 8318 3185 8321
      3184 8321 3185 8337 3201 8340 3201 8309
      3182 8313 3182 8315
TIME...MOT...LOC 0130Z 184DEG 4KT 3185 8325

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
943 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2017

GAZ085-086-097-098-050215-
Emanuel GA-Treutlen GA-Johnson GA-Laurens GA-
943 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN EMANUEL...TREUTLEN...
SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON AND EASTERN LAURENS COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM
EDT...

At 943 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Orianna, or near
Soperton...moving northeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Swainsboro, Soperton, Adrian, Nunez, Covena, Orland, Rockledge,
Orianna, Norristown, Norristown Junction, Meeks, Blackville, Zaidee
and Gillis Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3232 8258 3232 8261 3245 8274 3271 8247
      3251 8226
TIME...MOT...LOC 0143Z 228DEG 20KT 3243 8261

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
319 AM EDT MON JUN 5 2017

GAZ006>009-013>016-050800-
Gilmer GA-Dawson GA-Union GA-Towns GA-Pickens GA-White GA-Lumpkin GA-
Fannin GA-
319 AM EDT MON JUN 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GILMER...
NORTHWESTERN DAWSON...SOUTHERN UNION...SOUTHERN TOWNS...EASTERN
PICKENS...WHITE...LUMPKIN AND SOUTHEASTERN FANNIN COUNTIES UNTIL 400
AM EDT...

At 318 AM EDT...a thunderstorm with heavy rain was over Len Foote
Hike Inn, or 12 miles west of Dahlonega...moving east at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...Heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Heavy rain may cause temporary street flooding especially
           in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Dahlonega, Jasper, Cleveland, Helen, Suches, Unicoi State Park,
Amicalola Falls State Park, Sequoyah Lake, Robertstown, Blue Mountain
Shelter, Mossy Creek, Woods Hole Shelter, Low Gap Shelter, Juno,
Fausett Lake, Len Foote Hike Inn, Cartecay, Pisgah, Vogel State Park
and Anna Ruby Falls.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of
control due to hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3482 8365 3480 8368 3477 8363 3474 8362
      3469 8364 3466 8366 3462 8364 3458 8364
      3455 8362 3453 8364 3451 8367 3450 8378
      3452 8379 3450 8379 3450 8384 3449 8386
      3441 8443 3469 8445 3488 8365
TIME...MOT...LOC 0718Z 252DEG 35KT 3459 8419