Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
300 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...
Moist is the word of the day which will likely be extended through
the short term.  12z FFC sounding came in with a 1.64 PWAT value
which puts us in the 90th percentile climatological and both SPC
mesoanalysis this afternoon and GOES 16 derived total precipital
water suggests values have increased through the day and are now 1.9
to 2.0 inches across the area. These higher values would put us
above the daily max moving average and basically suggest very
efficient rain producers with a potential for localized flash
flooding.  Unless there becomes a larger focus for storms...do not
anticipate widespread flooding and am not issuing any watches attm
as a result.   Short term models are rather erratic with overall
convective trends which is to be expected given the overall
environment and lack of any low level focus.  Used an ensemble blend
approach for POP this afternoon/evening to try and distinguish rain
cooled areas from heated up areas which seems to be working out well
with convection firing in central GA and AL where the sun had a
chance to come out early and SB CAPE values reached 3000 J/KG.
Expect much of the activity to begin to wane after sunset but will
still have showers around through the overnight period...could even
see some fog develop in a few spots as well...particularly in the
mountains of North GA.

Short term models fairly gung ho on Monday with storms becoming more
widespread by 17z and spreading across most of the warning area
through the day.  Front approaches from the north late Monday which
may help become a focus for heavier rains and will need to be
monitored.  WPC has placed most of North GA in a Marginal risk for
excessive rainfall today and almost all of the CWA in one for
Monday. While overall QPF values don't appear that high..aoa 1.5 to
2.0 inches..the rainfall rates are what needs to be watched for
flooding concerns.

30

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
Mainly only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.
The wet weather will be slow to exit Tuesday through Wednesday.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Extended period begins wet, but dries quickly. Aforementioned cold
front moving through the state Monday will keep pops high across
the far south CWA Tuesday as the front exits the region. Extended
models are in fairly good agreement that weak high pressure will
build into the region behind the front, with nearly zonal flow
over the area. Next system looks to approach the region Saturday,
but with timing and synoptic differences in the long term models,
have opted to keep pops minimal to none.

Temperatures will see a gradual warming trend through the week,
but even by Saturday will still only be in the mid 80s. Have
generally gone with a blend of the model solutions for both highs
and lows through the week.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
overall look at the forecast says off and on showers and
thunderstorms through the period. Difficulty is in the timing
and determining the most active periods within the taf cycle.
Should see an uptick across Central GA west into AL this afternoon where
that area has had a chance to heat up and avoid many of the
clouds and rain from early this am. That activity should move back
across metro sites and AHN this evening...and is somewhat
advertised in short term models. Have kept tempo groups in at all
sites for tsra although most of the activity should be in the form
of shra. Given the rainfall intensities seen with the individual
storms and the high moisture content...expect a temp reduction in
vsby in any of the showers as well. Clouds will likely bounce
around as well but will likely settle in between 020 and 030
generally speaking until tonight when cigs could get down to 010
in most locations as the boundary layer moistens below the
inversion. Opted to put 015 in most sites overnight with a slow
increase monday am but could get temporarily lower overnight. More
showers and storms on tap Monday as a front approaches from the
north...will likely be a similar day to today overall. Winds are
the trickiest in this forecast as was expecting a switch to the SW
during the afternoon today but that isn't happening as forecast.
Will keep a SE component in metro sites through early evening
before bringing around to the SW.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
medium confidence on wind shift...weather timing...lower cigs
overnight

high confidence all other elements

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  83  67  80 /  70  90  80  60
Atlanta         69  81  68  79 /  60  90  80  60
Blairsville     63  77  62  76 /  60  90  70  50
Cartersville    68  81  66  79 /  70  90  80  50
Columbus        71  84  70  81 /  60  90  80  60
Gainesville     67  80  66  78 /  70  90  80  50
Macon           70  85  69  81 /  70  80  80  70
Rome            69  81  67  80 /  60  90  70  50
Peachtree City  68  82  67  79 /  70  90  80  60
Vidalia         72  86  71  83 /  50  90  70  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
506 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-051200-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
506 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of north
and central Georgia this morning through this evening. Isolated
storms could be strong with the main hazards being strong gusty
winds, frequent lightning and heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday and
Tuesday. Drier air will spread into Georgia on Wednesday and
greatly diminish any thunderstorm potential through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
522 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2017

GAZ071-081>084-094-095-042215-
Peach GA-Wilkinson GA-Monroe GA-Bibb GA-Houston GA-Crawford GA-
Twiggs GA-
522 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEACH...SOUTHWESTERN WILKINSON...
SOUTHWESTERN MONROE...BIBB...NORTHEASTERN HOUSTON...CRAWFORD AND
TWIGGS COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 520 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms extended from near
Roberta to Warner Robins to District Path, moving north at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail, frequent lightning and
           heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Macon, Fort Valley, Jeffersonville, Roberta, Irwinton, Warner Robins,
Centerville, Byron, Toomsboro, Danville, Allentown, Robins Air Force
Base, Marion, Tarversville, Lake Tobesofkee, Houston Lake,
Russellville, District Path, Powerville and Skipperton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3250 8372 3259 8407 3263 8406 3267 8410
      3293 8408 3281 8364 3283 8309 3258 8323
      3249 8342
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 193DEG 11KT 3265 8400 3257 8370 3256 8335

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
548 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2017

GAZ071>074-082>084-042245-
Wilkinson GA-Washington GA-Baldwin GA-Monroe GA-Bibb GA-Jones GA-
Twiggs GA-
548 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WILKINSON...WESTERN
WASHINGTON...SOUTHERN BALDWIN...MONROE...NORTHERN BIBB...JONES AND
NORTHERN TWIGGS COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 546 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms extended from
Culloden to Nicklesville, moving northeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...40 mph wind, pea sized hail, frequent lightning and heavy
           rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain will cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Macon, Forsyth, Gray, Irwinton, Gordon, Ivey, McIntyre, Toomsboro,
Payne, Payne City, Postell, Bradley, Wayside, Mountain Springs,
Griswoldville, Russellville, Wesleyan, Hebron, Arkwright and Collier.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3279 8307 3282 8365 3291 8408 3293 8407
      3293 8406 3295 8405 3295 8404 3299 8404
      3313 8398 3297 8286
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 219DEG 21KT 3283 8406 3271 8306

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
610 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2017

GAZ002>007-011-012-019-042300-
Chattooga GA-Gilmer GA-Whitfield GA-Catoosa GA-Walker GA-Gordon GA-
Murray GA-Floyd GA-Fannin GA-
610 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CHATTOOGA...
NORTHWESTERN GILMER...WHITFIELD...SOUTHEASTERN CATOOSA...SOUTHEASTERN
WALKER...NORTHERN GORDON...MURRAY...NORTHERN FLOYD AND NORTHWESTERN
FANNIN COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 609 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms extended from Big
Frog Mountain to Fort Mountain State Park and Subligna, moving east
at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail, frequent lightning and
           heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Dalton, Calhoun, Chatsworth, Ellijay, Blue Ridge, Trion, Varnell,
Eton, Tunnel Hill, Cohutta, East Ellijay, Resaca, Crandall, Sumac,
Subligna, Jones Mill, Higdon, Redbud, Gregory and Lake Marvin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3499 8423 3468 8444 3452 8481 3454 8539
      3498 8496 3499 8491
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 263DEG 11KT 3498 8454 3474 8465 3457 8524

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
655 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2017

GAZ067-079-042345-
Meriwether GA-Talbot GA-
655 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MERIWETHER AND TALBOT
COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

At 654 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Talbotton, moving
north at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent lightning, pea sized hail and
           heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Talbotton, Manchester, Woodland, Pleasant Hill, Flint Hill, Olive
Branch and Po Biddy Crossroads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3288 8459 3287 8448 3286 8449 3285 8448
      3286 8448 3285 8446 3283 8445 3282 8444
      3283 8444 3283 8443 3268 8441 3263 8461
      3278 8469 3282 8469
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 162DEG 7KT 3273 8454

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
707 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2017

GAZ001>005-007-011-012-050000-
Chattooga GA-Gilmer GA-Whitfield GA-Catoosa GA-Walker GA-Gordon GA-
Dade GA-Murray GA-
707 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CHATTOOGA...WESTERN
GILMER...WHITFIELD...SOUTHERN CATOOSA...WALKER...NORTHERN GORDON...
SOUTHWESTERN DADE AND MURRAY COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

At 705 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms extended from north
of Ellijay to south of Rising Fawn, moving east at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain will cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas as
           well as rising water on creeks and streams.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Dalton, Lafayette, Chatsworth, Ellijay, Trion, Eton, East Ellijay,
Resaca, Center Post, Subligna, Linwood, Cartecay, Villanow, Fort
Mountain State Park, Naomi, Rising Fawn, Carters, Tails Creek,
Ramhurst and Suttles Mill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3486 8462 3485 8442 3461 8438 3456 8506
      3459 8507 3459 8511 3455 8513 3452 8551
      3478 8557
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 271DEG 7KT 3467 8553 3470 8465

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
745 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2017

GAZ110-111-050030-
Wheeler GA-Telfair GA-
745 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WHEELER AND SOUTHERN
TELFAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

At 744 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms extended from south
of China Hill to near the Horse Creek WMA, moving northeast at 20
mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail, frequent lightning and
           heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Lumber City, Jacksonville, Towns, China Hill, Horse Creek Wma, Spring
Hill and Workmore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3181 8309 3181 8314 3192 8308 3202 8276
      3201 8260 3197 8254 3196 8257 3193 8259
      3194 8260 3193 8261 3192 8268 3190 8269
      3190 8270 3186 8278 3184 8279 3178 8289
      3179 8290 3179 8298 3178 8301
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 209DEG 16KT 3173 8256 3178 8285 3171 8311

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH