Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
428 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017

.SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...
Main focus on chance for severe convection. Near term, final round
of storms entering northeast AL at this writing, and showing signs
of weakening. Expect weakening to continue but with ample MLCAPE
and decent deep layer shear, could see a few severe storms thru
the rest of the night and into Sunday morning. After this final
round dissipates, should be fair with little precip. New convection
expected to develop in the afternoon well west of the area over
the lower MS valley into northern MS and develop into northern AL
tonight. Could see a few isolated storms develop late this
afternoon and perhaps some storms moving in from AL later tonight,
but no widespread strong or severe storms expected.

On Monday, 00Z model guidance shows broad troughing over the
midwest with trough axis developing back in the southern plains
and lower MS valley, which brings flow aloft to more SWly
direction. Deep layer shear improves again with 0-6km bulk shear
around 30-35kts and MLCAPE values progged back up to 2500-3500
J/kg with most favorable values over middle GA 18Z Mon-06Z Tue.
As it was current system, low level shear will be very weak and
any storms will likely be outflow dominant with little risk of
tornadoes.

SNELSON

.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...
As broad upper trough slides east over the northern states, weak
westerlies still in place over southern states Wed-Fri. Hard to
rule out isolated convection even after front pushes south of the
area Tues. Deep moisture finally spreads back in starting Thurs
night and TSRA chances go up slowly accordingly. More coverage
likely in afternoon/evening. Deep shear quite a bit weaker in this
pattern so severe storms not as likely as they are in current
pattern. Will still need to watch.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
08Z UPDATE...
Main concern is TSRA timing. Likely to see round of weakening
storms moving into ATL metro airports around 10Z and moving out
by 12Z. Cigs will likely be MVFR thru much of the day with BKN
cumulus. Sfc winds will remain SW a few gusts to 15-20kts likely
this afternoon.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

Medium on TSRA timing and likelihood.
High on remaining elements.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          87  70  87  67 /  30  20  20  30
Atlanta         86  71  84  68 /  40  30  30  30
Blairsville     80  63  79  61 /  60  50  40  40
Cartersville    85  68  83  66 /  70  40  30  30
Columbus        89  73  87  70 /  20  20  30  30
Gainesville     84  69  83  66 /  50  30  30  30
Macon           90  72  89  69 /  10  20  30  30
Rome            85  68  83  66 /  70  30  30  40
Peachtree City  86  70  85  67 /  30  30  30  30
Vidalia         92  74  92  72 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
the following zones: Bartow...Catoosa...Chattooga...Dade...
Floyd...Gordon...Murray...Walker...Whitfield.

&&

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...SNELSON

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
915 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-281815-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
915 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central
Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

The chance for thunderstorms will increase across far north Georgia
this evening into the overnight hours. A few of these storms could
become strong or severe with large hail, damaging winds, frequent
lightning, and even an isolated tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Thunderstorms will be possible Sunday and especially Monday as a
weak cold front moves through the state. The best chance for severe
storms will be on Monday with large hail, damaging winds heavy
rainfall and frequent lightning likely. As the front washes out,
moisture will linger and daytime heating will cause isolated
thunderstorms, some possibly strong, on Tuesday through Friday with
greater chances on Thursday and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged to
submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
416 AM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017

GAZ001>003-011-280845-
Chattooga GA-Catoosa GA-Walker GA-Dade GA-
416 AM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHATTOOGA...WESTERN CATOOSA...
WALKER AND SOUTHWESTERN DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 445 AM EDT...

At 416 AM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Rising Fawn to near Mentone to Desoto State Park
to near Yellow Creek Falls to near Sand Rock...and moving northeast
at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Lafayette, Summerville, Fort Oglethorpe, Chickamauga, Trion, Lyerly,
Menlo, Naomi, Center Post, Rising Fawn, Suttles Mill, Noble, Blue
Spring, Fairview, Linwood, Beaumont, Cloudland, Berryton,
Chattoogaville and Cloudland Canyon State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3498 8522 3471 8516 3459 8516 3431 8543
      3430 8546 3480 8557
TIME...MOT...LOC 0816Z 241DEG 38KT 3473 8556 3457 8554 3446 8560 3429
8571 3422 8579

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
434 AM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017

GAZ011-019-030-280900-
Chattooga GA-Polk GA-Floyd GA-
434 AM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CHATTOOGA...NORTHWESTERN
POLK AND FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 500 AM EDT...

At 434 AM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Chattoogaville to Waterhouse to Moshat...and moving
east at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Rome, Cedartown, Aragon, Cave Spring, Shannon, Lyerly, Fish Creek,
Pinson, Lindale, Armuchee, Seney, Coosa, Chattoogaville and Holland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3444 8510 3443 8509 3441 8511 3441 8510
      3439 8501 3435 8501 3435 8502 3426 8502
      3425 8501 3425 8502 3421 8502 3421 8505
      3408 8505 3408 8502 3400 8514 3403 8541
      3441 8549
TIME...MOT...LOC 0834Z 272DEG 33KT 3434 8542 3419 8549 3411 8561

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

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