Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
720 AM EDT Thu May 4 2017

.SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...

First wave of precipitation associated with the complex system that
will be impacting the region over the next few days is currently
sweeping east into the forecast area. Gulf coast convection appears
to be limiting the instability and moisture farther north across our
forecast area somewhat this morning, but enough potential for
isolated thunder to keep it in the forecast for this morning. Better
chance for strong to severe convection later in the afternoon
through the evening as the surface cold front pushes through. Ample
shear and marginal instability combined with the strong low-level
convergence and mid-level dynamics support at least a marginal
threat for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Lapse rates remain
weak and hail threat still looks minimal. Upper low settles into the
southeastern U.S. tonight through Friday with scattered to numerous
showers redeveloping over the northern 2/3 of the forecast area by
Friday morning, and continuing through the day. Better chances
remain across the far north. Right now it appears that the
atmosphere will remain too stable for thunder as the showers spread
back into the state late tonight and Friday, but plenty of cold air
in the mid-levels associated with the upper low will merit some
small possibility that the shallow convection may produce some small
hail or graupel and even a flash or two of lightning.

Surface winds ramp up through the morning as well with Wind Advisory
level winds still expected across much of north Georgia through the
day. Winds should settle some as we head into the evening and
overnight through Friday, but will remain moderate and gusty at
times.

After a rain-cooled but otherwise mild day today, temperatures drop
well below seasonal normals tonight and Friday.

20

.LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...

A deep closed upper low sits over the TN Valley region at the
beginning of the period. The low gradually fills and pushes
eastward over the Appalachians through Saturday night. Wrap around
showers will affect much of north and central GA Friday night and
mainly north GA Saturday and Saturday night. Northwesterly flow
will dominate the state for the remainder of the period as a deep
trough settles off the Atlantic Coast and the upper ridge builds
west of the MS river. A short wave drops into the Appalachians
Tuesday into Wednesday...but have left us dry for now due to
uncertainty of amount of moisture. Cool temperatures will continue
into the weekend...but begin to recover by the first of the week.
Models in general agreement through the period.

41

&&

AVIATION...
12Z Update...

Large area of light to moderate precipitation spreading north and
east across the forecast area at this time. Mainly rain with
embedded showers. best chance for showers, and even some isolated
thunder, will be across the southern TAF sites (KCSG/KMCN) this
morning. Ceilings should lower as this precipitation spreads over
the area with most places MVFR by 16-18Z. Will see a bit of a break
in the precipitation between 16Z and 20Z, although scattered showers
will linger over the area. A line of stronger showers and some
thunderstorms will sweep east across the region between 20Z and 04Z.
Southeast winds 6-10kt will increase into the 10-15kt range w/ gusts
over 20kt between 12Z and 16Z, continuing through the day. Winds
will decrease some and become southwest between 00Z and 06Z from
west to east across the area.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...

Medium on all elements, mainly due to medium confidence on the
timing of the waves of precipitation with this compound weather
system.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  51  60  46 /  60  60  30  20
Atlanta         70  50  60  48 /  70  60  40  30
Blairsville     67  48  55  42 /  70  60  60  60
Cartersville    68  50  58  46 /  70  60  50  30
Columbus        73  52  65  49 /  80  40  30  10
Gainesville     70  50  60  47 /  60  60  50  30
Macon           73  51  65  47 /  80  60  20  10
Rome            68  49  58  46 /  80  50  60  40
Peachtree City  70  51  62  45 /  80  60  40  20
Vidalia         79  57  69  51 /  80  60  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
for the following zones: Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Carroll...
Catoosa...Chattooga...Cherokee...Cobb...Dade...Dawson...DeKalb...
Douglas...Fannin...Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer...Gordon...
Gwinnett...Hall...Haralson...Jackson...Lumpkin...Murray...North
Fulton...Paulding...Pickens...Polk...South Fulton...Towns...
Union...Walker...White...Whitfield.

&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
429 AM EDT Thu May 4 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-050830-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
429 AM EDT Thu May 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Isolated strong to possibly severe storms are possible today into
this evening across parts of north and central Georgia.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase across Georgia
today. A few storms may become severe over central Georgia this
morning...and area wide this afternoon and evening. The main
threats will be strong gusty winds and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
822 AM EDT THU MAY 4 2017

GAZ005>008-012>015-020-021-041315-
Gilmer GA-Dawson GA-Union GA-Cherokee GA-Gordon GA-Bartow GA-
Pickens GA-Murray GA-Lumpkin GA-Fannin GA-
822 AM EDT THU MAY 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GILMER...NORTHWESTERN DAWSON...
UNION...NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE...EASTERN GORDON...BARTOW...PICKENS...
SOUTHEASTERN MURRAY...NORTHWESTERN LUMPKIN AND FANNIN COUNTIES UNTIL
915 AM EDT...

At 818 AM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar
and surface observations indicated a wake low developing on the
north side of the precipitation shield near Blaine, or 8 miles
northwest of Jasper. The wake low will produce strong gusty winds.
As many as 60 trees were reported downed in Floyd County as a result
of this wake low.

  HAZARD...strong gusty winds.

  IMPACT...Strong winds have developed behind a storm system. Expect
           an increased potential for downed trees and
           powerlines...along with blowing around of unsecured
           objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Cartersville, Calhoun, Jasper, Ellijay, Blue Ridge, Blairsville,
Adairsville, Euharlee, White, Kingston, East Ellijay, Morganton,
Talking Rock, Suches, Cassville, Fairmount, Ranger, Amicalola Falls
State Park, Jones Creek and Fausett Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

LAT...LON 3479 8380 3476 8383 3409 8502 3442 8501
      3499 8424 3499 8415
TIME...MOT...LOC 1218Z 232DEG 45KT 3455 8454

WIND...50MPH