Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
811 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 336 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017/

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

Progressive pattern will continue through the short-term as an omega
block remains anchored over western Europe. Current water vapor loop
shows the center of a strong closed mid level low over southwest
Missouri...with several shortwaves rotating about cyclonic flow to
the south of this main low. This system is being pushed east by
potent...digging trough across the western US. Analysis of latest
sfc data reveals developing low pressure across eastern Missouri and
associated cold front draped south through lower Mississippi Valley
into the western Gulf. Warm front extends east and then southeast
across OH Valley and into Southern Appalachians...where it basically
marks the wedge front boundary from high pressure ridge extending
down Eastern US from Canada.

Radar mosaic beginning to finally light up to our west...while
activity continues to our east along and ahead of the wedge/warm
front. Large complex of thunderstorms across Gulf Coast has been
slow to move today...and is showing somewhat of a weakening trend.
Evolution of this activity into the evening hours introduces
forecast uncertainty...with many factors at play.

SPC mesoanalysis continues to portray dual jet dynamics across the
northern Gulf where right entrance region of polar jet
/associated with main closed low/ and left exit region of
subtropical jet /associated with southern shortwave/ are helping to
aid the Gulf Coast complex. As this system continues to push east
into our area...heights will continue to fall and broad scale ascent
will increase. Right now...indications are for the dual jet to
weaken as closed low moves northeast and southern wave moves east.
This would act to weaken the storm complex over the Gulf and not
completely shut off our moisture transport. However...there is the
potential for left exit region of subtropical jet to sustain the
complex into the FL panhandle and rob us some moisture.
However...as/if these processes occur...main closed low will take on
a negative tilt...which will enhance lift across a good majority of
Ga...regardless of Gulf evolution. So...all in all...evolution will
be a matter of which process is dominant.

With the above in mind...Storm development /supercellular in nature/
has already occurred across southern AL out ahead of the Gulf
complex. See no reason why these storms will not sustain themselves
through the daylight hours as adequate insolation has resulted in at
least 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. These storms will carry severe potential
should they move into western/SW Georgia later this afternoon given
increasing shear amidst unstable airmass. Think eventually discrete
activity will evolve into a cluster of thunderstorms /given veer-
back-veer wind profiles/ and move across majority of the area
overnight tonight into very early Friday. Regardless of discrete or
line activity....potential will exist for severe activity through
much of the overnight hours....just hard to say where exactly
largest threat will reside. All threats will be possible:
wind...hail...tornadoes. Will also monitor line of storms along the
cold front currently in western TN Valley...as this activity will
have strong lift to support it as it moves east tonight...though
aforementioned activity make have a negative effect on it.

Should see rapid clearing of precip Friday with perhaps some cu
lingering in the wake of the cold front. Surface high pressure will
be building in from the north Friday so expecting a pleasant
day...which will continue into the extended.

Kovacik

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

Forecast looks on track with the next system arriving Monday.
Model difference in location of the low will ultimately impact
thunderstorm coverage and severity. However, it is safe to say we
will be receiving beneficial rains Monday into early Tuesday.
Models are weakening the system for mid-next week. Above normal
temperatures through the period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017/

Warm and sunny weather returns just in time for the weekend with
upper ridging in control. Temperatures will be well above average
both Saturday and Sunday with highs by Sunday nearing 80 in north
Georgia and well into the mid 80s in central Georgia.

The tranquil weather comes to a quick end as the active pattern revs
back up. By late Sunday clouds will begin increasing ahead of the
next storm system with rain close behind. This next system will
follow a more southerly track than previous systems. The GFS brings
the surface low across southern Tennessee into north Carolina on
Monday while the ECMWF is a bit slower and farther north with the
center of the low. Regardless, expect widespread rain and
thunderstorms to overspread the area on Monday. The potential for
strong thunderstorms as well as heavy rainfall will also be a
concern during the Monday time. As the upper low passes overhead or
just north of the CWA Monday night into Tuesday morning, wraparound
rainfall can be expected into at least part of the day Tuesday.

Wednesday looks largely dry at this time, but the break in
storminess will again be brief as the progressive pattern continues.
The next storm system will already be knocking on the door of the
area, though there are model discrepancies with the timing.
Nonetheless, showers and thunderstorms will returning by the
Wednesday night into Thursday timeframe.

26/RW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Initial showers/storms and some possible MVFR cig and VSBY
lowering pushing north across TAF sites this evening. Have tempo
for TSRA initially from about 01-05z and may need to extend later
if another area develops to the west of the current zone. Expect
MVFR cigs hanging around through the morning though cannot rule
out a break between precip areas. Winds initial SSW 7-12 kts and
some gusts becoming more West for Friday at 10-15 kts gusting
20-22 kts. Cigs should have some lifting/scattering by 18z Friday.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium on TSRA and cig trends overnight.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          61  75  50  80 /  90  50   5   0
Atlanta         60  73  50  76 /  90  20   5   0
Blairsville     56  65  44  70 /  90  50   5   0
Cartersville    58  71  47  74 /  90  10   5   0
Columbus        62  77  53  82 /  90  30   5   0
Gainesville     59  70  49  76 /  90  40   5   0
Macon           63  78  51  81 /  80  60   5   0
Rome            57  71  47  75 /  90  10   5   0
Peachtree City  59  74  48  78 /  90  20   5   0
Vidalia         64  82  55  83 /  60  70   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Kovacik
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...Baker

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
745 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-311915-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
745 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central
Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Thunderstorm chances will increase across the area from west to east
this evening into the overnight hours. Some thunderstorms will
likely be strong to severe. Damaging winds, large hail, and a few
brief tornadoes will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Thunderstorms will continue to exit central Georgia Friday morning.
The next chance for thunderstorms will be Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should be prepared for activation, especially during the
late evening and overnight hours tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
921 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

GAZ031>033-043-044-310200-
North Fulton GA-Douglas GA-Cobb GA-Paulding GA-South Fulton GA-
921 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH FULTON...DOUGLAS...COBB...
EASTERN PAULDING AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM
EDT...

At 920 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Chapel Hill, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud-to-
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Atlanta, Marietta, Douglasville, Dallas, Sandy Springs, Smyrna,
Kennesaw, Acworth, Villa Rica, Powder Springs, Austell, Hiram, Lithia
Springs, Fair Oaks, Mount Bethel, Lost Mountain Park, Vinings,
Brownsville, Bill Arp and Cross Roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3368 8490 3370 8490 3408 8474 3406 8444
      3391 8435 3357 8472 3367 8489
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 215DEG 38KT 3369 8476

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
929 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE CEDAR CREEK        33.88N  84.09W
03/30/2017                   GWINNETT           GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF A TREE BLOWN OVER ONTO A HOUSE

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1700379

THIEM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
934 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

GAZ023>025-035-037-310215-
Banks GA-Hall GA-Jackson GA-Barrow GA-Oconee GA-
934 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BANKS...EASTERN HALL...
JACKSON...BARROW AND NORTHWESTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM
EDT...

At 933 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Winder, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud-to-
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Winder, Jefferson, Commerce, Homer, Statham, Maysville, Arcade,
Nicholson, Hoschton, Bogart, Bethlehem, Pendergrass, Gillsville,
Talmo, Bear Creek Reservoir, Peach State Speedway, Fort Yargo State
Park, Russell, Apple Valley and Banks Crossing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3438 8345 3424 8335 3421 8337 3420 8340
      3417 8338 3397 8352 3397 8354 3396 8353
      3389 8358 3389 8363 3391 8364 3392 8367
      3390 8371 3396 8378 3436 8367
TIME...MOT...LOC 0133Z 202DEG 32KT 3401 8365

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
935 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SHILOH FARMS            33.82N  84.07W
03/30/2017                   GWINNETT           GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION OF BETHANY CHURCH RD AND WATERS WAY IN
            SNELLVILLE

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1700380

THIEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
939 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E THE LANDINGS        33.80N  84.08W
03/30/2017                   GWINNETT           GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF A TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1700381

THIEM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
939 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

GAZ052-053-066-067-078-310230-
Harris GA-Coweta GA-Troup GA-Heard GA-Meriwether GA-
939 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HARRIS...COWETA...
EASTERN TROUP...SOUTHEASTERN HEARD AND MERIWETHER COUNTIES UNTIL 1030
PM EDT...

At 938 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms extended from near
Corinth to Mountville to the F.D. Roosevelt State Park, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud-to-ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding, especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Newnan, LaGrange, Hamilton, Greenville, Palmetto, Hogansville,
Grantville, Pine Mountain, Woodbury, Luthersville, Whitesburg, Warm
Springs, Moreland, Sharpsburg, Turin, Lone Oak, Gay, East Newnan,
Corinth and Plant Yates.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3344 8493 3345 8492 3348 8490 3349 8486
      3351 8485 3351 8464 3300 8457 3268 8485
      3291 8497 3322 8504
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 203DEG 32KT 3326 8490 3303 8488 3283 8484

WIND...40MPH