Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
729 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for the 00Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 343 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Frontal boundary moving east of the Arklatex. A pre-frontal
trough/convective line has developed just east of the MS river and
is also moving eastward.

Hi-res models keep the line moving across AL and entering the
western portions of the CWFA later this afternoon into the early
evening hours. Models have been pretty consistent with weakening the
line as it moves through. However, there should be enough
instability/mid level energy/steep lapse rates to support some
strong/isolated severe thunderstorms. In addition, the hi-res models
bring in another round of storms overnight, mostly associated with
the cold front. These storms could also be strong with the potential
for isolated severe. The main threats for any severe thunderstorms
would be damaging wind gusts and large hail.

The frontal boundary looks to sag slowly southward during the day
tomorrow. Convection should fire along any old outflow boundaries
from the overnight convection and/or the weak front. With copious
cloud cover, marginal surface instability and weak lapse rates,
storm coverage should be limited to iso/sct and the potential for
strong/severe should be limited.

NListemaa

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
Limited changes through the extended period aside from slight
massaging for latest model consensus. Overall, forecast looks on
track. Previous forecast discussion is included below.

31

/Issued 337 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017/
At the beginning of the forecast period, the system that traversed
the area on Tuesday will have exited eastward. As upper ridging
builds in on Wednesday a warm and generally drier day can be
expected. A few showers or an isolated thunderstorm can't be ruled
in the vicinity of a remnant weak boundary, but most places will
remain dry.

Rain chances will be increasing again by Thursday afternoon,
especially across eastern sections of the area where showers and a
few thunderstorms will develop near the wedge front along the
periphery of the CAD airmass over the Carolinas.

The opportunity for showers and thunderstorms will increase in
earnest Thursday night into Friday morning across the remainder of
the area as the primary storm system approaches the area from the
west. There is generally better model agreement with regard to the
track of this system as the parent low lifts across the Midwest into
the Ohio Valley. This system evolution would favor the chance for
some strong to severe thunderstorms in our region with 0-6 km bulk
shear values as high as 40-60 knots and 0-1 km values around 30
knots during the Friday morning time frame. Forecast instability is
not overly high, but the several hundred J/kg of CAPE forecast by
the GFS would likely still be sufficient given aforementioned shear
values and favorable upper dynamics. One thing to note is that
models have been indicating the development of weak low pressure
along the Gulf coast which could rob some instability. Nevertheless,
the severe potential with this system late Thursday into Friday
morning will continue to be watched over the coming days.

After this system departs Friday, upper ridging once again takes
hold for the weekend. At this point next weekend's weather appears
benign with warm and dry weather before models diverge on the timing
and details of the next storm system for early next week.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Convection over NE AL should stay north of the ATL area although a
few showers could still occur this evening over ATL/AHN...end in
the ATL area by 06Z but could remain over AHN through the night.
Convection could re-initiate with daytime heating across all
areas Tuesday afternoon. Winds will be calm or light southwest
tonight...becoming west 5 to 10 kts Tuesday. VFR cigs through this
evening. IFR cigs will develop/advect into the forecast area
tonight...becoming VFR by noon Tuesday.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium on convection tonight and Tuesday.
Medium on timing of IFR cigs tonight.
High on remaining elements.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          58  79  56  84 /  40  30   5   5
Atlanta         60  77  58  82 /  40  30   5  20
Blairsville     55  73  50  77 /  80  30  10   5
Cartersville    59  77  54  81 /  60  30  10  10
Columbus        61  80  61  86 /  30  30   5  20
Gainesville     58  76  55  81 /  60  30   5   5
Macon           58  81  58  84 /  30  20   5  20
Rome            58  78  53  81 /  70  30  10  10
Peachtree City  59  77  56  83 /  30  30  10  20
Vidalia         60  84  62  85 /  20  10   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for the
following zones: Catoosa...Chattooga...Dade...Floyd...Gordon...
Murray...Walker...Whitfield.

&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...17

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
415 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-281000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
415 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected primarily over north Georgia
this afternoon into tonight. A few storms could be strong to
severe with gusty winds, frequent lightning, and hail. A brief
tornado is possible over the far northwest.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

The chance for thunderstorms will increase Thursday evening into
Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
510 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

GAZ002-011-272145-
Chattooga GA-Walker GA-
510 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHATTOOGA AND WALKER
COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

At 510 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Cloudland, or near
Summerville...moving northeast at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail...frequent
           cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Lafayette, Summerville, Trion, Menlo, Naomi, Center Post, Linwood,
Suttles Mill, Noble, Villanow, Cloudland and Berryton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3487 8534 3478 8520 3477 8520 3475 8515
      3472 8517 3472 8510 3469 8505 3442 8537
      3450 8551 3457 8552
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 214DEG 37KT 3454 8541

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
539 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

GAZ002-003-272215-
Catoosa GA-Walker GA-
539 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CATOOSA AND WALKER COUNTIES UNTIL
615 PM EDT...

At 539 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Noble, or near
Lafayette...moving northeast at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail...frequent
           cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Ringgold, Fort Oglethorpe, Chickamauga, Noble, Lakeview, Indian
Springs, Wood Station, Graysville, Blue Spring, Fairview, Boynton,
Beaumont, Rock Spring, East Ridge and Apison.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3497 8498 3497 8500 3492 8501 3491 8502
      3489 8502 3486 8504 3486 8506 3484 8506
      3482 8508 3481 8512 3482 8513 3472 8517
      3472 8516 3469 8518 3477 8538 3499 8527
      3499 8498
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 207DEG 33KT 3480 8524

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
544 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

GAZ011-019-272215-
Chattooga GA-Floyd GA-
544 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHATTOOGA AND FLOYD COUNTIES
UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 544 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Holland, or 10 miles
south of Summerville...moving northeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail...frequent
           cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Rome, Summerville, Trion, Lyerly, Subligna, Tidings, Armuchee, Coosa,
Berryton, Chattoogaville, Everett Springs, James H. Floyd State Park
and Holland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3459 8539 3459 8537 3458 8536 3458 8535
      3459 8535 3459 8526 3452 8509 3451 8509
      3422 8530 3429 8546 3436 8548
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 204DEG 21KT 3434 8537

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
649 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

GAZ003-272315-
Catoosa GA-
649 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CATOOSA COUNTY UNTIL 715 PM
EDT...

At 649 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Boynton, or near
Ringgold...moving northeast at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...nickel sized hail and frequent cloud
           to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Ringgold, Fort Oglethorpe, Boynton, Lakeview, Indian Springs,
Graysville, Blue Spring, East Ridge, Fairview and Apison.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3498 8498 3497 8500 3496 8501 3482 8516
      3490 8527 3498 8527 3499 8526 3499 8498
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 218DEG 42KT 3495 8519

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...50MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
741 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

GAZ005>007-280015-
Gilmer GA-Murray GA-Fannin GA-
741 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GILMER...
SOUTHEASTERN MURRAY AND NORTHERN FANNIN COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

At 740 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Fort Mountain State
Park, or near Chatsworth...moving northeast at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...nickel sized hail and frequent cloud
           to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Chatsworth, Blue Ridge, Morganton, Tails Creek, Ramhurst, Jones Mill,
Higdon, Epworth, Conasauga Lake, Mineral Bluff, Cherry Log,
Mountaintown, Fort Mountain State Park, Colwell and Copperhill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3499 8431 3488 8420 3461 8470 3475 8484
      3499 8454
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 230DEG 39KT 3473 8471

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...50MPH