Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
755 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

A cold front is currently situated along the GA/TN border. This
boundary will continue to sag southward overnight and Wednesday.
Still monitoring conditions for potentially severe weather late this
afternoon amd evening.

18Z FFC sounding shows very steep mid level lapse rates in place
along with ~1500 j/kg of surface based CAPE. However, moisture is
the column is lacking. Have seen some cu pop this afternoon, and
even with the favorable conditions, convection has not fired. Matter
of fact, weak showers that developed across south central TN
diminished as they moved southward.

The hi-res models are now developing some isold/sct convection out
ahead of the main complex late this afternoon. However, the main
system will be related to the complex currently pushing south across
western TN. Models continue to evolve this into a MCS that moves
across northern GA during the early evening hours. The hi-res models
keep most of the activity north of the Interstate 20 corridor. The
main mode of any severe weather that develops will be large hail and
damaging wind gusts.

Even now, there isn't much convergence along the frontal boundary.
Do expect shra/tsra to diminish overnight with the loss of heating
and any mid level support. With little surface moisture and lacking
frontal forcing on Wednesday, so have removed pops.

NListemaa

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...

Medium-range models continue to show a progressive pattern through
the extended forecast period. General timing of the various features
translating through the flow will vary somewhat from run-to-run,
however 12Z run does not show significant deviation from the
previous cycle, and little change was made to the Long Term Forecast
grids at this time. Please see the previous Long Term Forecast
Discussion below.

20

Previous LONG TERM Discussion /Wednesday Night through Monday/...

A front will cross the region Wednesday with strong high pressure
building in from the north. Given some mid-level impulses and
residual moisture within the column, some model solutions are
hinting at scattered showers through Thursday. Kept a schc pop to
account for this with the understanding that the apparent high
will likely win out, limiting precipitation coverage overall. So,
anticipate cloudy skies and much cooler temperatures Thursday
under northeast/easterly flow. Temperatures may run 10 degrees or
so below normal..in the low/mid 50s in north GA and around 60
within central GA.

Mid-level ridging will cross the region with the surface high
staying locked into place across north/northeast GA through much
of Friday. This will keep temperatures around climo for Friday.
The high will move out to sea Friday night into Saturday allowing
return flow to develop. Given this, we expect dry conditions
Friday through much of Saturday ahead of the next storm system.

A potent closed low will drop out of the Rockies and
quickly move east through the weekend. The models have
started to slow this feature the last couple of runs and also a
weakening trend has been noted. A front will approach from the
west late Saturday and slowly drape across northern GA before
becoming washed out Sunday night. Given the upper level support is
weakening with a broad surface boundary, feeling the overall
coverage and intensity of any thunderstorm activity is waning at
this point.

Another weak impulse will approach Monday afternoon, helping to
initiate shower activity across the residual boundary in north
GA. From this, you might gain the perspective that central
GA will likely see little in the way of precipitation amounts
through the long term...and you would be correct as much of the
dynamics will be lofted to the north.

Above normal temperatures expected through most of the long term,
apart from cooler airmass Thursday into early Friday.

26

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...

Cold front will continue to sag south overnight and into early
Wednesday. Showers and strong to severe thunderstorms will
continue to sag southeast into GA this evening. Not confident
the storms will make it as far south and KMCN and KCSG.
MVFR conditions possible toward morning...but VFR conditions
expected for the afternoon on Wednesday. Winds will remain
west to northwest tonight with occasional gusts in strong
storms. Winds becoming northeast after 16z Wednesday.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...

High confidence all elements...except medium on mvfr in the
morning.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          57  71  43  54 /  60  10  20  20
Atlanta         57  72  47  54 /  40  10  20  20
Blairsville     50  66  38  51 /  70  10  20  20
Cartersville    54  68  45  55 /  50  10  20  20
Columbus        60  79  54  61 /  10  10  20  20
Gainesville     55  70  43  52 /  60  10  20  20
Macon           60  76  50  57 /  10  10  20  20
Rome            54  67  44  57 /  50  10  20  20
Peachtree City  55  73  48  55 /  20  10  20  20
Vidalia         62  75  51  58 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for the
following zones: Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Catoosa...Chattooga...
Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Dade...Dawson...DeKalb...
Douglas...Fannin...Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer...Gordon...Greene...
Gwinnett...Hall...Henry...Jackson...Lumpkin...Madison...Morgan...
Murray...Newton...North Fulton...Oconee...Oglethorpe...
Paulding...Pickens...Polk...Rockdale...South Fulton...
Taliaferro...Towns...Union...Walker...Walton...White...
Whitfield...Wilkes.

&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...41

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1200 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-221115-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1200 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central
Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across portions
of north Georgia this afternoon through the evening hours. A few of
these storms could produce large hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

There is a chance of thunderstorms across north Georgia Saturday
through Sunday.

Otherwise, no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
741 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

GAZ013>015-220015-
Dawson GA-Pickens GA-Lumpkin GA-
741 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DAWSON...EASTERN
PICKENS AND SOUTHWESTERN LUMPKIN COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

At 741 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Lake Tamarack, or near
Jasper...moving east at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and nickel sized hail.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Jasper, Dawsonville, Amicalola Falls State Park, Sequoyah Lake, Lake
Tamarack, Marblehill, Tate, Nimblewill, McKee, Juno and Fausett Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

LAT...LON 3445 8405 3440 8438 3455 8444 3455 8437
      3456 8437 3457 8430 3457 8426 3458 8425
      3460 8412
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 255DEG 32KT 3448 8433

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...40MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
748 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     LIGHTNING        2 N RED STONE           34.08N  83.51W
03/21/2017                   JACKSON            GA   PUBLIC

            RECEIVED A REPORT OF LIGHTNING STRIKING A HOME ALONG
            JEFFERSON RIVER ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1700275

KING

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
748 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

GAZ006>009-015-016-220015-
Gilmer GA-Union GA-Towns GA-White GA-Lumpkin GA-Fannin GA-
748 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN GILMER...UNION...SOUTHERN
TOWNS...WHITE...NORTHERN LUMPKIN AND SOUTHEASTERN FANNIN COUNTIES
UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

At 748 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Blood Mountain
Shelter, or 8 miles south of Blairsville...moving southeast at 45
mph.

  HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and nickel sized hail.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Dahlonega, Cleveland, Blairsville, Helen, Suches, Unicoi State Park,
Robertstown, Blue Mountain Shelter, Woods Hole Shelter, Low Gap
Shelter, Vogel State Park, Anna Ruby Falls, Stover Creek Shelter,
Turners Corner, Sautee, Gaddistown, Qualatchee Lake, Camp Merrill,
Whitley Gap Shelter and Springer Mountain Shelter.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

LAT...LON 3481 8366 3480 8368 3479 8368 3476 8363
      3468 8364 3466 8366 3463 8365 3460 8365
      3450 8378 3452 8378 3450 8379 3465 8428
      3473 8427 3470 8401 3491 8396
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 294DEG 40KT 3475 8395

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...40MPH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
755 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0733 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEW ENGLAND             34.91N  85.48W
03/21/2017                   DADE               GA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN AND ALL LANES OF TRAFFIC ARE
            BLOCKED ON I-59 SOUTHBOUND AT MILE MARKER 17.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1700277

KING

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
800 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

GAZ035-037-047-049-220030-
Morgan GA-Walton GA-Barrow GA-Oconee GA-
800 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MORGAN...NORTHEASTERN
WALTON...SOUTHERN BARROW AND OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

At 800 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Campton, or near
Winder...moving east at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Winder, Monroe, Statham, Bogart, North High Shoals, Bethlehem,
Bostwick, Between, Good Hope, Bishop, Fort Yargo State Park, Bold
Springs, Eastville, Nicholasville, Campton, Russell, Gratis and
Farmington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3371 8338 3370 8339 3381 8384 3391 8382
      3393 8380 3396 8382 3399 8381 3399 8355
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 277DEG 20KT 3389 8374

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH