Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
335 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

A cold front is currently situated along the GA/TN border. This
boundary will continue to sag southward overnight and Wednesday.
Still monitoring conditions for potentially severe weather late this
afternoon amd evening.

18Z FFC sounding shows very steep mid level lapse rates in place
along with ~1500 j/kg of surface based CAPE. However, moisture is
the column is lacking. Have seen some cu pop this afternoon, and
even with the favorable conditions, convection has not fired. Matter
of fact, weak showers that developed across south central TN
diminished as they moved southward.

The hi-res models are now developing some isold/sct convection out
ahead of the main complex late this afternoon. However, the main
system will be related to the complex currently pushing south across
western TN. Models continue to evolve this into a MCS that moves
across northern GA during the early evening hours. The hi-res models
keep most of the activity north of the Interstate 20 corridor. The
main mode of any severe weather that develops will be large hail and
damaging wind gusts.

Even now, there isn't much convergence along the frontal boundary.
Do expect shra/tsra to diminish overnight with the loss of heating
and any mid level support. With little surface moisture and lacking
frontal forcing on Wednesday, so have removed pops.

NListemaa

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...

Medium-range models continue to show a progressive pattern through
the extended forecast period. General timing of the various features
translating through the flow will vary somewhat from run-to-run,
however 12Z run does not show significant deviation from the
previous cycle, and little change was made to the Long Term Forecast
grids at this time. Please see the previous Long Term Forecast
Discussion below.

20

Previous LONG TERM Discussion /Wednesday Night through Monday/...

A front will cross the region Wednesday with strong high pressure
building in from the north. Given some mid-level impulses and
residual moisture within the column, some model solutions are
hinting at scattered showers through Thursday. Kept a schc pop to
account for this with the understanding that the apparent high
will likely win out, limiting precipitation coverage overall. So,
anticipate cloudy skies and much cooler temperatures Thursday
under northeast/easterly flow. Temperatures may run 10 degrees or
so below normal..in the low/mid 50s in north GA and around 60
within central GA.

Mid-level ridging will cross the region with the surface high
staying locked into place across north/northeast GA through much
of Friday. This will keep temperatures around climo for Friday.
The high will move out to sea Friday night into Saturday allowing
return flow to develop. Given this, we expect dry conditions
Friday through much of Saturday ahead of the next storm system.

A potent closed low will drop out of the Rockies and
quickly move east through the weekend. The models have
started to slow this feature the last couple of runs and also a
weakening trend has been noted. A front will approach from the
west late Saturday and slowly drape across northern GA before
becoming washed out Sunday night. Given the upper level support is
weakening with a broad surface boundary, feeling the overall
coverage and intensity of any thunderstorm activity is waning at
this point.

Another weak impulse will approach Monday afternoon, helping to
initiate shower activity across the residual boundary in north
GA. From this, you might gain the perspective that central
GA will likely see little in the way of precipitation amounts
through the long term...and you would be correct as much of the
dynamics will be lofted to the north.

Above normal temperatures expected through most of the long term,
apart from cooler airmass Thursday into early Friday.

26

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...

Cold front will continue to sag south overnight and into early
Wednesday. A large area of shra/tsra is expected across portions
of north GA late this afternoon and evening. Not confident that
the thunderstorms will make it as far south as ATL, but am
hesitant to remove them from the TAF. MVFR conditions possible
overnight, but VFR cigs/vsbys expected for the afternoon on
Tuesday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

High confidence all elements.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          57  71  43  54 /  60  10  20  20
Atlanta         57  72  47  54 /  40  10  20  20
Blairsville     50  66  38  51 /  70  10  20  20
Cartersville    54  68  45  55 /  50  10  20  20
Columbus        60  79  54  61 /  10  10  20  20
Gainesville     55  70  43  52 /  60  10  20  20
Macon           60  76  50  57 /  10  10  20  20
Rome            54  67  44  57 /  50  10  20  20
Peachtree City  55  73  48  55 /  20  10  20  20
Vidalia         62  75  51  58 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for the
following zones: Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Catoosa...Chattooga...
Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Dade...Dawson...DeKalb...
Douglas...Fannin...Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer...Gordon...Greene...
Gwinnett...Hall...Henry...Jackson...Lumpkin...Madison...Morgan...
Murray...Newton...North Fulton...Oconee...Oglethorpe...
Paulding...Pickens...Polk...Rockdale...South Fulton...
Taliaferro...Towns...Union...Walker...Walton...White...
Whitfield...Wilkes.

&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1200 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-221115-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1200 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central
Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across portions
of north Georgia this afternoon through the evening hours. A few of
these storms could produce large hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

There is a chance of thunderstorms across north Georgia Saturday
through Sunday.

Otherwise, no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
733 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROCKY FACE              34.81N  85.03W
03/21/2017                   WHITFIELD          GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM REPORTING SEVERAL TREES DOWN AROUND 1400 BLOCK OF
            LAFAYETTE HWY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1700272

DJN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
735 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

GAZ024-027-220000-
Madison GA-Banks GA-
735 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MADISON AND BANKS
COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

At 735 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Homer...moving east at
30 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Homer, Maysville, Gillsville, Pinefield Crossroads, Hollingsworth and
Banks Crossing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3442 8338 3432 8339 3427 8334 3425 8334
      3426 8330 3425 8327 3424 8317 3427 8311
      3426 8312 3422 8308 3421 8309 3426 8358
      3431 8364 3442 8363 3445 8359 3446 8340
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 272DEG 26KT 3436 8355

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
737 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FORT OGLETHORPE         34.96N  85.26W
03/21/2017                   CATOOSA            GA   PUBLIC

            RECEIVED A REPORT OF 50 MPH GUST AND A TREE DOWN NEAR
            INTERSECTION OF US-27 AND GA-2

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1700273

KING

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
737 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

GAZ005-007-220000-
Gilmer GA-Murray GA-
737 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN GILMER AND
SOUTHEASTERN MURRAY COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

At 737 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Ramhurst, or near
Chatsworth...moving east at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...nickel sized hail and frequent cloud
           to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Chatsworth, Ellijay, East Ellijay, Carters, Talona, Tails Creek,
Ramhurst, Mountaintown, Fort Mountain State Park and Roundtop.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3476 8447 3464 8442 3456 8450 3456 8451
      3455 8452 3461 8472 3462 8472 3462 8475
      3465 8484 3481 8478
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 289DEG 24KT 3472 8472

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...50MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0734 PM     HAIL             1 N SADDLEBACK ESTATES  33.95N  83.93W
03/21/2017  E1.00 INCH       GWINNETT           GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PENNY TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTS IN GWINNET COUNTY.
            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED SOUTH SIDE OF DACULA

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1700274

KS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
741 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

GAZ013>015-220015-
Dawson GA-Pickens GA-Lumpkin GA-
741 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DAWSON...EASTERN
PICKENS AND SOUTHWESTERN LUMPKIN COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

At 741 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Lake Tamarack, or near
Jasper...moving east at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and nickel sized hail.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Jasper, Dawsonville, Amicalola Falls State Park, Sequoyah Lake, Lake
Tamarack, Marblehill, Tate, Nimblewill, McKee, Juno and Fausett Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

LAT...LON 3445 8405 3440 8438 3455 8444 3455 8437
      3456 8437 3457 8430 3457 8426 3458 8425
      3460 8412
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 255DEG 32KT 3448 8433

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...40MPH