Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
252 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...
A strong front will push through GA overnight as an upper trough
deepens into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Strong shear
combined with steep lapse rates and afternoon heating will
support severe thunderstorms across much of north and central
GA this afternoon and into the evening. A tornado watch is
currently in effect for northwest GA until 00z. Depending on
the evolution of these storms...severe weather may continue
to develop into central and east GA tonight. The precipitation
should exit the forecast area around 12z Thursday with only
slight chance pops remaining in that area after sunrise.
Winds will continue to gust into the overnight however it
looks like they may remain just below advisory criteria.

A much drier and cooler air mass will build into the area
tomorrow and tomorrow night. Some temperatures near freezing
are in store for northeast GA tomorrow night.

41

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...
No changes made to the extended forecast. For the most part the
long term is rather quiet and dry. Moisture return expected late
Monday into Tuesday timeframe along with a cold front moving to
the area with lead to chances of showers...with a slight chance of
thunderstorms on Tuesday. GFS and European models are
significantly different during this period so details are very
much low confidence.

Forecast Temperatures will run 3-4 degrees below normal Thursday
night and close to normal on Friday. The coolest day will be Saturday
with Low temperatures around 6 degrees below normal and Highs near
to 4 degrees below normal. Temperature will then warm to above normal
starting with Sunday highs.

BDL

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

Mvfr ceilings gradually lifting to vfr this afternoon. Showers
and thunderstorms spreading across the taf sites later this
afternoon and evening...a few possibly severe. Showers clearing
the taf sites before sunrise Thursday. Winds gusting from the
southwest until frontal passage later tonight...then becoming
northwest and gusty late tonight and Thursday.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
Medium on thunderstorms timing.
High on remaining elements.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          42  61  37  60 /  90   0   0   0
Atlanta         42  58  38  57 /  90   0   0   0
Blairsville     34  52  31  49 /  90   0   0   0
Cartersville    40  57  35  55 /  90   0   0   0
Columbus        47  62  39  63 /  80   5   0   0
Gainesville     41  57  37  55 /  90   0   0   0
Macon           49  63  38  64 /  80  10   0   0
Rome            39  58  35  55 /  70   0   0   0
Peachtree City  41  59  35  59 /  90   0   0   0
Vidalia         56  66  41  66 /  60  30   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Tornado Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for the following
zones: Bartow...Catoosa...Chattooga...Cherokee...Dade...Dawson...
Fannin...Floyd...Gilmer...Gordon...Lumpkin...Murray...Pickens...
Polk...Towns...Union...Walker...White...Whitfield.

&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...41

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1213 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-021100-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1213 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight...

The risk for severe weather across north and central Georgia will
increase this afternoon and evening as a strong cold front crosses
the area. Thunderstorms will develop after 2 PM across extreme
northwest Georgia, then a more organized line of storms will move
southeast between 4PM and Midnight tonight.

Damaging winds will be the primary threat, however, a few storms
will be capable of producing tornadoes and large hail. Locally heavy
rain and frequent cloud to ground lightning with the strong winds
are expected to affect a large area of north and central Georgia.

The severe threat will end from northwest to southeast this evening,
with storms expected to move south of a Americus to Dublin line
after 1 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms next Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activiation will likely be necesary across much of north and
central Georgia, especially after 2 PM this afternoon, through this
evening.

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