Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
647 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 409 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017/

SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...

Quickly improving weather conditions are expected today after a
surface low passes through the area.

Surface low pressure over AL/MS this morning will continue to
deamplify and move eastward and track across the metro Atlanta area
this morning. Warm front precedes the surface low center, and better
instability and dynamics for thunderstorm development will be in
this warm sector, generally south of the Atlanta metro area. As the
surface low tracks across the state, a cold front will trail behind
it, providing a focus for more organized convection. So far this
morning, models have overdone the coverage and intensity of the
activity to the west over Alabama, and thus the pop forecast for
middle Georgia may be too high.  Short-term Hi-Res models have also
sped up the timing of the clearing behind the front, with most
suggesting that precip will begin ending in the western portions of
the state as early as 13-14z, and exiting the eastern CWA by 16-17z.
Have opted for a slower evolution (similar to the more recent HRRR
runs), and have kept some mention of rain/thunder, even just slight
chance, through 22z in the far eastern zones.

SPC does have portions of south and central Georgia in a slight risk
for severe weather, but generally for areas outside the CWA. A
marginal risk area does encompass more of the area, generally south
of a line from Columbus, to Forsyth, to Augusta. Isolated strong to
severe storms are possible due to the high shear/marginal
instability environment. Main concern would be with isolated
supercells ahead of the main band of convection. Cannot rule out the
potential for a rotating storm or two.

Winds will increase behind the front with the tight pressure
gradient over the state. Main concern will be over the higher
elevations of north Georgia where near Wind Advisory conditions are
possible. For now, will not issue an advisory and will allow the day
shift to monitor conditions.

Expected temperatures are slightly warmer than previously forecast
as clearing is expected during peak insolation/heating today.
Although north Georgia may settle in the 50s, the southern zones
could see temperatures in the low 70s. Chilly temperatures return
overnight tonight, and the cooler air mass over the area Thursday
will keep temperatures in the 50s and low 60s.

31

LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...

GFS and ECMWF are basically in line with each other through the
long term. Another short wave will affect north and central GA
over the weekend. The upper low will track from the mid MS Valley
across the Tn Valley and southern Appalachians Saturday through
Sunday. The surface low should move along the northern Gulf and
should bring the best chances for showers Saturday and Saturday
night. Best instability still shown south of the forecast area so
no thunder has been mentioned. Ridging takes place Sunday and
Monday...but the ridge moves steadily eastward as the next upper
short wave deepens in the northwest Gulf. Models continue to slow
this system and there will be only a slight chance north and west
by Tuesday. Still looks like best instability will remain south of
our area.

41

AVIATION...
06Z Update...
BKN-OVC VFR impacting the area early this morning, and expect
IFR or low MVFR with the precip 08-12z. SHowers and a few
thunderstorms will impact the area this morning, exiting south and
east after 16-18z. SW winds 3-7kt will increase to 8-10kt by 12z,
and then shift NW by 15-16z, increasing to 12-15kt with gusts to
25kt. Quick ceiling improvement is expected after 15z, with SKC by
00-01z.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium on ceilings and precipitation timing.
High confidence on all other elements.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Convection moving through the Atlanta metro this morning and
quickly moving east. TSRA expected to impact TAF sites through
14-15z. IFR/MVFR cigs will improve quickly through mid morning,
with VFR by 16-18z. NW winds behind the precip will be 10-16kt
with gusts to 22-26kt. Winds will diminish into the overnight
period, with speeds 10kt or less.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium on ceilings and precip timing through 16z.
High confidence on all other elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          62  33  59  37 /  90   5   0   0
Atlanta         56  34  57  40 /  90   5   0   0
Blairsville     50  27  52  32 /  90   5   0   0
Cartersville    56  31  56  35 /  80   5   0   0
Columbus        62  37  62  38 /  70   5   0   0
Gainesville     56  33  56  38 /  90   5   0   0
Macon           64  35  62  36 /  80   5   0   0
Rome            56  30  56  34 /  60   5   0   0
Peachtree City  59  32  58  35 /  90   5   0   0
Vidalia         70  40  63  40 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
436 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-160945-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
436 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

A few thunderstorms are expected today for much of north and
central Georgia.

Low pressure moving across the state will bring showers and a few
thunderstorms to the area. Isolated storms may become severe
mainly across central Georgia this morning into early afternoon.
The main threats will be damaging wind gusts...and a tornado
could not be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Another storm system will bring showers to north and central
Georgia for the weekend. For now...best instability is forecast to
remain south of our area and no thunder is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
648 AM EST WED FEB 15 2017

GAZ046>050-054-055-057>059-151215-
Butts GA-Morgan GA-Fayette GA-Walton GA-Rockdale GA-Clayton GA-
Jasper GA-Newton GA-Greene GA-Henry GA-
648 AM EST WED FEB 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BUTTS...MORGAN...
EASTERN FAYETTE...SOUTHEASTERN WALTON...SOUTHERN ROCKDALE...
CLAYTON...NORTHERN JASPER...NEWTON...WESTERN GREENE AND HENRY
COUNTIES UNTIL 715 AM EST...

At 647 AM EST...a line of strong thunderstorms was extending from
near Rutledge to Atlanta Motor Speedway...and moving east at 45
mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
McDonough, Fayetteville, Conyers, Covington, Jonesboro, Madison,
Greensboro, Stockbridge, Lovejoy, Social Circle, Oxford, Porterdale,
Rutledge, Newborn, Mansfield, Buckhead, Jersey, Georgia International
Horse Park, Stewart and Lake Spivey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3343 8457 3377 8370 3360 8313 3336 8386
TIME...MOT...LOC 1147Z 273DEG 55KT 3355 8359 3341 8432

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
803 AM EST WED FEB 15 2017

GAZ068>070-151330-
Lamar GA-Upson GA-Pike GA-
803 AM EST WED FEB 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAMAR...NORTHERN UPSON AND
SOUTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTIES UNTIL 830 AM EST...

At 802 AM EST...a strong thunderstorm with very heavy rain was
centered just west of Barnesville...moving northeast at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...Heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Heavy rain may cause temporary street flooding especially
           in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Barnesville, Milner, Meansville, Aldora, Liberty Hill, Atwater,
Goggins, Lifsey Springs, Piedmont, Johnstonville, Chappel Mill and
Hannahs Mill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of
control due to hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3304 8442 3320 8405 3301 8405 3293 8443
TIME...MOT...LOC 1302Z 241DEG 40KT 3305 8423