Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
250 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2017

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...
An upper level trough will continue to move into the deep south
providing sufficient divergence aloft this afternoon through the
evening hours. Within the mid-levels, have noticed a series of
impulses progged to round the trough helping to initiate lift with
the axis pivoting through the region by around midnight. One can see
this dynamic system underway at the surface... A line of showers and
thunderstorms draped across southern portions of MS into AL and
northward into TN as it continues to track eastward. Thunderstorm
activity that was once on going in AL has lost its luster. This is
likely due to the early arrival of cloud cover/showers that helped
keep the atmosphere fairly stable.  SPC thus trimmed back the
SLGT/MRGL area to incorporate this thinking.  Therefore, the severe
threat does not seem as elevated for this round. With minimal
instability and marginal shear in place, do anticipate embedded
thunderstorm activity through the evening hours.

It should be noted...the high resolution models were trying to show
linear segments with these thunderstorms and you can actually see
this feature coming out of TN, moving SE. Given the shear profile,
could see better organized thunderstorm lines later this
afternoon/evening, especially south toward Columbus.  Heavy rain and
gusty winds will be the main threats with these storms.

This wave of precipitation will continue to track east with a lull
in activity late tonight through much of the day Wednesday. As the
main impulse pivots NE of the area, this will lead to clearing (and
fairly calm conditions)...fog cometh. Dense fog may be an issue
across the area early Wednesday morning.

The next round of showers/thunderstorms will approach Wednesday
afternoon ahead of the cold front. Confidence on the coverage and
intensity is a bit low at this point given model discrepancies on
both instability and moisture. However, the upper level support is
certainly available, combined being within the warm sector. Shear
values Wednesday evening/overnight looks fairly strong. So high
shear, low CAPE set up is likely with organized thunderstorms
possible, especially across northern GA. The main threat with any
storms that develop will be heavy rain, damaging winds and small
hail.

The front will cross the area early Thursday bringing in drier and
cooler air into the region.

26

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
Just minor adjustments to the temperatures and pops. Previous
long term discussion follows...

17

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...

The long term period begins with yet another in a series of
shortwaves moving through the Tennessee valley and into the local
area. Surface reflection of this feature will be a low pressure
system off the mid Atlantic coast that will bring an attendant
cold front through Wednesday night. Along and ahead of this
feature will be a line of showers and thunderstorms.

Now depending on what model you believe will determine whether
this will merely be a bkn line of showers and isolated storms or a
solid line of robust thunderstorm activity. GFS is much drier
than the Euro at this point and the NAM12 is the strongest with
the instability. Am leaning at this point toward a stronger
solution and feel we could see another round of strong to severe
storms given brief increase in shear values before system kicks
out.

High pressure will build in across the area and act as the
dominant feature for the remainder of the long term period. Even
at its coldest which should be Thu night into Fri...high is only
sufficient enough to allow for a return to seasonal norms. by the
weekend we will be right back into the upper 60s and lower 70s
across the area. Another weak front will approach early next week
but at this time rain chances only look to be in the low end
chance range at best.

Deese

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          56  73  47  58 /  80  20  50   5
Atlanta         57  72  44  54 /  90  20  50   5
Blairsville     52  67  38  45 /  90  40  60  10
Cartersville    55  71  42  51 /  80  30  50  10
Columbus        57  73  49  60 /  90  20  40  10
Gainesville     55  69  43  52 /  90  30  50   5
Macon           57  73  52  62 /  90  20  40  10
Rome            55  71  42  51 /  70  30  50   5
Peachtree City  55  71  45  55 /  90  20  50   5
Vidalia         59  75  57  67 /  80  20  40  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1239 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-081745-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1239 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

..A Few Strong Storms Possible This Afternoon and Evening...

A large area of showers and thunderstorms over Alabama was
beginning to move into northwest Georgia. This area will continue
moving east...spreading across all of north and central Georgia
the rest of this afternoon and into the nighttime hours.

A few of these storms could be strong with gusty winds, pea-sized
hail, and frequent lightning. The best area for strong storms is
west of a line from Carrollton to Macon to McRae, and mainly
through 10 PM this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Another in a series of these storm systems will affect the area
Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. Confidence has increased
that at least a portion of the area could see additional isolated
strong to severe thunderstorm activity with strong winds and hail
as the primary threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
448 PM EST TUE FEB 7 2017

GAZ080-091>093-102>104-072230-
Macon GA-Schley GA-Stewart GA-Taylor GA-Sumter GA-Marion GA-
Webster GA-
448 PM EST TUE FEB 7 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MACON...SCHLEY...
SOUTHEASTERN STEWART...SOUTHERN TAYLOR...WESTERN SUMTER...SOUTHERN
MARION AND WEBSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EST...

At 447 PM EST...a line of strong thunderstorms was extending from
Brantley to Seminole to near Troutman...and moving east at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Americus, Buena Vista, Ellaville, Oglethorpe, Preston, Montezuma,
Richland, Reynolds, Plains, Ideal, Andersonville, Weston, Sumter,
Putnam, Brantley, Seminole, Murrays Crossroads, Whitewater State
Park, Croxton Crossroads and New Era.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3197 8444 3193 8444 3192 8446 3192 8467
      3193 8468 3192 8469 3192 8477 3216 8461
      3240 8458 3258 8405 3256 8405 3255 8403
      3227 8403 3191 8427 3192 8434 3187 8434
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 256DEG 38KT 3239 8457 3217 8458 3194 8474

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
504 PM EST TUE FEB 7 2017

GAZ069-079>081-072230-
Taylor GA-Upson GA-Crawford GA-Talbot GA-
504 PM EST TUE FEB 7 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TAYLOR...UPSON...WESTERN CRAWFORD
AND EASTERN TALBOT COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EST...

At 503 PM EST...a line of strong thunderstorms was extending from
Sprewell Bluff State Park to Prattsburg to Charing...and moving
northeast at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Thomaston, Butler, Reynolds, Yatesville, Sunset Village, Lincoln
Park, The Rock, Redbone Crossroads, Sprewell Bluff State Park,
Howard, Logtown, Sunnyside, Salem, Prattsburg, Big Lazer Creek Wma,
Carsonville, Wesley Church, Fickling Mill, Mauk and Pleasant Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3248 8441 3249 8442 3269 8441 3286 8454
      3298 8420 3289 8412 3285 8412 3285 8409
      3282 8406 3258 8405 3246 8441
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 245DEG 34KT 3287 8449 3271 8436 3248 8437

WIND...40MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
505 PM EST TUE FEB 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CATAULA                 32.66N  84.87W
02/07/2017                   HARRIS             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN TOWN OF CATAULA
            ON US 27. SOME POWER LINES AND TREES DOWN ON VEHICLES
            WITH PEOPLE INSIDE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1700184

BAKER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
523 PM EST TUE FEB 7 2017

GAZ104-105-072300-
Dooly GA-Sumter GA-
523 PM EST TUE FEB 7 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DOOLY AND SUMTER
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EST...

At 523 PM EST...a strong thunderstorm was near Huntington, or near
Americus...moving northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Americus, Leslie, De Soto, Sumter, Lamar, Drayton, Maddox, Methvins,
New Era, Flint River Wma and Huntington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3198 8429 3215 8410 3216 8392 3203 8394
      3203 8396 3202 8395 3198 8395 3192 8426
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 241DEG 29KT 3201 8419

WIND...40MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
529 PM EST TUE FEB 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSE HOWARD            32.55N  84.36W
02/07/2017                   TAYLOR             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE AND CAR NEAR BLACK CREEK TRAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1700185

BAKER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
547 PM EST TUE FEB 7 2017

GAZ082-083-093>095-105-107-072330-
Macon GA-Peach GA-Dooly GA-Bibb GA-Houston GA-Twiggs GA-Pulaski GA-
547 PM EST TUE FEB 7 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MACON...PEACH...NORTHERN
DOOLY...SOUTHEASTERN BIBB...HOUSTON...SOUTHWESTERN TWIGGS AND
NORTHWESTERN PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EST...

At 547 PM EST...a line of strong thunderstorms extended from near
Powerville to near Dooling, moving east at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Perry, Warner Robins, Centerville, Byron, Robins Air Force Base,
Hayneville, Browndale, Meadowdale, Houston Lake, Elko, Grove Park,
Powerville, Moss Oak, Miami Valley, Kathleen, Saint Louis, Sand Bed,
Bullard, Grovania and Lakewood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3226 8393 3265 8382 3269 8377 3269 8372
      3270 8374 3279 8350 3273 8342 3230 8355
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 256DEG 20KT 3264 8381 3228 8393

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH