Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
635 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2017

.SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...

Short wave lifting out of the lower Mississippi Valley will be the
main driving force today. Models continue to show moderate
instability spreading across the forecast area ahead of this feature
this morning. Moderate shear also expected to accompany this short
wave providing a slight to enhanced risk of severe weather this
morning into the afternoon. We should see a bit of a lull in
activity later this afternoon and evening as the initial short wave
lifts out but another good shot of short wave energy pushes into the
state tonight ahead of the main upper-level low which sweeps across
Sunday. Each of these features are expected to provide a good shot
of lift and shear and combined with the ambient warm and moderately
unstable atmosphere in place over the region will keep the slight to
enhanced risk of severe weather in place through the day Sunday.

Forecast storm total precipitation amounts are generally around 2-3
inches across our central Georgia counties and 1.5-2 inches across
the north. Spread over the next 36 to 48 hours this is not likely to
produce any widespread flood/flash flood issues. However, localized
heavier amounts may lead to a few isolated problems. I am not
planning on issuing any flood/flash flood watches at this time.

20

.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

Models in better agreement at the start of the period with the
closed upper low vicinity of the TN valley. The low moves across
the Appalachians into Monday. Extensive wrap around associated
with this cold core low should give a chance of showers across the
forecast area on Monday...mainly northeast Monday night. Ridging
dominates the southeast on Tuesday but another short wave brings
moisture and a chance of showers back Wednesday into Thursday. The
short wave looks like it will move east of the area by Thursday
night. However moisture on the back side of this wave will push
into TN and move rapidly eastward. Models suggest this moisture
will stay mainly north of the forecast area...but there could be
enough cold air advection to bring a few snow showers to the far
northeast. A slight chance has been included in that area for
Thursday night. Friday looks dry. Temperatures will be on a
cooling trend by late next week.

41

&&

AVIATION...
12Z Update...

Mainly IFR or lower conditions across the forecast area at this
time. Will see some improvement 14-20Z, but will still see a mixture
of MVFR/IFR conditions in that time frame. Mainly MVFR conditions
after 20Z deteriorating back toward widespread IFR conditions
between 00Z and 06Z. Large area of showers with embedded
thunderstorms spreading northeast across the forecast area
currently. Best coverage will be moving out of the area from west to
east between 18Z and 22Z. Southeast winds 3-7kt through 14Z,
increasing to 5-10kt after.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...

Medium confidence on all elements.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          67  58  69  47 /  90  90  80  80
Atlanta         69  58  67  48 /  90  90  80  70
Blairsville     64  53  63  44 /  80  90  80  90
Cartersville    68  56  67  46 /  90  90  80  70
Columbus        71  60  69  48 /  90  80  70  50
Gainesville     67  57  66  48 /  90  90  80  80
Macon           72  60  73  48 /  90  90  80  60
Rome            67  56  67  47 /  80  90  80  80
Peachtree City  71  58  68  46 /  90  90  80  70
Vidalia         73  62  75  51 /  80  80  90  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
526 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-221030-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
526 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
AGAIN TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO GEORGIA THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL AGAIN POSE
THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
EXCEED 3 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS. GIVEN THESE HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
526 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>060-211500-
Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Whitfield-Murray-Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns-
Chattooga-Gordon-Pickens-Dawson-Lumpkin-White-Floyd-Bartow-
Cherokee-Forsyth-Hall-Banks-Jackson-Madison-Polk-Paulding-Cobb-
North Fulton-Gwinnett-Barrow-Clarke-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Wilkes-
Haralson-Carroll-Douglas-South Fulton-DeKalb-Rockdale-Walton-
Newton-Morgan-Greene-Taliaferro-Heard-Coweta-Fayette-Clayton-
Spalding-Henry-Butts-Jasper-Putnam-
526 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2017

...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXPECTED THIS MORNING...

FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL AFFECT MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING. THE FOG WILL DENSE IN SPOTS...WITH
VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1/2 MILE AT TIMES. MOTORISTS ARE
URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS.

THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SOMEWHAT THROUGH MID MORNING AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
752 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

GAZ052-066-067-078-211330-
Harris GA-Troup GA-Heard GA-Meriwether GA-
752 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HARRIS...TROUP...
SOUTHERN HEARD AND SOUTHWESTERN MERIWETHER COUNTIES UNTIL 830 AM
EST...

At 751 AM EST...a line of strong thunderstorms was extending from
near Lafayette to Jones Crossroads to near Cataula...and moving
northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Frequent cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Lightning is one of nature's leading killers. If you can
           hear thunder...you are close enough to be struck by
           lightning. Heavy rain may cause temporary street flooding
           especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Lagrange, Hamilton, Franklin, Greenville, West Point, Hogansville,
Pine Mountain, Corinth, F.d. Roosevelt State Park, Southern Harbor,
Mountville, Cannonville, Louise, Odessadale, Rocky Point, Stovall,
Piedmont Heights, Harrisonville, Hillcrest and Big Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.  Electrical
appliances should not be used unless in an emergency. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3326 8495 3322 8494 3322 8489 3302 8472
      3277 8481 3286 8519 3336 8528
TIME...MOT...LOC 1251Z 208DEG 66KT 3287 8542 3285 8504 3268 8483