Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
629 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017

.AVIATION.../00Z Update/
Upper level low pressure continues across the northern portions of
the state and this combined with abundant moisture and plenty of
boundaries the trend for scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue. Upper level energy, boundaries and diurnal trends will
dictate where and when and where convection develops. Current
convection across the Hill Country and west of KAUS is laying down a
number of boundaries that will likely cause wind shifts and could
enhance convection over the next several hours. Forecast period will
begin with VFR conditions prevailing and tempo periods with MVFR
conditions in or near convection. After 07Z will begin to see MVFR
cigs develop at the I-35 sites. Expect MVFR cigs at KDRT around 12Z.
Winds will be E-SE less than 10 knots, but will be variable in or
near convection and behind outflow boundaries. On Sunday upper level
low will begin to move slowly east with drying across the west and
less convection. Should see VFR cigs return around 14Z-15Z. Will
still see rounds of scattered convection across the east. Winds will
be S-SE at 10 knots or less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
The center of the large upper low is over western OK and NW Texas.
This will continue to be our main weather maker through the short
term period. Clusters of storms over the state have been playing
havoc on the mesoscale numerical models, such that it has been hard
to find any model that has been doing a good job initializing and
then handling the convection.

An early morning storm cluster came across the county warning area
and has done a good job in keeping most convection at bay. Some
daytime heating has allowed for scattered convection to fire but for
the most part the area has seen only a few showers/storms. As the
afternoon progresses we do expect the storms to become more numerous
with a good 40-50% coverage by early evening with the unstable
airmass. There are plenty of left over boundaries to be triggers as
well. We may also have a differential heating boundary set up out
west due to the extensive cloud cover with an early afternoon Mexico
MCS. This all points to keeping a good chance of pop in the forecast
for the evening and into the overnight. Best bet is to have storms
over the Edwards Plateau and then move into the Hill Country and
western zones. With activity already firing in this area and the Big
Bend, this scenario seems plausible.

By Sunday models are dropping pops out west, concentrating the
highest chances of rain Central and East zones.  This is in concert
with the upper low starting to shift east and southeast. Will stick
fairly close to guidance temps, keeping hi/low near normal for this
time of year.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Our pattern will finally see some drying by Tue as the upper low
moves southeast and our South Central Texas area gets under the
influence of mid level NW flow. That should be enough to keep the
majority of pop east of the area while keeping the area fairly
seasonable with temps and dewpoints. Guidance is bringing in some
light north winds mid week, impacts should be fairly minimal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              70  88  70  87  70 /  60  50  50  50  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  69  88  69  86  69 /  50  50  50  50  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     69  87  70  86  69 /  50  50  40  50  20
Burnet Muni Airport            67  85  67  85  68 /  60  50  40  50  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           69  89  71  92  71 /  60  40  20  10  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        68  86  68  86  68 /  60  50  50  50  30
Hondo Muni Airport             69  88  69  89  69 /  60  50  30  40  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        69  88  69  87  69 /  50  50  40  50  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   71  87  71  86  70 /  40  60  50  60  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       70  89  71  88  70 /  60  50  40  50  20
Stinson Muni Airport           71  88  71  88  71 /  50  50  40  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...10
Synoptic/Grids...Allen
Public Service/Data Collection...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
450 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-041000-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
450 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms continue today and tonight.
Locally heavy rain causing minor flooding is possible along with
isolated strong storms producing damaging wind gusts and large
hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms continue Sunday through
Wednesday. Isolated strong storms with hail and gusty winds as
well as locally heavy rain causing minor flooding are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
648 PM CDT SAT JUN 3 2017

TXZ191-207-208-040030-
Guadalupe TX-Caldwell TX-Hays TX-
648 PM CDT SAT JUN 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL CALDWELL...
SOUTHEASTERN HAYS AND NORTHERN GUADALUPE COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 648 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
San Marcos, moving east at 5 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
San Marcos, Kyle, Martindale, San Marcos Regional Airport, Maxwell,
Reedville and Redwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2989 9806 3000 9788 2988 9775 2975 9794
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 284DEG 5KT 2987 9791

ALLEN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
721 PM CDT SAT JUN 3 2017

TXZ191-206-208-040100-
Comal TX-Caldwell TX-Hays TX-
721 PM CDT SAT JUN 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL...SOUTHERN
HAYS AND NORTHEASTERN COMAL COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 720 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Uhland, or near Kyle, moving northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

Dime to nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
San Marcos, Kyle, Lockhart, Buda, Wimberley, Canyon Lake, Woodcreek,
Martindale, Uhland, Mustang Ridge, Niederwald, Mountain City, San
Marcos Regional Airport, Maxwell, Reedville, Hays City and Mendoza.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2989 9767 2985 9787 2985 9788 2984 9790
      2982 9801 2985 9818 2995 9823 3002 9811
      3010 9781 3002 9771 3004 9769 2996 9758
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 236DEG 15KT 2994 9784

ALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
736 PM CDT SAT JUN 03 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             SAN MARCOS              29.88N  97.93W
06/03/2017  E0.25 INCH       HAYS               TX   PUBLIC

            NORTHEAST SAN MARCOS AREA

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1700094

SBS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
736 PM CDT SAT JUN 3 2017

TXZ188>190-040115-
Blanco TX-Gillespie TX-Kendall TX-
736 PM CDT SAT JUN 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BLANCO...EASTERN
GILLESPIE AND NORTHWESTERN KENDALL COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 736 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Luckenbach, or 11 miles southeast of Fredericksburg, moving north at
10 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fredericksburg, Stonewall, Blowout, Luckenbach, Cain City, Sandy,
Willow City, Rocky Hill, Bankersmith, Rocky Creek, Hye, Blumenthal,
Eckert, Crabapple, Lbj State Park, Albert and Grapetown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3048 9887 3049 9841 3002 9857 3008 9890
TIME...MOT...LOC 0036Z 186DEG 8KT 3019 9871

MSL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
738 PM CDT SAT JUN 03 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             SAN MARCOS              29.88N  97.93W
06/03/2017  E0.25 INCH       HAYS               TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1700095

SBS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
833 PM CDT SAT JUN 3 2017

TXZ171-172-188>192-040215-
Blanco TX-Gillespie TX-Llano TX-Hays TX-Kendall TX-Burnet TX-
Travis TX-
833 PM CDT SAT JUN 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HAYS...WEST CENTRAL
TRAVIS...BLANCO...EASTERN GILLESPIE...SOUTHEASTERN LLANO...
NORTHEASTERN KENDALL AND SOUTHWESTERN BURNET COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM
CDT...

At 832 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Johnson City, or 10 miles south of Round Mountain, moving east at 30
mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Austin, Kingsland, Marble Falls, Dripping Springs, Blanco, Round
Mountain, Buchanan Dam, Lakeway, Lago Vista, Granite Shoals, Bee
Cave, Horseshoe Bay, The Hills, Meadowlakes, Johnson City, Stonewall,
Highland Haven, Bear Creek, Inks Lake State Park and Kendalia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3023 9782 3002 9828 3004 9830 2999 9835
      2987 9862 3047 9865 3081 9837
TIME...MOT...LOC 0132Z 255DEG 28KT 3029 9841

MSL