Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1243 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017

.AVIATION...
Scattered thunderstorms are approaching DRT. They are about two hours
away and should affect the airport for about two hours when they
arrive. They could drop VIS to MVFR. In Austin and San Antonio expect
CIGs to drop to MVFR within the next hour or two and then drop
further to IFR overnight. MVFR CIGs will develop at DRT by around
12Z. All terminals should improve to VFR early afternoon. We expect
more showers and thunderstorms starting in the afternoon at DRT and
spreading east reaching San Antonio and Austin by evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
The MCV this morning across the southwest CWA has weakened and
sheared apart and conditions have stabilized in its wake across the
area. For the remainder of the afternoon and early evening coverage
of any additional showers and storms should remain isolated across
the eastern Hill Country, Central Texas, and far eastern CWA. Another
shortwave rotating through the base of the upper level trough has
begun to initiate storms across the Permian Basin and Far West Texas.
This disturbance will slide east tonight and some of the storms
could impact northern and western areas of the CWA late tonight
though early Saturday morning, primarily across the southern Edwards
Plateau and Hill Country.

The upper level trough will sharpen and move east on Saturday and by
afternoon and evening the axis will stretch from Oklahoma south into
West Central Texas and the Big Bend. For most of the day on Saturday
coverage of storms across the CWA should remain rather isolated. But
by late afternoon upstream convection, developing from forcing
associated with a shortwave rotating through the base of the trough,
should enter the northwest CWA and then develop southward through
the Hill Country and Rio Grande Saturday evening. The storms could
possible move into the east into the Hill Country and I-35 corridor
overnight. A few of these storms could contain locally heavy
rainfall, with models showing 1.8-2 inches of precipitable water
pooled across portions of the western CWA.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
On Sunday the mid level trough axis (possibly closed off) rotates
into the central portions of the CWA along with the deep 2 inch
precipitable water pool also sliding east. Assuming Saturday night's
convection doesn't become too organized that it works over the
atmosphere, Sunday should see high pops across the eastern 2/3rds of
the CWA, including the Hill Country and along and east of I-35, again
with isolated pockets of locally heavy rainfall possible. The
showers and storms could linger into Sunday night east of I-35.

On Monday the mid and upper level trough axis slides farther east,
centering from East Texas down through the Coastal Bend. There should
still however be a moisture pool of around 2 inches of precipitable
water located over the eastern half of the CWA. With forcing from a
spoke of vorticity rotating into the the CWA around the back side of
the mid and upper level trough/low expect re-development of scattered
to possibly numerous showers and storms across the eastern half of
the CWA Monday afternoon.

By Tuesday the trough slides out into the western Gulf of Mexico and
drier air works in from the north, with POPs primarily confined to
the southeast CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              89  70  87  70  87 /  30  50  70  40  60
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  88  70  87  69  86 /  20  50  70  40  60
New Braunfels Muni Airport     88  70  86  69  86 /  20  40  70  40  60
Burnet Muni Airport            85  68  84  67  84 /  40  60  70  30  50
Del Rio Intl Airport           88  70  87  70  90 /  20  60  40  30  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        87  69  85  68  85 /  30  50  70  30  60
Hondo Muni Airport             89  70  87  69  88 /  20  50  60  30  50
San Marcos Muni Airport        89  70  87  69  86 /  20  50  70  40  60
La Grange - Fayette Regional   88  71  87  70  86 /  20  30  70  50  70
San Antonio Intl Airport       88  71  87  70  87 /  20  50  70  40  60
Stinson Muni Airport           88  72  87  71  87 /  20  40  70  40  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...05
Synoptic/Grids...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
357 AM CDT Fri Jun 2 2017

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-030900-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
357 AM CDT Fri Jun 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms continue today and tonight.
Isolated strong storms with hail and gusty winds as well as
locally heavy rains causing minor flooding are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms continue Saturday through
Wednesday. Isolated strong storms with hail and gusty winds as
well as locally heavy rains causing minor flooding are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1223 AM CDT SAT JUN 3 2017

TXZ183-030615-
Val Verde TX-
1223 AM CDT SAT JUN 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY
UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

At 1222 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles north of Pumpville to 12 miles
southwest of Osman to 30 miles south of Dryden. Movement was east at
35 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Langtry, Pumpville, Osman, and Shumla.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3011 10176 3016 10132 2977 10140 2975 10144
      2978 10145 2979 10147 2976 10154 2981 10154
      2980 10157 2977 10158 2977 10163 2976 10164
      2977 10166 2976 10168 2977 10169 2976 10171
      2978 10172 2978 10176
TIME...MOT...LOC 0522Z 269DEG 30KT 3003 10177 2979 10182 2960 10204

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
114 AM CDT SAT JUN 3 2017

TXZ183-030700-
Val Verde TX-
114 AM CDT SAT JUN 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY
UNTIL 200 AM CDT...

At 113 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 12 miles northeast of Shumla to Seminole Canyon
State Park to 20 miles south of Langtry. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Loma Alta, Comstock, Shumla, Amistad Village, Box Canyon-Amistad,
Seminole Canyon State Park, Devils Shores, Pafford Crossing, Bakers
Crossing, Vinegarone, Devils River State Natural Area, and Rough
Canyon Recreation Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

If on or near Lake Amistad, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3002 10136 3003 10071 2964 10081 2942 10104
      2946 10106 2947 10115 2952 10117 2952 10125
      2962 10125 2963 10126 2957 10129 2959 10131
      2965 10130 2966 10135 2965 10136 2970 10137
      2975 10142 2977 10140 2976 10143
TIME...MOT...LOC 0613Z 276DEG 37KT 2995 10131 2971 10137 2952 10159

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