Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
308 PM CDT Tue May 30 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Ongoing convection will continue to drift east-southeast as semi-
persistent MCVs and outflows provide the lift for new convection to
develop. There will be an overall reduction in coverage and intensity
as diurnal heating ends, and most current activity should die out
completely by 03Z. Rainfall will be spotty, but some locations in the
Hill Country and San Antonio Metro could receive 1-3 inches of rain.

A mid and upper-level low will continue to progress across the Desert
Southwest over the next 24 hours. The first shortwave trough rotating
around the low is expected to reach the lower Rio Grande by 12Z
Wednesday. Mesoscale models, particularly the Texas Tech WRF, HRRR,
and experimental HRRR all develop a line of convection or weak MCS
over the Sierra Madre, then propagate it eastward ahead of the
shortwave trough. This could reach the Rio Grande Plains as early as
09Z, but is more likely closer to 11Z. The low level jet will help
maintain this activity through about 15Z...when the climatological
diurnal convective lull occurs as the low level jet wanes and before
daytime heating ramps up. Additional scattered storms are likely
during Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
The upper low will continue to progress eastward on Thursday, so
another day with fairly high PoPs and the potential for localized
heavy rain, but not enough coverage nor amounts to require a flash
flood watch.

The general flow across North America will be relatively zonal
starting on Friday, but will low amplitude ripples, and a bit
further south than climatologically normal for this coming weekend
and into early next week. Given the generally unchanged moist and
slightly unstable airmass in place, this implies scattered showers
and thunderstorms, but relatively low 20-30 PoPs, each day. Rainfall
will be spotty and generally light, but a few spots could receive a
few inches of rain from any given storm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              70  88  69  85  71 /  30  30  40  70  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  68  88  69  84  70 /  20  30  40  70  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     68  86  69  84  70 /  30  30  50  60  20
Burnet Muni Airport            67  84  67  82  68 /  30  40  40  60  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           70  84  69  86  72 /  70  50  60  30  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        67  86  68  84  69 /  30  30  40  60  20
Hondo Muni Airport             69  87  69  86  70 /  70  40  50  50  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        68  87  68  85  70 /  20  30  50  60  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   69  88  70  86  71 /  20  40  40  70  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       70  87  70  86  71 /  50  30  50  60  20
Stinson Muni Airport           70  87  70  85  71 /  40  30  50  60  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...Oaks
Synoptic/Grids...26
Public Service/Data Collection...33

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
401 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-310915-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
401 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast
through tonight with isolated heavy downpours up to 1 inch
possible across parts of the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio
Grande. Localized flash flooding can't be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There will be continued chances for showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday through Monday. Best rain chances can be expected
Wednesday into Thursday, when locally heavy rainfall and a few
strong storms are possible especially across the southwest
counties.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
318 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2017

TXZ205-206-302100-
Comal TX-Bexar TX-
318 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BEXAR AND
SOUTHWESTERN COMAL COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 317 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Timberwood Park to near Leon Valley to near
Cliff. Movement was east at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
San Antonio, Schertz, Live Oak, Selma, San Antonio Int Ap, Leon
Valley, Helotes, Alamo Heights, Bulverde, Shavano Park, Garden Ridge,
Hollywood Park, Olmos Park, Timberwood Park, The Dominion, Sea World,
Cross Mountain, Castle Hills, Balcones Heights and Hill Country
Village.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2957 9881 2962 9869 2976 9849 2976 9821
      2960 9830 2959 9831 2958 9831 2942 9858
      2941 9880
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 262DEG 18KT 2972 9848 2955 9862 2949 9879

RUNYEN

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
411 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             3 N ALAMO HEIGHTS       29.52N 98.47W
05/30/2017  E0.50 INCH       BEXAR              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PHONE CALL REPORT OF MARBLE SIZED HAIL AND
            HEAVY RAIN. THE DURATION OF THE HAIL EVENT
            WAS 5 MINUTES.

&&

YB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
435 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2017

TXZ205-220-221-302200-
Bexar TX-Atascosa TX-Wilson TX-
435 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ATASCOSA...WESTERN WILSON
AND SOUTHEASTERN BEXAR COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 435 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Calaveras Lake to 7 miles northeast of
Leming to near Poteet. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Pleasanton, Floresville, Poteet, Poth, St. Hedwig, Elmendorf, La
Vernia, Calaveras Lake, Leming, Parita, Losoya, Southton, Canada
Verde, Graytown, Sayers, Thelma, Coughran, Espey, Adkins and Buena
Vista.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2897 9863 2915 9863 2942 9831 2945 9814
      2939 9812 2938 9812 2937 9811 2908 9808
      2887 9829
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 289DEG 25KT 2932 9832 2915 9841 2906 9854

RUNYEN