Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
934 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

.UPDATE... /FFA ISSUANCE/
Convective initiation was handled relatively well by the HRRR which
suggested some heavier rainfall to occur vs some of the coarser
models. With this trend, the likelihood of a 5+ inch rain over
western parts of the CWA increases, as we are meeting the 2 standard
deviation pwat criteria for flood potential. Later tonight, a
possible expansion of the watch may need to be considered should the
ARW verify with a more progressive solution into northern counties.
For now will expect the broad circulation seen in stratiform rain
over the Serranias del Burros should delay this eastward expansion,
and downdrafts to dictate a more slow eastward progression. Other
meso model features suggest additional heavy rains entering the area
from the north late Monday, so at some point, parts of Central TX
will need to be considered at least for Monday. Low end severe
weather remains a concern as well, given moderate values of CAPE and
shear.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017/

UPDATE... /HIGHLIGHTING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...INCREASED POPS/

Radar echoes are increasing rapidly over western counties to suggest
the more bullish storm scenario depicted by the last several HRRR
runs. Given the earlier progress and location of convective
initiation, felt the need to increase pops farther east for late
tonight and boost overall QPF and mention locally heavy rainfall in
the zones. These threats are already covered in the HWO.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017/

AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA are ongoing over the Big Bend to Serranias del Burro with
weak SHRA over Central Texas due to an MCV drifting to the east. Will
go with VCSH and tempo VCTS at KDRT this evening as a consensus of
Hi-res models and radar trends continue show movement to the east
with formation into an MCS. Have introduced VCSH at KAUS due radar
trends for this evening. The western MCS will slowly weaken overnight
encountering a capped environment. Redevelopment is expected Monday
and maintain VCSH for the I-35 TAFs for the morning, then introduce
VCTS for the afternoon hours as the cap erodes. VFR skies start this
TAF cycle. CIGs lower to MVFR later this evening, then IFR as patchy
BR and MVFR VSBYs develop overnight into morning. CIGS/VSBYs rise to
VFR midday to afternoon. IFR/MVFR CIGs/VSBYs are possible in any
SHRA/TSRA. MVFR CIGs return later Monday evening. S to SE winds 5 to
14 KTs will prevail. Gusts to 45 KTs are possible in TSRA downdrafts
with gusts to 22 KTs possible elsewhere.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
Broken to overcast skies blanket most of South Central Texas this
afternoon as a weak midlevel shortwave near Llano County continues to
move northeast. Elevated echoes continue to show up on radar over the
Hill Country associated with this feature, but these echoes have been
evaporating before reaching the surface. Although weaker than this
time yesterday afternoon, a relatively strong capping inversion just
above 800 mb continues to show up on aircraft soundings at SAT and
AUS. Most hi-res model trends continue to show that this cap will
hold for the next several hours over the I-35 corridor, but a few
notable outlier including the Texas Tech WRF indicate some storms may
develop over the Hill Country and move southeast by 5-6 pm. These
solutions seem a bit unrealistic given the movement of this shortwave
and lack of any convective development aside from a brief cell that
went up in Sutton County. Thus, the current forecast follows the
broader model consensus and trends that this cap will hold for the
I-35 corridor, with the best chances for any isolated thunderstorms
confined to the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau this afternoon.

Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop along a dryline in Big
Bend and off the Serranias del Burros in Mexico as a stronger
shortwave evident on WV imagery is providing some additional dynamic
forcing via PVA and cooling aloft. There is quite a bit of model
uncertainty in how these cells will organize and move to the east-
southeast this evening, but it does appear that they will cross the
border during the early evening hours and affect at least the Rio
Grande Plains where 60 POPs have been added. Shear parameters
continue to be rather unimpressive, but CAPE values peaking around
3000 J/kg just before sunrise and steep lapse rates aloft will
support a marginal risk of some strong to severe thunderstorms early
this evening in the Rio Grande Plains. Damaging winds will probably
the main threats with these storms, but quarter to possibly golf ball
size hail will be possible with multicellular clusters if this system
does not become more linear before crossing the border. Most models
are showing that the strength of the capping inversion and weakening
dynamics from the shortwave will be enough to suppress convection
tonight along and east of the I-35 corridor, but have maintained
20-30 POPs just in case a stronger cold pool develops to help
propagate the system further east. Rain amounts should generally
remain below one inch, but some locally higher amounts are possible
in the Rio Grande Plains and Edwards Plateau that may cause isolated
instances of flash flooding or (more likely) flood advisories.

There will most likely be a brief lull late in the overnight hours
and early tomorrow morning as a closed midlevel low or MCV left
behind from tonight's convection moves over the southern portion of
South Central Texas. Cooling aloft with this feature should help
weaken the cap at 800 mb enough to promote at least scattered if not
widespread showers and thunderstorms by late morning and the
afternoon. The best chances will be over the eastern two-thirds of
the region as the western third should have NVA aloft on the backside
of the low. Shear parameters still appear to be pretty weak, but
moderate instability may support some strong to marginally severe
storms, particularly across our southeastern-most counties. Rain
chances will decrease by the evening hours, but have maintained 203-
POPS over the entire region into Monday evening to account for a few
model solution that suggest a complex north of our area will move to
the south-southwest on the backside of the closed midlevel low later
tomorrow afternoon and evening.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Rain chances will begin to decrease from west to east on Tuesday as
the midlevel low or shear axis continues to weaken and slide to the
east. However, this shear axis should be enough to support the
development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along
and east of Interstate 35 with the best chances in the Coastal
Plains. A mid-to-upper level ridge will build in from the southwest
on Wednesday and intensify further on Thursday to reestablish the
capping inversion aloft and help increase temperatures into the mid
80 to lower 90s for the rest of the work week. Winds on Friday will
strengthen ahead of a relatively strong front that both the GFS and
ECMWF progress through our area Saturday morning or early afternoon.
This should provide a good chance of showers and thunderstorms for at
least the eastern half of our region, but models are beginning to
suggest more dry slotting for the western half. The GFS suggests that
below normal temperatures with dry conditions for at least a few
days behind the front into early next week are looking more likely
with continued northwest flow aloft, but the ECMWF has a weaker front
with temperatures moderating more quickly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              68  81  64  83  66 /  40  50  20  20  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  68  80  64  82  65 /  30  40  20  20  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     68  80  64  82  66 /  40  50  20  20  10
Burnet Muni Airport            65  79  62  80  64 /  50  50  20  20  -
Del Rio Intl Airport           65  82  65  85  67 /  70  20  30  10  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        66  80  63  82  66 /  50  40  20  20  -
Hondo Muni Airport             66  82  67  83  65 /  60  40  30  10  -
San Marcos Muni Airport        68  81  64  82  66 /  40  50  20  20  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   69  81  66  82  66 /  20  40  20  50  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       67  80  66  82  67 /  60  50  20  20  10
Stinson Muni Airport           68  80  67  82  67 /  50  50  20  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for the following
counties: Bandera...Dimmit...Edwards...Frio...Kerr...Kinney...
Maverick...Medina...Real...Uvalde...Val Verde...Zavala.

&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...04
Synoptic/Grids...Oaks
Public Service/Data Collection...YB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
351 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-171200-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
351 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon And Tonight.

Isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible
this evening across the Rio Grande Plains. Damaging winds and
large hail are the main threats. Locally heavy rains are possible
this evening into the overnight across the Rio Grande Plains and
the Edwards Plateau. These rains may cause isolated flash flooding
or small stream flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible in the
afternoon across areas near the Coastal Plains.

Otherwise, no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports may be needed this afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
854 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     HAIL             12 NNE EL INDIO         28.66N 100.22W
04/16/2017  E0.88 INCH       MAVERICK           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BORDER PATROL AGENT REPORTING NICKEL SIZE
            HAIL.

&&

YB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
928 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

TXZ184-185-202-203-170330-
Uvalde TX-Kinney TX-Edwards TX-Real TX-
928 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN KINNEY...WESTERN
UVALDE...SOUTHWESTERN EDWARDS AND REAL COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

At 928 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 13 miles north of Alamo Village to Montell to 6
miles west of Uvalde Estates. Movement was north at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Uvalde, Rocksprings, Leakey, Camp Wood, Laguna, Blewett, Tuff,
Barksdale, Rio Frio, Concan, Vance, Uvalde Estates, Montell, Dabney,
Cline, Garner State Park, Anacacho, Reagan Wells, Turkey Mountain and
Prade Ranch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3005 9970 2910 9970 2910 10030 3005 10053
TIME...MOT...LOC 0228Z 181DEG 24KT 2959 10033 2951 10003 2913 9994

CP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
930 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

TXZ184-202-203-217-218-170330-
Maverick TX-Uvalde TX-Kinney TX-Edwards TX-Zavala TX-
930 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KINNEY...NORTHEASTERN MAVERICK...
WESTERN UVALDE...NORTHWESTERN ZAVALA AND SOUTHWESTERN EDWARDS
COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

At 929 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Carta Valley to 6 miles northwest of Alamo
Village to near Spofford to near Paloma. Movement was northeast at 25
mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Brackettville, Spofford, Blewett, Paloma, Darling, Dabney, Cline,
Anacacho, Alamo Village, Radar Base, Carta Valley, Kickapoo Cavern
State Park, Turkey Mountain and Laughlin Afb Aux Field.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2997 10029 2960 10007 2927 9999 2882 9996
      2882 10052 2987 10070
TIME...MOT...LOC 0229Z 246DEG 20KT 2983 10065 2949 10045 2915 10037
2885 10046

CP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1010 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     HAIL             5 NNE MONTELL           29.60N 100.0W
04/16/2017  E0.75 INCH       UVALDE             TX   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS OBSERVER REPORTING PENNY SIZE HAIL.
            REPORTED VIA EM UVALDE.

&&

YB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1011 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

TXZ184-185-202-203-217-218-228-170415-
Maverick TX-Uvalde TX-Kinney TX-Dimmit TX-Edwards TX-Real TX-
Zavala TX-
1011 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KINNEY...MAVERICK...NORTHWESTERN
DIMMIT...UVALDE...ZAVALA...EDWARDS AND REAL COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM
CDT...

At 1011 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 17 miles south of Sonora to 11 miles northeast
of Flour Mills to 8 miles northwest of Vance to 6 miles southeast of
Camp Wood to 8 miles east of Cline to near Las Colonias to 8 miles
southwest of Cometa to 8 miles southwest of El Indio. Movement was
north at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Eagle Pass, Uvalde, Crystal City, Carrizo Springs, Brackettville,
Rocksprings, Leakey, Spofford, La Pryor, El Indio, Batesville, Camp
Wood, Laguna, Chula Vista-River Spur, Tuff, Concan, Uvalde Estates,
Dabney, Flour Mills and Anacacho.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2848 10037 2850 10033 2852 10039 2858 10040
      2866 10050 2883 10056 3029 10069 3029 9976
      3008 9976 3007 9972 2963 9965 2861 9959
      2833 10030
TIME...MOT...LOC 0311Z 196DEG 24KT 3033 10055 3010 10048 2987 10014
2962 9993 2929 9994 2876 9988 2856 10009 2844 10042

CP

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>