Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
257 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
Latest water vapor images show a long-wave upper level trough
axis extending from the Intermountain West southeast into the
four corners region. This feature is forecast to split this
evening...sending the southern portion of the main trough/short-wave
across northeast Mexico and into our area overnight. At the surface,
a dry-line located across the extreme northwest Val Verde County as
of this writing, is expected to push further west. With that in main
and expected convection along and east of I-35 later tonight, SPC Day
1 Convective Outlook has been updated and now covers most area with
slight risk of severe thunderstorms.

DFX radar is already picking up light to moderate rain-showers along
the Rio Grande and Edwards Plateau areas. This trend is expected to
increase as the upper level short-wave moves to the east this
evening. A hand-full of HiRes models agree on scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop across the Rio Grande later this afternoon
with widespread convection forming early this evening into the
overnight hours. By early this evening, increased instability and
with capping inversion eroding, expect storms to rapidly become
strong to severe. As the night progresses, the severe weather risk
diminishes and transition into a heavy rain event with isolated
strong storms mainly along and east of I-35.

Overall situation from early this evening into the overnight hours
is as follow: strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across most
areas across South Central Texas (exception extreme NW and E).
Primary threats will be wind gusts up to 60 mph and large hail up to
one inch in diameter. Also, heavy rain is expected as the storms move
along and east of Highway 281 due to the fact of well above
precipitable water values (1.4 to 1.7 inches). That said, storm total
rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible with isolated pockets
of 4 to 5 inches mainly along and east of I-35.

The dry-line moves back to the east Monday morning with clearing
expected to begin out west and then into the I-35 corridor by noon
Monday. Since the upper level trough/cutoff low could be right on top
of us during the afternoon hours, decided to keep slight chances
for showers and storms mainly east of Highway 183.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
The upper level system will continue to push to the southeast and
into the Gulf waters while ridging builds over the area Tuesday and
Wednesday of next week for dry and pleasant weather. Dry conditions
persist into next weekend. A cold front is expected to push across
the area late Sunday into Monday and brings our next chances for rain
across the area. Temperatures will be above normal values through the
extended period even with the passage of dry front on Friday and the
wet one late Sunday into Monday of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              62  73  53  79  52 / 100  40  -   -    0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  61  71  52  78  50 / 100  50  -   -    0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     61  72  53  79  51 / 100  40  -   -    0
Burnet Muni Airport            58  71  49  76  48 / 100  20  -   -    0
Del Rio Intl Airport           55  77  50  82  48 /  50  10   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        61  71  51  77  49 / 100  40  -   -    0
Hondo Muni Airport             59  74  49  81  48 /  70  20  -    0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        62  71  53  79  51 / 100  50  -   -    0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   64  72  55  77  53 / 100  60  10  10  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       61  73  53  79  52 / 100  30  -   -    0
Stinson Muni Airport           62  73  54  79  52 / 100  30  -   -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...24
Synoptic/Grids...17
Public Service/Data Collection...Treadway

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
816 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-201430-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
816 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

A strong upper level storm system will move across Texas late this
afternoon through Monday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will
become more numerous late this afternoon after 5pm, overnight, and
persist into the Coastal Plains through Monday morning. The
greatest coverage will be from the eastern Hill Country across the
I-35 corridor and into the Coastal Plains. There is the potential
for strong to severe storms this afternoon into tonight across
much of South Central Texas with the highest risk being from Del
Rio eastward to the I-35 corridor including the Texas Hill
Country. The main threats will be hail up to 1 inch in diameter
and wind gusts up to 60 mph. There is also the potential for heavy
rain mainly along and east of I-35 Sunday into Monday where
average rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected with
isolated 4 to 5 inches possible, including in and around the
Austin and San Antonio metro areas.

Areas along and east of U.S. Highway 281 could experience minor
flooding across small streams,creeks, and canals. Also, heavy rain
may prompt brief closures of low water crossings and area roadways.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Heavy rainfall will be ongoing across the Coastal Plains through
Monday morning that could lead to localized flash and river
flooding issues. Rain coverage will decrease from west to east
across the entire region by mid-morning.

After Monday morning, no hazardous weather is expected at this
time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to submit severe and rainfall reports
Sunday afternoon into Monday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
425 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2017

TXZ202-192315-
Kinney TX-
425 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN KINNEY COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM CST...

At 425 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Brackettville, moving north at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Brackettville and Alamo Village.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2926 10034 2929 10052 2961 10051 2960 10019
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 190DEG 15KT 2936 10043

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
439 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2017

TXZ183-184-192330-
Val Verde TX-Edwards TX-
439 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN EDWARDS AND
NORTHEASTERN VAL VERDE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CST...

At 439 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Flour Mills, or 8 miles northeast of Loma Alta, moving north at 20
mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Loma Alta, Flour Mills and Vinegarone.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3029 10072 3028 10040 2991 10057 2992 10087
      3029 10096
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 192DEG 18KT 3003 10071

MSL