Special Weather Statement, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
251 PM MDT Mon Jul 31 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture and rain chances will be on the increase over the next 24
hours and we could see some heavy rain and isolated flash flooding
both tonight and again on Tuesday. The best chance for heavy rain
will be north of Interstate 10. Drier air move in for lower rain
chances for Wednesday and Thursday, but then moisture and rain
chances increase again for Friday into the weekend. Temperatures
for most of the next seven days will run a few degrees below
average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Looks like an active next 24 hours and then a break of a couple of
days and then another 24 hours active period (if not longer).
Currently our old friend the upper level high ridge is moving
across New Mexico to settle well to our west over Nevada. As it
moves to our west the circulation around the high will pull lots
of mid and high level moisture down from the north. At the same
time a weak back door front will push in from the east to help
sweep in some extra low level moisture and provide a focus for
convection. All the latest models, 18Z NAM, 18Z HRRR, and the 12Z
WRF from University of Arizona, are beginning to point to a heavy
rain event over the northern part of the area. I have gone ahead
and issued a flash flood watch for the northern part of our area.
Isolated rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches will be possible in the
overnight hours into tomorrow morning. Once the front gets
through drier air will sweep in and that will give us a strong
down turn in our rain activity. Both the NAM and GFS indicate that
we may not have any rain on Wednesday and Thursday. I am not so
bold to pull all the rain chances, but I have taken our pops down
a lot. I still think we could see a few isolated storms both
days. By the end of the week it looks like both the GFS and to a
less degree the ECMWF push yet another front into the region. This
front, like tonight's, will give our rain chances a big boost, so
we may see another chance for widespread heavy rain on Friday
evening. For the weekend both extended models keep us active with
plenty of moisture and instability. It is to early to tell, just
how active, but it will need to be something we keep an eye on.
Temperatures, today will be the warmest of the week. As the
moisture and clouds arrive starting tomorrow, we will see slightly
below normal temperatures through the end of the week into the
coming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 01/00Z-02/00Z...SCT MTN +TSRAGS/WND
VRB30G50KT/CIGS 060-100 MSL/VSBY 2-4 SM THRU 02Z....then ISOLD
TSRA/WND VRB20G40KT thru 07Z.  SCT-NUM lowland +TSRA/WND
VRB30G50KT/CIGS 060-100 MSL/VSBY 1-3 SM THRU 12Z....then ISOLD
TSRA/WND VB20G40KT thru 15Z. Sky cond FEW070-110 SCT150-190 SCT-BKN
300-400 outside storms. Circulation around high pressure aloft over
the great basin...will slowly drive storms north to south over
southern New Mexico starting tonight and through TUE.  Winds
generally light and variable thru 08Z...shifting 050-080 AOB 10 kts
after for all terminals through end of period...as a weak back door
cold front moves in.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The rest of this afternoon will be a bit more on the quiet side
compared to yesterday with storm activity.  However approach of a
weak back door cold front overnight...will likely enhance storm
coverage and intensity early this evening ahead of this feature.
Scattered to numerous storms will continue through early
Wednesday...before relatively drier continental air moves in from
the northeast Wednesday afternoon and reduces NM and far west TX
storm coverage thru Wed evening.  Very active weather with scattered
to numerous storms could return starting late Thursday...as another
back door cold frontal boundary remains forecast to move in Thursday
evening.  Flash flooding and high winds remain the main threats with
storms through the work week.  Circulation around building high
pressure aloft over the great basin...will slowly drive storms from
north to south.  This pattern will exacerbate the wind threat
particularly for the Rio Grande valley and Tularosa basin sp late
day/early evng...where channeling from terrain effects could further
strengthen outflow winds.

Little change with min RH trends is expected...except for northern
zones on Wednesday...where values could fall roughly 5-10 percent.
today should be the warmest day of the week...as fronts work to
maintain highs just below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 73  90  70  89 /  40  30  20  10
Sierra Blanca           69  86  67  85 /  40  30  30  10
Las Cruces              69  88  68  87 /  30  30  30  10
Alamogordo              68  86  67  87 /  70  40  20  10
Cloudcroft              52  64  50  67 /  70  60  20  20
Truth or Consequences   68  87  67  88 /  70  30  20  10
Silver City             62  81  62  82 /  60  30  30  40
Deming                  68  88  68  88 /  30  30  40  10
Lordsburg               67  87  68  88 /  50  30  50  40
West El Paso Metro      72  90  70  88 /  40  30  30  10
Dell City               69  88  68  88 /  40  30  20  10
Fort Hancock            73  91  71  89 /  40  40  30  10
Loma Linda              66  82  64  82 /  40  30  20  10
Fabens                  72  90  71  89 /  40  30  30  10
Santa Teresa            71  89  69  88 /  30  30  30  10
White Sands HQ          70  88  69  88 /  40  30  20  10
Jornada Range           68  88  67  88 /  60  30  20  10
Hatch                   69  90  67  90 /  70  30  20  10
Columbus                69  89  69  88 /  30  40  50  10
Orogrande               70  87  69  88 /  40  30  20  10
Mayhill                 56  72  55  75 /  70  60  20  20
Mescalero               57  73  55  76 /  70  60  20  20
Timberon                56  72  55  74 /  50  50  20  20
Winston                 59  78  59  82 /  70  40  30  30
Hillsboro               65  85  64  86 /  70  30  30  40
Spaceport               67  88  66  88 /  70  30  20  10
Lake Roberts            58  79  58  81 /  70  40  30  40
Hurley                  63  83  63  83 /  60  30  30  30
Cliff                   64  86  64  88 /  60  30  40  40
Mule Creek              64  83  64  85 /  50  40  50  40
Faywood                 64  84  63  84 /  70  30  30  20
Animas                  67  87  68  87 /  50  40  40  40
Hachita                 66  88  66  87 /  40  40  50  30
Antelope Wells          66  87  66  87 /  40  40  50  20
Cloverdale              64  83  65  83 /  40  40  50  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Flash Flood Watch from 6 PM MDT this evening through Tuesday
     morning for NMZ402-403-408>410-412-414>416.

TX...None.
&&

Brice/Tripoli

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1135 AM MDT Mon Jul 31 2017

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-011745-
Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes-
Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-
Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County-
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-
1135 AM MDT Mon Jul 31 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon
and evening. These storms drift slowly to the north or northeast.
The slow motion of these storms will produce heavy rain in a few
spots. This heavy rain could lead to some isolated flash flooding.
These storms will also be capable of producing small hail and wind
gusts of 25 to 35 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday
Moisture and rain chances will increase on Tuesday. There is a
threat of heavy rain and flash flooding will be possible on
Tuesday. Drier conditions will prevail on Wednesday and Thursday
but then moisture and heavy rain possibilities return for Friday.
The weekend will see a continued chance of afternoon and evening
thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are asked to submit significant weather reports to our
office via our 800 spotter number or via Twitter with our office
username of @NWSElPaso

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
1232 PM MDT MON JUL 31 2017

NMZ414-415-311915-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet NM-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet NM-
1232 PM MDT MON JUL 31 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OTERO COUNTY UNTIL 115 PM
MDT...

At 1230 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sacramento, or 11 miles northeast of Timberon, moving southeast at 10
mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Timberon, Sacramento and Bluff Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.  Radar indicates rainfall rates of over an inch per hour
are occurring with this storm.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3291 10557 3288 10552 3287 10557 3286 10554
      3285 10565 3284 10553 3280 10559 3280 10553
      3274 10554 3273 10556 3273 10553 3270 10554
      3270 10552 3268 10557 3264 10554 3257 10569
      3290 10575 3294 10555
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 334DEG 9KT 3279 10561

NOVLAN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
217 PM MDT MON JUL 31 2017

NMZ414>417-312100-
Otero Mesa NM-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet NM-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet NM-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet NM-
217 PM MDT MON JUL 31 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OTERO COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM
MDT...

At 215 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking  strong thunderstorms 9
miles southeast of Timberon to south of Mayhill, moving south at 15
mph.

Dime to nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Timberon and Pinon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3246 10563 3266 10579 3286 10540 3275 10535
      3256 10535
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 344DEG 13KT 3255 10557

NOVLAN

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