Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
345 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Minor amounts of moisture remain over the region and daytime
heating may spawn a few storms Wednesday and Thursday afternoon,
primarily over area mountains. High pressure continues to build
and strengthen over the region. This will continue the heatwave,
which will get much worse through the work week, before it gets
better for the weekend. Lowland highs 105 to 110 and above are
likely Wednesday through Friday afternoons. Nights will also stay
warm. Heat-related illness is a big concern across the lowlands
through the week. For the weekend a backdoor front pushes in from
the northeast to cool the region back to normal and reintroduce a
bit of moisture for the potential for more showers and
thunderstorms each day beginning Saturday into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Plenty of moisture lingers today with AM dewpoints in the 60s and
PWs above 1". However we also have a strengthening dome of high
pressure over the region. This feature is working hard to suppress
storm initiation, but area mountains have enough orographic lift
to bust through the inhibition of the capping high pressure and
warm temperatures aloft. Thus we will see some isolated, mainly
mountain, storms this afternoon. We will see similar conditions
again for Wednesday with the residual moisture recycled again for
isolated storms mainly focused on the area mountains.

As the upper high continues to recenter over the region and
strengthen the region will see a continuation of the SW heat wave.
In fact with the high getting stronger our temperatures will get
much warmer. A head advisory is likely to be needed for WED night
through SAT morning with lowlands well into the triple digits and
warm nights. Thursday may see a few lingering storms, but most of
the area should stay dry as the environment continues warm and
dry.

Thursday and Friday will be the HOTTEST days of this forecast
cycle with ELP highs near 110 and near records. Heat will be the
main and significant hazard across the region.

Friday evening/night a backdoor front will push in from the
central plains with east winds pushing a return of gulf moisture
to the area. From this time onward we will see some cooling with
afternoon temperatures back down near normal, and with enough
moisture that isolated showers and thunderstorms return to the
forecast. This pattern will continue into next week.

14-Bird

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 21/00Z-22/00Z...
VFR conditions with SCT MTN -TSRA til 04Z. Winds SE AOB 12KTS
thru period. BLDU with VSBY blo 1/2SM in VCTY of TSTMs. VRB gusts
40 to 50 kts with isolated strong TSTMS.

28-Pazos

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today low level moisture continues to be trapped under the upper
level ridge. This will once again help fuel scattered afternoon
mountain storms. Rainfall accumulations will be minimal. The main
threat with these storms will continue to be dry lightning, and
strong downburst wind gusts. With an LAL of 4 the next two days in
the higher terrain the potential for a new lightning starts will be
high. The high pressure aloft will continue to dominate over the
area for the remainder of the week. As a result by mid week daytime
high temperatures will reach 108 in some lowland locations and the
90s in some area mountain locations. On Wednesday drier air begins
to moves into the area reducing storm chances but does not rule them
out completely. There is still a possibility for an isolated storm
or two over the higher terrain. Storm chances increase over the
weekend with a cool down as a a backdoor cool front crosses the
region.

28-Pazos

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 77 104  77 109 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           72 101  72 106 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              73 103  73 108 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              71 102  72 106 /  10  10  10   0
Cloudcroft              57  81  59  85 /  20  30  20  10
Truth or Consequences   74 103  73 107 /  20  10  20   0
Silver City             69  98  69 101 /  30  20  10   0
Deming                  71 104  72 109 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               72 104  73 108 /  10   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      77 104  77 109 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               70 103  70 108 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            74 104  74 109 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              73  99  75 104 /  10   0   0   0
Fabens                  75 105  75 109 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            73 104  74 108 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          76 102  77 107 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           72 103  72 108 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   72 105  72 109 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                74 105  74 110 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               75 103  75 108 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 61  89  62  94 /  20  40  20  10
Mescalero               60  90  61  94 /  20  30  20  10
Timberon                61  88  62  92 /  20  20  20  10
Winston                 64  96  64  99 /  30  40  20   0
Hillsboro               68 100  70 104 /  20  20  20   0
Spaceport               69 104  70 108 /  10   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            61  96  60  99 /  30  20  20   0
Hurley                  67  99  68 103 /  30  20  10   0
Cliff                   67 103  67 107 /  30  20  10   0
Mule Creek              70 101  70 105 /  30  10  10   0
Faywood                 69 100  69 104 /  20  10  10   0
Animas                  72 105  74 108 /  20   0   0   0
Hachita                 71 104  73 108 /  10   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          72 104  73 106 /  20   0   0   0
Cloverdale              72 101  71 102 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

14/28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1124 AM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-211730-
Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes-
Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-
Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County-
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-
1124 AM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Hot temperatures continue with lowland readings in the upper 90s
to around 100 to 103 degrees this afternoon. Thus there will be
health concerns due to heat.

Patchy areas of smoke from regional wildfires will be noted in
portions of Grant and western Sierra County. The smoke may also
cause respiratory problems over a few locations.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over most of the
Borderland this afternoon and tonight; but favoring the area
mountains and lowlands west of the Rio Grande. Isolated severe
thunderstorms are also expected with moderate-sized hail, and
strong gusty outflow winds. Hail and wind could do minor damage
over isolated locations. In addition, blowing dust could pose a
serious travel threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

More isolated storms possible Wednesday and Thursday, a few may
produce small to moderate hail, gusty winds, and blowing dust.

The threat for Wednesday through Friday will be the return of
very hot weather. Near record high temperatures from 105-111 with
warmer than normal nights with minimum temperatures in the upper
70s to possibly the lower 80s. These conditions will mostly
likely necessitate heat advisories for health concerns.

For the weekend a backdoor front from the east will enter the area
from the east. This should drop afternoon temperatures 10-15,
resulting in near normal readings. A return of moisture with the
east winds will likely also result in isolated to scattered rain
showers and thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to call in reports of significant weather,
and weather effects, in real time to help the NWS facilitate
notification of the public to ongoing weather dangers.

Bird

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
258 PM MDT TUE JUN 20 2017

NMZ409-410-202145-
Northern Dona Ana County NM-Sierra County Lakes NM-
258 PM MDT TUE JUN 20 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SIERRA AND NORTH
CENTRAL DONA ANA COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM MDT...

At 258 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles east of Upham, or 26 miles northeast of Hatch, moving west at
15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 45 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Sierra
and north central Dona Ana Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3293 10667 3282 10660 3265 10684 3292 10701
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 074DEG 15KT 3285 10676

LANEY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
656 PM MDT TUE JUN 20 2017

NMZ409-210145-
Sierra County Lakes NM-
656 PM MDT TUE JUN 20 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SIERRA COUNTY UNTIL 745
PM MDT...

At 655 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Engle, or 11 miles east of Truth Or Consequences,
moving southwest at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 45 mph will be possible with
this storm. Interests near Caballo Lake and Elephant Butte Lake need
to be on the lookout for gusty outflow winds of 40 to 45 mph from
this storm over the next hour.

Locations impacted include...
Caballo and Upham.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3319 10713 3309 10692 3283 10701 3297 10733
TIME...MOT...LOC 0055Z 027DEG 7KT 3307 10706

LANEY