Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
200 PM MDT Mon Jun 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm moist unstable air will flow into southern New Mexico and
west Texas under high pressure aloft. This weather pattern will
produce a few showers and thunderstorms along with warm above
normal temperatures through Friday. Westerly winds will bring
continued warm but mostly dry weather next Saturday through
Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Larger scale regional circulation pattern will exhibit little
change the next several days as a high amplitude ridge axis will
stay aligned on a north to south axis through central and western
New Mexico. Attendant subsidence and abundant solar heating will
thus combine to keep afternoon high temperatures around 5 to 10
degrees above normal.

At low levels surface trough associated with thermal/thickness
ridge will also extend through central or western portions of the
CWA through Friday with occasional development of a closed
surface low over the area. This feature will induce mostly east to
southeast winds west of it's axis with transport of moist air in
the boundary layer sustaining mid 40s to mid 50s F dewpoints west
to east into Friday. Precipitable water will thus remain elevated
during this time ranging mostly from .75 inch west to 1.1 inches
east. The combination of warm surface temperatures and low level
moisture will make air mass moderately unstable in the afternoon
as MUCAPES expected to be around 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Therefore
despite lack of favorable dynamics aloft expect isolated to
scattered convection through Friday as initiation mechanisms
should include surface heating, low level convergence due to
trough, orographic lift and outflow boundaries.

Given the abundant moisture and slow storm movement several areas
may experience heavy rains and even localized flooding. In
addition the instability and low level moisture may support
several storms producing larger hail. Finally forecasted DCAPE's
above 1000 suggest a risk of damaging downdrafts.

Friday through Monday a very deep for June upper trough will move
slowly eastward across the western United States with attendant
downslope winds causing surface trough to shift to eastern New
Mexico. This pattern change will produce strengthening low and
mid level west to southwest winds across southern New Mexico and
west Texas with inflow of warm but much drier air mass causing
precipitable water decreases to below .3 inch by Sunday
afternoon. So expect continued warm but mostly dry weather after
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 06/00Z-07/00Z...
Less storm activity expected thru the period with most storms
favoring the higher terrain and North of SVC - ELP line. Gnly few-
sct 060-080 100-140 and 200-250 becoming sct-bkn later in the fcst
period.  Winds gnly NE-SE 5-10 isold gust 16 kts. With a relatively
dry atmosphere in the lower atmosphere...storms could produce very
little rain, strong outflow winds, and dry lighting.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A ridge of high pressure aloft will warmer temperatures this
afternoon. Max temps for the lowlands will be upper 90s to around
100 degrees. A few thunderstorms will still be possible mainly east
of the rio Grande over the Sacramento Mountains and possibly the
Gila Region. Dry lightning strikes are possible as the lower
atmosphere is quite dry. Moisture is forecast to increase on Tuesday
night providing an increase in thunderstorm activity on Wednesday
and Thursday. A return to hot, dry, and breezy weather is expected
this weekend as an upper trough from the west approaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 73  98  71  95 /   0  20  30  10
Sierra Blanca           68  94  65  90 /  10  30  40  20
Las Cruces              68  97  67  93 /   0  10  30  20
Alamogordo              65  94  65  90 /   0  20  30  20
Cloudcroft              49  71  51  69 /  20  70  50  50
Truth or Consequences   67  97  67  92 /   0  10  30  20
Silver City             60  92  60  89 /   0  20  10  20
Deming                  65  99  66  94 /   0  10   0  10
Lordsburg               64  99  66  95 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      73  97  71  94 /   0  10  30  10
Dell City               64  95  64  92 /  10  40  40  20
Fort Hancock            70  98  70  94 /  10  30  40  20
Loma Linda              68  93  65  89 /  10  30  30  20
Fabens                  71  98  71  95 /   0  20  30  10
Santa Teresa            70  98  69  94 /   0  10  30  10
White Sands HQ          70  96  68  92 /   0  20  30  20
Jornada Range           66  96  66  92 /   0  20  30  20
Hatch                   65 100  66  95 /   0  10  20  20
Columbus                67 100  69  95 /   0   0   0  10
Orogrande               71  96  68  92 /   0  20  30  20
Mayhill                 51  79  53  75 /  20  70  50  60
Mescalero               52  81  54  78 /  20  60  50  40
Timberon                51  79  54  77 /  20  70  50  50
Winston                 52  88  55  84 /  10  30  20  30
Hillsboro               61  92  62  90 /   0  30  20  40
Spaceport               62  97  63  92 /   0  10  30  20
Lake Roberts            49  89  53  87 /  20  30  20  30
Hurley                  56  93  59  88 /   0  10   0  20
Cliff                   58  98  61  94 /   0  10   0  20
Mule Creek              61  94  62  92 /   0   0   0  10
Faywood                 61  94  61  89 /   0  10  10  30
Animas                  65  99  67  96 /   0   0  10   0
Hachita                 63 100  66  96 /   0   0  10   0
Antelope Wells          64  99  66  94 /   0   0  10  10
Cloverdale              61  95  64  92 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

05 Rogash/20 Novlan