Alert archive / New Mexico / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2017

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS El Paso, TX

July 19, 2017Sierra County, New Mexico

NWS El Paso, TX issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 19, 2017, 7:03 PM MDT for Sierra County, New Mexico. It was in force for 42 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 19, 2017, 7:03 PM MDT (01:03 UTC)
Expired: Jul 19, 2017, 7:45 PM MDT
In force: 42 min
Issued by: NWS El Paso, TX
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 0.88 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Sierra County, NM

The radar

The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 139 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Santa Teresa, NM (KEPZ), launched 00:00Z, 1.1 hours before the alert went out and 175 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 181 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -154 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1348 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 13 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -65 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -20 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

688 
WUUS54 KEPZ 200103
SVREPZ
NMC051-200145-
/O.NEW.KEPZ.SV.W.0103.170720T0103Z-170720T0145Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service El Paso TX
703 PM MDT WED JUL 19 2017

The National Weather Service in El Paso has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northwestern Sierra County in north central New Mexico...

* Until 745 PM MDT

* At 703 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Cuchillo, or
  11 miles northwest of Truth Or Consequences, moving west at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail. 

  SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

  IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

* Locations impacted include...
  Winston...
  Placitas In Sierra County...
  Chloride...
  Hermosa...
  Cuchillo...
  and Alamosa Canyon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3330 10725 3303 10739 3311 10785 3313 10784
      3313 10785 3348 10775 3348 10765
TIME...MOT...LOC 0103Z 110DEG 20KT 3322 10741 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CRESPO

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 19, 3:48 PM MDT, 3 hours 15 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 19, 3:48 PM MDT, 3 hours 15 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
348 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure over the west Texas will move across
southern New Mexico tonight, bringing scattered thunderstorms and
a chance of heavy rain and flooding to areas near the International
Border. On Thursday and Friday the upper high over the central
Plains moves over the central Mississippi Valley and then
continues east after. This will allow moist south flow to move
into the area by the weekend. Thunderstorm coverage will increase
over the weekend into the beginning of next week. Winds aloft will
become weak, so storm movement will be slow, increasing the flood
potential across the Borderland.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Inverted trough aloft continues moving into the southeast CWA this
afternoon in large scale southeast flow over the area. WV imagery
showing moisture covering all west Texas zones and also southern
Otero County. Scattered thunderstorms have developed across El
Paso and Hudspeth Counties. Was not expecting much severe
potential, but one severe storm popped up in eastern El Paso
County. Still think flooding is main threat tonight with the
trough. PWs over west Texas currently around 1.1 inch but TPW
product shows 1.3 and 1.4 inches with the trough moving toward the
area. Saving grace may be storm speeds are relatively fast
(around 15-25 mph), but will still have to watch flood sensitive
areas in El Paso County.

Thursday and Friday...pattern begins changing as upper high that
has been over the central Plains begins moving east, over the
central Mississippi Valley Friday morning and then continuing east
to consolidate with the Bermuda high. Flow aloft becomes southerly
over the CWA with good import of moisture. GFS showing PWs of 1.3
to 1.5 inches over the weekend and into next week. Southerly flow
aloft will become quite disjointed by the weekend as new upper
high forms over the Great Basin. This will turn flow more north,
but GFS also intimating persistent weak upper trough over the
eastern CWA. Bottom line is flow will be weak and erratic leading
to slow storm movement and flooding.

Long range shows some drying out Wednesday and Thursday, with
storms back to isolated. GFS shows another potential inverted
trough moving up toward the area toward next weekend, though ECMWF
shows little or no indication of that.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 20/00Z-21/00Z... P6SM SCT-BKN050-070 BKN-OVC150-
200 through much of the period. Scattered VRB20G35KT 1-3SM TSRA
BKN020-040 west of KTCS-KELP line and isolated to the east. Storms
will mainly occur before 03Z and again after 16Z, but isolated
storms may continue through night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper ridge currently to east of area will be moving east and get
broken down over the coming days.  This will allow the deeper
moisture currently over Arizona to move into New Mexico by the end
of the week.  Expect isolated to scattered storms today and tomorrow
with an increase areawide by Friday and continuing into early next
week.  As flow aloft weakens, storms will be very slow moving with
the threat for flooding on the increase.  Temperatures will be near
to slightly below normal. With weaker winds aloft, vent rates will
be falling into the fair to good categories.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 73  89  71  92 /  40  20  20  20
Sierra Blanca           69  89  68  90 /  30  20  20  20
Las Cruces              69  89  67  91 /  50  20  20  20
Alamogordo              69  90  68  93 /  10  20  20  20
Cloudcroft              49  68  51  69 /  10  40  20  60
Truth or Consequences   69  91  68  95 /  20  20  30  20
Silver City             60  85  61  86 /  50  60  50  50
Deming                  70  88  66  91 /  50  40  30  30
Lordsburg               68  88  65  90 /  50  50  40  40
West El Paso Metro      72  89  70  90 /  40  20  20  20
Dell City               70  93  69  95 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Hancock            75  90  73  92 /  30  20  20  20
Loma Linda              64  82  64  83 /  30  20  20  20
Fabens                  74  89  70  91 /  40  20  20  20
Santa Teresa            72  88  68  90 /  40  20  20  20
White Sands HQ          70  87  69  92 /  20  20  20  30
Jornada Range           67  90  67  95 /  20  20  20  30
Hatch                   68  89  66  93 /  40  30  20  20
Columbus                70  87  67  91 /  50  30  30  30
Orogrande               72  90  67  92 /  20  20  20  20
Mayhill                 53  81  55  80 /  10  40  20  50
Mescalero               55  79  56  80 /  10  40  20  60
Timberon                54  77  54  78 /  10  30  20  50
Winston                 57  83  57  85 /  20  50  40  50
Hillsboro               63  90  63  90 /  40  40  40  40
Spaceport               67  90  66  95 /  20  20  20  30
Lake Roberts            53  82  53  84 /  40  60  50  70
Hurley                  61  85  60  86 /  50  50  40  40
Cliff                   59  86  60  88 /  40  60  50  60
Mule Creek              60  85  60  87 /  30  60  50  60
Faywood                 62  85  61  87 /  50  50  40  30
Animas                  69  89  65  90 /  50  60  40  50
Hachita                 67  89  64  90 /  50  50  40  40
Antelope Wells          66  84  63  86 /  50  50  40  60
Cloverdale              64  83  61  81 /  50  60  50  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hefner/Grzywacz

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 19, 12:05 PM MDT, 6 hours 58 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1205 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-201815-
Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes-
Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-
Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County-
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-
1205 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and into much of the night.
A few of these storms could produce heavy rain and local flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms through Friday, then becoming
scattered to numerous over the weekend into the beginning of next
week. Heavy rain and flash flooding will be the main threat in
this period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Hefner

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 19, 5:40 PM MDT, 1 hour 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
540 PM MDT WED JUL 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     TSTM WND GST     KDMN                    32.26N 107.72W
07/19/2017  M55 MPH          LUNA               NM   ASOS

            GUST TO 55 MPH AT DEMING AIRPORT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1700336

FAUSETT

Local storm report, Jul 19, 5:47 PM MDT, 1 hour 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
547 PM MDT WED JUL 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0543 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 S DEMING              32.16N 107.75W
07/19/2017                   LUNA               NM   AMATEUR RADIO

            AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR HAD EAST FACING WINDOWS BLOWN
            OUT AT HIS HOUSE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1700337

FAUSETT

Special weather statement, Jul 19, 5:52 PM MDT, 1 hour 11 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
552 PM MDT WED JUL 19 2017

NMZ409-200030-
Sierra County Lakes NM-
552 PM MDT WED JUL 19 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL SIERRA COUNTY UNTIL
630 PM MDT...

At 552 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Engle, or 19 miles east of Truth Or Consequences,
moving northwest at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 50 mph with blowing dust will
be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Truth Or Consequences, Elephant Butte and Engle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3318 10676 3303 10688 3316 10725 3342 10703
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 126DEG 18KT 3316 10691

CRESPO

Local storm report, Jul 19, 6:45 PM MDT, 18 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
645 PM MDT WED JUL 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 S DEMING              32.15N 107.75W
07/19/2017                   LUNA               NM   AMATEUR RADIO

            TRACTOR TRAILER OVERTURNED BY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW ON
            HIGHWAY 11 SOUTH OF DEMING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1700338

FAUSETT

Local storm report, Jul 19, 6:51 PM MDT, 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
651 PM MDT WED JUL 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0549 PM     TSTM WND GST     18 SSW DEMING           32.02N 107.87W
07/19/2017  M61 MPH          LUNA               NM   OTHER FEDERAL

            AEROSTAT BALLOON SITE MEASURED A 61 MPH WIND GUST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1700339

FAUSETT

Local storm report, Jul 19, 7:00 PM MDT, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
700 PM MDT WED JUL 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E TRUTH OR CONSEQUENC 33.14N 107.24W
07/19/2017                   SIERRA             NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW RESULTED IN NUMEROUS LARGE TREES
            DOWNED... TWO SHEDS BLOWN OVER AND ROOF BLOWN OFF
            RESTAURANT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1700340

FAUSETT

The office that day

Everything else NWS El Paso, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 19, 6:18 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EPZ	Grant, Hidalgo, Luna	57 min
Jul 19, 7:16 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EPZ	Hidalgo	44 min
Jul 19, 7:35 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EPZ	Hidalgo	55 min
Jul 19, 7:49 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	EPZ	Sierra	26 min
Jul 20, 12:40 PM MDT	Flash Flood Warning	EPZ	Otero	3 hr
Jul 20, 2:05 PM MDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EPZ	Otero	3 hr
Jul 20, 2:15 PM MDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EPZ	Grant, Sierra	3 hr
Jul 20, 3:01 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	EPZ	Hidalgo	44 min
Jul 20, 4:06 PM MDT	Flash Flood Warning	EPZ	Hidalgo	3 hr
Jul 20, 4:23 PM MDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EPZ	Sierra	3 hr
Jul 20, 5:17 PM MDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EPZ	Grant, Sierra	3 hr
Jul 20, 5:39 PM MDT	Flash Flood Warning	EPZ	Grant	3 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in New Mexico, 2017 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.