Red Flag Warning 24, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
304 AM MST Fri Nov 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry west flow aloft persisting today and Saturday with just some
higher clouds moving through. Cold front moves in from the north
and east Saturday morning. After near record high temperatures
today, highs on Saturday will be about 12-15 degrees cooler,
though this is still near normal for this time of the year. Upper
high builds over the western U.S. Sunday through mid week of next
week. This will continue the dry weather with above normal
temperatures. Another cool front does move in Tuesday for cool
temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Relatively quiet with very little weather over the next seven
days, though some crisp little features will move in next several
days. In the short term, upper high persists (broken record) over
the Baja and western Mexico. Considerable higher level moisture
streaming around the top of the high but remaining mostly north of
the area. MIMIC-TPW imagery shows deeper stream of moisture moving
into southern California and lasting into this afternoon, but
again, moisture remains northwest of our area (seems to be a
reoccurring theme). Expect near record highs today. El Paso
forecast high would tie record. Breezy afternoon winds could even
push us past the record (82 deg). These breezy winds could produce
some lowland blowing dust, especially near the Lordsburg Playa.

Upper trough moves over Colorado and northern New Mexico tonight.
Decent moisture with the trough further north but not over us.
What the trough does for us is bring down a cool surge out of the
Great Basin for a side door attack early Saturday morning. Looks
like best winds may be down the Rio Grande Valley near the Sierra
Co Lakes region. Surface high pressure surge finally moves out
over the southern Plains Saturday afternoon and should help pick
up gusty winds along west slopes of our mountains, though not
expecting much more than 30 mph gusts. Temperatures will cool
about 12-15 degrees from today, though this still puts us right
around normal for this time of the year. Despite cold advection,
models showing airmass quite dry so don't expect any low clouds
around the Sac Mtns. Overnight lows Saturday night could be quite
chilly, and some new areas of the lowlands could see their first
freeze of the season. This would be mainly Luna and Hidalgo
Counties and far northern Dona Ana County.

Sunday and beyond...Baja upper high begins rebuilding and becomes
more amplified than it has been this week. This will keep us in
a continued dry and mainly warm period, though not as warm as this
past week was. NAM and to lesser degree, ECMWF and GFS, pick up
on strong 110+ kt jet diving down front side of ridge and over New
Mexico Sunday afternoon. At the surface southeast return flow
tries to push some moisture back towards us. Looks like combo of
upper jet left front quad and this moisture will meet over
northern Mexico. Should not effect us but something to watch.
Gradual warm up Monday and Tuesday, though upper low dropping down
front of ridge will bring another backdoor front into Tuesday.
Looks like just slight cooling Tuesday with more cooling
Wednesday. GFS does show bit more low level moisture with this
front, so Sacs could see some low clouds/fog with this feature.
Upper ridge nearly makes it over to New Mexico by Thursday,
creating another nice warm up.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 17/12Z-18/12Z...
Dry zonal flow aloft thru fcst pd. SKC-SCT250. Towards end of
period...increasing SCT150 SCT-BKN250. Sfc Winds increasing to
west at 15-20 kts...with a few gusts to 30 kts from 18Z-00Z. Few
areas of 3SM BLDU with these winds, mainly near the Lordsburg
Playa.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather and mainly warm temperatures for the forecast period.
Breezy winds 15-25 mph this afternoon, could worsen fire
conditions. Red Flag criteria could be briefly met this afternoon
lowland zones, but likely to short to issue the Flag. Near record
high temperatures today followed by cool down of 10-15 degrees
Saturday back to near normal as cold front moves in. Upper high
rebuilds over the western U.S. Sunday and beyond. Warm Sunday and
Monday, but then cool down again Tuesday and Wednesday as another
cool front moves in. Min RHs 10-15% today, then 15-25% Saturday
and Sunday with cooler temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 82  53  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           83  49  67  37 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              81  47  67  35 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              75  45  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              64  36  49  25 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   80  44  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             73  42  65  34 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  80  44  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               80  44  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      80  53  65  43 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               82  49  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            85  51  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              78  48  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  82  51  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            81  49  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          81  48  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           79  41  63  32 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   81  43  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                82  47  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               81  48  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 72  41  57  26 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               71  39  60  28 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                68  40  56  26 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 74  33  63  25 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               78  43  64  33 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               81  37  65  29 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            75  35  68  26 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  76  41  65  32 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   79  31  69  27 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              77  31  69  27 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 78  43  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  84  44  73  37 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 81  43  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          82  44  72  36 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              78  46  72  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

17 Hefner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
316 AM MST Fri Nov 17 2017

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-181200-
Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes-
Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-
Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County-
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-
316 AM MST Fri Nov 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Breezy afternoon winds of 15-25 mph could create few areas of
blowing dust over desert areas, mainly near Lordsburg Playa. Brief
low visibilities possible in this dust. Also, most of the lowlands
could see near critical fire conditions this afternoon with the
winds and low humidities.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Hefner