Red Flag Warning 19, NWS El Paso, TX

203 
WWUS84 KEPZ 160217
RFWEPZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
817 PM MDT Mon May 15 2017

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO MOST OF
THIS WEEK...

.A series of moderate to strong upper level troughs of low
pressure will move through the Central and Southern Rockies
affecting New Mexico most of this week. The result will be
periods of strong gusty dry surface winds bringing critical fire
weather conditions with winds of 25 to 35 mph and humidities less
than 15%.  Gusts to 50 mph or more expected.

NMZ110>113-TXZ055-056-161500-
/O.CON.KEPZ.FW.W.0019.170516T1800Z-170517T0200Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 110 
 SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 111 
 SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 
 SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 113 
 CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ-
TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 055 
 EL PASO COUNTY-TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 056 
 HUDSPETH COUNTY-
817 PM MDT Mon May 15 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT
TUESDAY FOR SUSTAINED FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 055, 056, 110, 111, 112, AND 113...

The National Weather Service in El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa continues 
a Red Flag Warning, which is in effect from noon to 8 PM MDT 
Tuesday.

* AFFECTED AREAS...NM fire weather zones 110...111...112 and 113.
  TX fire zones 055 and 056.

* WIND...West to southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph
  or more expected. 

* HUMIDITY...Around 10 %.

* NOTE PERIODS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY EACH 
  DAY THROUGH THURSDAY THIS WEEK.

* IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly.
  Outdoor burning is not recommended. Be careful if you have to
  operate gas or electrical powered machinery outside.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$
Tripoli

259 
WWUS84 KEPZ 161247
RFWEPZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
647 AM MDT Tue May 16 2017

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO MOST 
OF THIS WEEK...

.A series of moderate to strong upper level troughs will move 
through the Central and Southern Rockies affecting New Mexico most
of this week. The result will be periods of strong gusty dry 
surface winds bringing critical fire weather conditions with winds
of 25 to 35 mph and humidities less than 15%. Gusts to 50 mph or 
more expected as well. Relative humidities will be marginal in the
higher elevations with locations above 7000 feet possibly
remaining in the 15 to 20 percent range. 

NMZ110>113-TXZ055-056-170200-
/O.CON.KEPZ.FW.W.0019.170516T1800Z-170517T0200Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 110 
 SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 111 
 SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 
 SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 113 
 CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ-
TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 055 
 EL PASO COUNTY-TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 056 
 HUDSPETH COUNTY-
647 AM MDT Tue May 16 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT
THIS EVENING FOR SUSTAINED FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 055, 056, 110, 111, 112, AND
113...

* AFFECTED AREAS...NM fire weather zones 110...111...112 and 
  113. TX fire zones 055 and 056. 

* WIND...West to southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 50 
  mph or more expected. 

* HUMIDITY...10 to 15 percent.

* NOTE PERIODS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY EACH 
  DAY THROUGH THURSDAY THIS WEEK.

* IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended. Be careful if you have to 
  operate gas or electrical powered machinery outside.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$
26

568 
WWUS84 KEPZ 161959
RFWEPZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
159 PM MDT Tue May 16 2017

...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO 
MOST OF THIS WEEK...

.A series of moderate to strong upper level troughs will move
through the Central and Southern Rockies affecting New Mexico
most of this week. The result will be periods of strong gusty dry
surface winds bringing critical fire weather conditions with
winds of 25 to 35 mph and humidities less than 15% over some areas
of the lowlands, mainly west Texas and the bootheel region of NM.
Gusts to 45 mph or more expected as well.


NMZ110-113-162100-
/O.CAN.KEPZ.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-170517T0200Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 110 
 SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 113 
 CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ-
159 PM MDT Tue May 16 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SUSTAINED FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 055, 056, 110,
111, 112, AND 113...

The National Weather Service in El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa has
cancelled the Red Flag Warning. 

Relative humidities in the mountains will remain well above 15
percent, so the Red Flag Warning has been cancelled. 

$$

NMZ111-112-TXZ055-056-170200-
/O.CON.KEPZ.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-170517T0200Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 111 
 SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 
 SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ-
TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 055 
 EL PASO COUNTY-TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 056 
 HUDSPETH COUNTY-
159 PM MDT Tue May 16 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR SUSTAINED FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 055, 056, 110, 111, 112, AND 113...

* AFFECTED AREAS...NM fire weather zones 111 and 112. TX fire 
  zones 055 and 056. 

* WIND...West to southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 
  mph or more expected.

* HUMIDITY...10 to 15 percent mainly west of Rio Grande and 
  far west Texas.

* NOTE PERIODS OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY 
  EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY THIS WEEK.

* IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended. Be careful if you have to 
  operate gas or electrical powered machinery outside.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$
26

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
338 AM MDT Mon May 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level disturbances will bring windy mostly dry conditions
to much of southern New Mexico and west Texas today through
Thursday with the strongest winds occurring Tuesday afternoon and
early evening. A passing cold front will also cause cooler below
normal temperatures on Tuesday. Easterly winds behind a cold front
will result in a few showers and thunderstorms next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rather active period of weather expected over the next seven days.
Unseasonably deep upper low and associated trough axis was moving
into southern California early this morning with deep
southwesterly flow ahead of it advecting more warm dry air into
southern New Mexico and west Texas. Approach of system will also
induce lee cyclogenesis over eastern Colorado with low and mid
level gradients strengthening. Thus expect breezy to marginally
windy conditions today.

The upper trough with an attendant Pacific cold front will
accelerate eastward across the CWA on Tuesday with another lee
cyclone and trailing surface trough developing/deepening along the
front range. This pattern will further tighten gradients while
dry lapse rates will be from the surface to about 550 mb allowing
stronger flow aloft to mix downward. These factors indicate most
or even all of the CWA will have wind speeds of at least advisory
levels Tuesday afternoon with winds possibly exceeding warning
criteria over a few areas..especially along eastern facing slopes.
And despite a lack of moisture dynamic lift and cooling aloft may
induce isolated storms over the Gila Wilderness. Finally cool air
advection behind the front will lower Tuesday high temperatures
to about 10 degrees below normal.

A second unseasonably deep upper low will be entering Utah on
Wednesday with another surface lee cyclone developing over
Colorado and trailing trough extending into eastern New Mexico.
By Thursday upper low will be moving into Colorado with primary
upper trough sweeping into New Mexico while surface low reforms
over the Texas panhandle. This scenario should sustain marginally
windy conditions over much of the CWA both Wednesday and Thursday.

Late Friday a cold front will move east to west across New Mexico
and west Texas with the easterly flow behind the boundary
advecting moisture into the region. Surface dewpoints thus rise
above 40 F making the air mass weakly unstable and this will
support a few thunderstorms next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...valid 15/12z-16/12z.
VFR conditions with areas of ceilings above 10,000 feet agl.
Surface winds gusting around 40 kt between 20z and 03z with areas
of moderate or greater turbulance below 15,000 feet agl.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper level disturbances will bring windy mostly dry conditions
to much of southern New Mexico and west Texas today through
Thursday with the strongest winds occurring Tuesday afternoon and
early evening. Thus Red Flag critical fire weather conditions are
expected across much or all of the region during the afternoon and
early evening hours today through Thursday. A passing cold front
will also cause cooler below normal temperatures on Tuesday.
Easterly winds behind another cold front will result in a few
showers and thunderstorms next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 89  63  82  55 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           90  60  82  52 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              85  54  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              86  58  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              64  38  54  34 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   84  54  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             76  46  66  40 /   0   0  10   0
Deming                  85  51  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               83  49  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      88  61  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               91  59  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            93  62  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              84  58  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  91  62  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            88  59  80  51 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          86  59  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           85  53  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   86  53  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                86  55  80  48 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               87  59  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 75  47  65  39 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               73  46  64  39 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                73  45  63  38 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 76  41  67  37 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               81  48  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               85  52  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            75  38  65  33 /   0   0  10   0
Hurley                  78  46  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   82  45  72  38 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              78  45  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 79  47  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  83  50  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 84  49  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          83  49  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              77  48  70  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for NMZ110>113.

     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM MDT this
     evening for NMZ110>113.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for TXZ055-056.

&&

05 Rogash

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
405 AM MDT Mon May 15 2017

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-161315-
Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila
Highlands/Black Range-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Eastern Black
Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes-Northern Dona Ana County-
Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Central Tularosa Basin-
Southern Tularosa Basin-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500
Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-East Slopes Sacramento
Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-Western El Paso County-
Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco
Mountains-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands-Rio Grande Valley
of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of
Eastern Hudspeth County-
405 AM MDT Mon May 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Breezy to windy with winds gusting around 40 mph this afternoon.
Critical fire weather conditions expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Windy on Tuesday with winds gusting around 50 to 60 mph. Blowing
dust will reduce the visibility to under 2 miles over a few
locations resulting in hazardous driving conditions. Critical fire
weather conditions likely.

Very isolated thunderstorms may develop over the Gila Wilderness
with dry lightning possible.

Windy Wednesday and Thursday with winds gusting around 40 mph in the
afternoon.

A few showers and thunderstorms possible Sunday with brief heavy
rains and wind gusts to 50 mph possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed.

Rogash