Red Flag Warning 14, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
350 AM MDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
As our wind storm from Tuesday exits the area, we will see a
couple more storms move in over the several days. Today may be the
only quiet day looking through the weekend, as winds will be
relatively light. Temperatures will cool to near normal behind
yesterday's cold front. Thursday will begin the spring wind cycle
again as a weak upper impulse moves through the area. This feature
will still be strong enough to bring strong winds back to the
area. Then on Friday and Saturday, an upper low will drop down
from the northern Rockies to New Mexico. This will produce strong
winds on Friday, along with some mountain showers. The winds will
drop some on Saturday, with a few mountain showers and high
elevation snow. Cooler air will also move in, dropping Saturday
and Sunday's temperatures well below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Looks like today is a day to catch our breath before falling back
into a windy spring pattern. The upper low which brought the
strong winds to the area yesterday is now over far NE New Mexico,
on its way to the Texas Panhandle later this morning. Clouds are
quickly dissolving behind the surface front, which is to our east
now. Should be plenty of sunshine today, but temperatures will
cool a few degrees back to near normal.

Thursday...a small disturbance will pass through the area. Not
much moisture other than some higher clouds, but this feature will
ramp winds back up to advisory level, or even low end warning.
Will let next shift take a look at the morning model runs and
decide on statements.

Friday through Sunday...Thursday's disturbance will have exited,
but a strong upper low forming over the northern Rockies will
rapidly drop down to our area, located around the Four Corners
region Friday evening and then over northern New Mexico Saturday
morning. This will, you guessed it, ramp winds up again for
Friday. Looks like at least advisory level again. System could
produce some showers, mainly over the mountains. Decent cold
advection aloft on Friday and then much stronger cold advection on
Saturday will destabilize the airmass enough to warrant some
thunderstorm wording in the forecast. Pacific cold front moves
through Friday night, cooling temperatures noticeably for
Saturday. Backdoor cold front then pushes through Saturday night
to keep Sunday on the cool side. Snow levels should remain above
most inhabitable places, but did drop snow levels to 8000 ft over
the Gila/Black Range Friday night-a bit higher at 9000 ft over the
Sac Mountains. Snow levels over the Sacs will drop much lower
Saturday night with the back door front, but the showers should be
ending, so no significant snow is likely at this time.

Monday and Tuesday...somewhat tamer weather in store as upper low
exits the area and dry west flow sets up. Afternoons, especially
Tuesday could still see some breezy winds though. Temperatures
will warm back up above normal.

Wednesday and Thursday...beyond forecast period but GFS showing
large upper low cutting off just south of Arizona. This would be a
good rain maker for the area. However, big IF, as GFS ensemble
showing poor consistency, and ECMWF continues to weak, broad high
over the Desert Southwest.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 26/12Z-27/12Z...
Genly VFR with mostly SKC-SCT250. Through 16Z SCT120 SCT250 will
slowly fade away. Winds will be W/NW 12-17 kts through 15Z this
morning and then decrease. After 18Z winds will pick up some at
West at 10-15 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT THURSDAY FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...

Breezy to windy conditions will continue through the next 5-7 days
with the strongest winds coming on Thursday and Friday. Critical
fire conditions could be met Thursday, but higher min RH's on
Friday means Red Flag conditions may fall just short.

An upper low will be moving across the Rockies Friday night and
Saturday which could bring some showers and a few thunderstorms to
the mountain zones. Some light snow is possible, mainly above 8000
ft. Dry northwest flow will redevelop behind this system with
temperatures rebounding early next week. While breezy conditions
will continue, winds look to remain just below critical speeds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 80  59  89  68 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           79  55  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              78  51  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              77  52  87  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              54  35  64  40 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   78  53  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             67  45  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  79  48  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               77  48  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      79  59  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               79  49  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            82  55  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              72  53  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  81  57  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            79  54  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          78  57  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           78  47  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   81  48  89  51 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                79  54  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               80  55  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 63  38  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               62  37  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                61  36  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 70  35  77  40 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               76  44  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               79  46  88  49 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            74  29  76  35 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  70  41  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   73  37  82  39 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              72  34  79  39 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 76  44  80  48 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  80  48  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 79  46  86  50 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          80  49  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              74  47  80  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for NMZ110>112.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for TXZ055-056.

&&

17 Hefner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
406 AM MDT Wed Apr 26 2017

NMZ401-404>407-409>413-417-TXZ418>424-271215-
Upper Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-
Lowlands of the Bootheel-Uplands of the Bootheel-
Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Sierra County Lakes-
Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin-Otero Mesa-
Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County-
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-
406 AM MDT Wed Apr 26 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Strong winds Thursday and Friday afternoon, with areas of blowing
dust. Visibilities could become quite low, especially in the dust
prone areas such as I-10 west of Las Cruces and other roads of
Luna and Hidalgo Counties.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NMZ402-403-408-414>416-271215-
Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
406 AM MDT Wed Apr 26 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
New Mexico and southwest New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Strong winds Thursday and Friday afternoon, with patchy blowing
dust where soil has been disturbed. A few thunderstorms are
possible each day, and some light snow may fall Friday night and
Saturday night at elevations above 8000 ft.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Hefner