Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS El Paso, TX

892 
WGUS74 KEPZ 021043
FFSEPZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
443 AM MDT WED AUG 2 2017

NMC017-023-029-021051-
/O.EXP.KEPZ.FF.W.0037.000000T0000Z-170802T1045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Grant NM-Luna NM-Hidalgo NM-
443 AM MDT WED AUG 2 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL GRANT...SOUTHERN LUNA
AND SOUTHEASTERN HIDALGO COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 445 AM MDT...

The heavy rain has ended. Flash flooding is no longer expected to 
pose a threat. Motorists on State Highway 9 should still be careful 
of water lingering in area low water crossings and water that is 
ponded on the roads and sides of the roads.
.

LAT...LON 3199 10730 3178 10730 3178 10821 3177 10821
      3177 10839 3197 10840

$$

TSB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
311 PM MDT Tue Aug 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air was beginning to move into the region and this will help
reduce our rain chances for Wednesday and Thursday. For Friday and
into the weekend we will see more moisture and higher rain chances
back in the forecast. For the first of next week, we will
continue to see a chance for rain. Our high temperatures over the
next seven days will be near or a little below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
After many locations saw half an inch of rain or more in the last
24 hours, we are seeing less activity today than yesterday and it
looks like we will see even less coverage of thunderstorms on
Wednesday and Thursday. Currently an the upper level ridge is
settled over Nevada and the circulation around the high was
beginning to push the deeper moisture into Arizona and in its
place drier air was moving in. We will still see a chance for
thunderstorms tonight, but the best chances for rain will be west
of the Continental Divide. On Wednesday and Thursday we will only
see isolated thunderstorms. Both the GFS and NAM remove all the
rain chances from the forecast, but considering we are in the
heart of monsoon season I went ahead and left a mention of a
slight chance for rain both days.

On Friday another front from the east will push into the region.
Previous model runs had the front generating a lot of
precipitation, but the current run of the GFS has backed off some
what on that solution. The ECMWF is still pretty bullish on our
rain chances though. The forecast for the weekend will be similar
to Friday's forecast with isolated lowland and scattered mountain
thunderstorms each day. For the first of next week, both the GFS
and ECMWF show that the Bermuda high to our east will help push
moisture back into the region from the south. The current run of
the GFS has some pretty high atmospheric moisture values and that
could lead to a fresh round of heavy rains and flash flooding.
Temperatures over the next seven days will continue to run at or
a few degrees below average.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 02/00Z-03/00Z...ISOLD MTN TSRAGS/WND
VRB25G45KT/CIGS 060-100 MSL/VSBY 2-4 SM THRU 02Z.  ISOLD lowland
TSRAGS/WND VRB30G50KT/CIGS 100-140 MSL/VSBY 2-4 SM THRU 04Z. SCT
activity expected for the NM bootheel through 06Z.  Sky FEW-SCT070-
110 SCT150-190 SCT300-400 outside storms. Circulation around high
pressure aloft over the great basin...will continue to slowly drive
storms north to south over southern New overnight and
Wednesday...while transporting relatively drier continental air over
the region starting later this evening.  This will restrict storm
coverage to mainly over higher elevations in the Gila region...
Sacramento Mtns and NM bootheel on Wed....where ISOLD-SCT TSRAGS/WND
VRB35G55KT/CIGS 060-100 MSL/VSBY 2-4SM are expected 18Z - end of pd.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The rest of this afternoon will be a bit more on the quiet side
compared to yesterday with storm activity...as relatively drier
continental air moves in from the northeast Wednesday afternoon and
reduces NM and far west TX storm coverage Thursday.  Scattered to
numerous storms could return starting Friday...as another back door
cold frontal boundary remains forecast to move in Thursday evening.
Flash flooding and high winds remain the main threats with storms
through the work week. Circulation around building high pressure
aloft over the great basin...will slowly drive storms from north to
south. This pattern will exacerbate the wind threat particularly for
the Rio Grande valley and Tularosa basin especially late day/early
evng...where channeling from terrain effects could further
strengthen outflow winds.

Little change with min RH trends is expected...except for northern
zones on Wednesday...where values will roughly 10-20 percent.
Thursday will see values fall another 5-10 percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 71  91  70  93 /  20  10  20   0
Sierra Blanca           68  87  66  88 /  30  10  10   0
Las Cruces              69  89  67  91 /  30  10  20  10
Alamogordo              68  89  66  90 /  20  10  20  10
Cloudcroft              51  69  50  69 /  20  10  20  20
Truth or Consequences   68  90  67  91 /  20  10  20  20
Silver City             63  84  61  84 /  30  40  20  30
Deming                  69  90  66  91 /  40  10  20  20
Lordsburg               69  90  67  90 /  50  40  20  30
West El Paso Metro      71  90  69  92 /  30  10  20   0
Dell City               69  90  66  91 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Hancock            72  91  70  92 /  30  10  20   0
Loma Linda              65  84  64  85 /  20  10  20  10
Fabens                  72  91  70  92 /  30  10  20   0
Santa Teresa            70  90  69  92 /  30  10  20   0
White Sands HQ          70  90  68  91 /  20  10  20  10
Jornada Range           68  90  66  91 /  20  10  20  10
Hatch                   68  92  67  93 /  20  10  20  20
Columbus                70  90  68  91 /  50  10  20   0
Orogrande               70  90  67  92 /  20  10  20  10
Mayhill                 56  77  54  79 /  20  10  20  20
Mescalero               56  78  55  79 /  20  10  20  20
Timberon                56  76  55  77 /  20  10  20  20
Winston                 60  84  59  84 /  30  10  20  30
Hillsboro               65  88  64  88 /  30  10  20  30
Spaceport               67  90  66  91 /  20  10  10  20
Lake Roberts            59  83  57  83 /  30  30  20  30
Hurley                  64  85  62  86 /  30  30  20  30
Cliff                   65  90  63  90 /  40  40  20  30
Mule Creek              65  87  64  87 /  50  40  20  40
Faywood                 64  86  62  87 /  30  20  20  30
Animas                  69  89  67  89 /  40  40  20  30
Hachita                 67  89  66  90 /  50  30  20  20
Antelope Wells          67  89  66  88 /  50  20  20  30
Cloverdale              66  85  64  84 /  50  50  20  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

Brice/Tripoli