Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
329 PM MDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The Borderland should see a brief intermission from the heavy
rain and flooding of the recent pass. An upper high centered over
the southern Plains is bringing some drier air in aloft. However,
moisture near the surface will persist, allowing isolated
thunderstorms each day through Monday. By Tuesday and Wednesday,
the upper high moves back over Nevada, with the resultant north
flow bringing more moisture into the area. Expect Tuesday and
Wednesday to be more active again with thunderstorms and flash
flood potential.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A rather quiet day today after several busy days. Upper high now
over north Texas and Oklahoma, with southeast flow over our CWA.
Drier air which began moving in yesterday is now fully in place
over the area. However, low level moisture has not been displaced,
with dewpoints still in the 50s. Initial convection today was
strictly orographic and even as of press time just a few cells
were beginning to form over the lowlands. GOES PW shows readings
of about 1.2 inches in the NM Bootheel, to .9 inches over the Sac
Mtns. Expect a brief ramp down of thunderstorm activity Saturday
through Monday. Upper high begins moving over to the Texas
Panhandle and then over New Mexico by Monday. This will keep dry
air aloft around and also provide some weak capping. Still expect
isolated thunderstorms each day, with best chances being north and
west of Las Cruces. Don't expect much in the way of flood
potential, except maybe in the far west, where PWs will remain
around 1.4 inches (compared to around 1.0 inch in the east).

Tuesday and Wednesday...Upper high over New Mexico begins
consolidating with upper high over Nevada, with this one then
becoming the dominant high. The resultant north flow will bring
down recycled moisture, with PWs climbing back to 1.3 to 1.5
inches. Weak backdoor front also moves in Tuesday night, for a
slight increase in low level moisture and possible focusing
mechanism. The moisture looks to be evenly distributed so POPs
going back into scattered/numerous area wide. With the higher PWs,
combined with slow storm speed, flood potential will also return.

Thursday and Friday...Recycled moisture finally begins thinning
out with persistent north flow. Expect to ramp back down to
isolated thunderstorm coverage. PWs fall to around 1.0 to 1.2
inches Thursday and from 0.8 to 1.0 inch on Friday. This should
limit convection to isolated and mostly over the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 29/00Z-30/00Z...
Thanks to drier air moving into the area, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals thru the period. Expect P6SM FEW-SCT070-090
with a period of VCTS SCT070CB thru 06Z and again after 21Z. In
general winds will remain AOB 12 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
With the arrival of drier air over the eastern half of the area, the
overall coverage of wetting precip will be diminish through the
weekend. There will still be a few isolated to scattered storms each
afternoon, primarily over higher terrain and far western zones where
locally heavy rainfall and gusty outflow winds will remain possible.
An additional influx of moisture from the north will provide for
better coverage of wetting precip for several days next week. Temps
will be a a bit above normal this weekend and then a bit below
normal later next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 73  96  74  95 /  10   0  10   0
Sierra Blanca           69  94  70  93 /  10   0  10   0
Las Cruces              68  94  69  93 /  20   0  10   0
Alamogordo              68  95  70  95 /  10  10  10  10
Cloudcroft              49  71  51  72 /  10  10  10  20
Truth or Consequences   68  94  69  93 /  20  10  20  10
Silver City             60  88  61  86 /  30  30  30  20
Deming                  67  94  68  91 /  20   0  20  10
Lordsburg               67  91  67  89 /  30  20  40  20
West El Paso Metro      73  95  73  94 /  20   0  10   0
Dell City               71  97  71  96 /  10   0  10   0
Fort Hancock            73  96  75  95 /  10   0  10   0
Loma Linda              67  93  67  92 /  10   0  10   0
Fabens                  73  96  73  95 /  10   0  10   0
Santa Teresa            70  95  71  94 /  20   0  10   0
White Sands HQ          70  95  71  94 /  20   0  10   0
Jornada Range           68  96  69  94 /  20   0  10   0
Hatch                   68  96  69  95 /  20   0  20  10
Columbus                68  93  69  92 /  20   0  20  10
Orogrande               71  97  72  96 /  10   0  10   0
Mayhill                 55  83  55  83 /  10  10  10  20
Mescalero               55  83  56  83 /  10  10  10  20
Timberon                55  82  55  82 /  10  10  10  20
Winston                 58  88  59  86 /  30  30  30  20
Hillsboro               64  93  64  91 /  30  30  20  20
Spaceport               67  95  68  93 /  20  10  10  10
Lake Roberts            56  86  56  84 /  30  30  40  20
Hurley                  61  90  61  87 /  30  30  30  20
Cliff                   62  91  63  89 /  40  30  30  20
Mule Creek              63  90  63  88 /  40  30  50  20
Faywood                 62  91  63  89 /  30  30  30  20
Animas                  66  90  67  89 /  40  20  50  10
Hachita                 65  91  66  90 /  30  10  40  10
Antelope Wells          65  90  65  88 /  40  10  50  10
Cloverdale              63  87  62  85 /  50  20  60  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hefner/Laney

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
125 PM MDT Fri Jul 28 2017

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-291930-
Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes-
Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-
Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County-
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-
125 PM MDT Fri Jul 28 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms, mainly until midnight. A few storms could
produce brief heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. Some
thunderstorms could produce heavy rainfall and local flooding.
Isolated thunderstorms the remainder of the period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Hefner