Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
318 AM MDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm moist unstable air will continue to flow into southern New
Mexico ands west Texas into next week resulting in areas of
showers and thunderstorms each day. Locally heavy rains will be
possible along with strong gusty winds and even small hail.
Temperatures will remain near normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Small area of deep convection persisting across the CWA early this
morning due to outflow boundary and/or weak upper wave.

Monsoon pattern will persist at low levels as broad thermal
trough west of the divide will combine with high pressure across
south Texas to sustain mostly southeast to southwest low level
winds with inflow o Gulf of Mexico and/or Gulf of California
moisture. Surface dewpoints will be around 55 to 60 today
supporting precipitable water values from 1.1 inch east to 1.5
inch west. Warm afternoon temperatures in conjunction with low
level moisture will again destabilize air mass with late afternoon
CAPEs around 800 to 1600 J/kg. Surface heating and upslope winds
will generate initial storms with outflow boundaries sustaining
and even increasing areal coverage late afternoon and evening. In
addition surface trough associated with dissipating front will
move into the region from the north late this afternoon and this
evening with low level convergence further inducing updrafts.
Heavy rainfall ands flooding will be primary hazard but DCAPEs
above 1000 J/kg suggest threat of wet microbursts as well.

Broad east to west oriented upper ridge axis will extend across
New Mexico Friday through early Monday with resultant circulation
advecting warmer drier continental air at mid levels into the CWA
from the east/northeast. Thus for the Friday through Monday period
drier more stable conditions will exist mainly east of the Rio
Grand with dewpoints falling into the mid 40s to lower 50s and
CAPE's mostly less than 500 J/kg. To the west conditions will be
more moist and unstable with precipitable water around 1.3 inches
and CAPE's mostly from 500 to 1000 J/kg. So expect mainly
scattered storm coverage western zones with isolated storms east
during this time.

Longer range models and ensembles/superblend advect deeper
moisture back into the CWA Tuesday through Thursday with
precipitable water rising to 1.3 to 1.5 inches and supporting
CAPE's around 1000 J/kg. This indicates threat of more widespread
heavy rains and flooding may increase later periods.

&&

.AVIATION...valid 27/12z-28/12z.
Scattered areas of MVFR ceilings and visibility with isolated IFR
conditions in showers and thunderstorms with most activity from
20z to 06z. A few storms may produce wind gusts to 50 kt.
Otherwise VFR conditions with SCT-BKN050-100 and surface wind
speeds around 5 to 15 kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm moist unstable air will continue to flow into southern New
Mexico ands west Texas into next week resulting in areas of
showers and thunderstorms each day. Locally heavy rains will be
possible along with strong gusty winds and even small hail.
Temperatures will remain near normal.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 95  73  97  73 /  20  30  10  10
Sierra Blanca           94  69  95  70 /  10  20   0   0
Las Cruces              93  69  94  69 /  30  40  20  20
Alamogordo              92  69  95  69 /  30  40  20  10
Cloudcroft              72  54  73  54 /  60  60  20  10
Truth or Consequences   94  69  94  69 /  30  50  20  20
Silver City             87  63  85  61 /  40  60  40  30
Deming                  94  68  93  68 /  30  50  20  20
Lordsburg               93  69  91  68 /  30  50  30  30
West El Paso Metro      94  73  96  73 /  20  30  10  20
Dell City               97  70  99  71 /  10  20   0   0
Fort Hancock            96  74  98  73 /  20  20  10   0
Loma Linda              88  68  91  68 /  20  30  10  10
Fabens                  95  73  98  73 /  20  30  10  10
Santa Teresa            94  71  96  71 /  30  40  20  20
White Sands HQ          93  70  95  71 /  30  40  20  20
Jornada Range           93  68  95  69 /  30  50  20  20
Hatch                   96  69  96  69 /  30  50  20  20
Columbus                94  69  94  69 /  30  50  20  20
Orogrande               94  71  96  72 /  30  30  10  10
Mayhill                 81  58  82  58 /  60  60  20  10
Mescalero               81  58  82  58 /  60  60  20  10
Timberon                79  58  81  58 /  60  60  20  10
Winston                 86  60  86  59 /  60  60  40  40
Hillsboro               91  65  91  65 /  60  60  40  40
Spaceport               94  68  95  68 /  30  50  20  20
Lake Roberts            87  59  84  57 /  60  60  50  40
Hurley                  89  63  87  62 /  30  50  30  30
Cliff                   92  65  91  63 /  50  60  40  40
Mule Creek              89  65  87  64 /  40  50  40  40
Faywood                 89  64  89  63 /  30  60  30  30
Animas                  92  68  91  67 /  40  60  40  40
Hachita                 93  67  92  66 /  40  50  30  30
Antelope Wells          92  67  90  66 /  40  60  40  50
Cloverdale              87  64  86  64 /  40  60  50  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

05 Rogash

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1117 AM MDT Thu Jul 27 2017

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-281730-
Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes-
Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-
Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County-
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-
1117 AM MDT Thu Jul 27 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms. Heavy rain and flooding will be the main
threat. Pea size hail and wind gusts to 50 mph also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Mostly isolated thunderstorms Friday through Monday. Thunderstorm
coverage increasing Tuesday and Wednesday, with a corresponding
increase in flood potential.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Hefner