Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS El Paso, TX

285 
WGUS74 KEPZ 252210
FFSEPZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
410 PM MDT TUE JUL 25 2017

NMC051-252219-
/O.EXP.KEPZ.FF.W.0024.000000T0000Z-170725T2215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Sierra NM-
410 PM MDT TUE JUL 25 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN SIERRA COUNTY WILL EXPIRE
AT 415 PM MDT...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3344 10749 3340 10745 3340 10749 3341 10754
      3344 10757

$$

TRIPOLI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
319 AM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist unstable air will flow into southern New Mexico and west
Texas through early next week. Thus there will be chances for
showers and thunderstorms each day with heavy rain falling over a
few areas. Temperatures will remain seasonably warm.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Low level monsoonal pattern will remain in place with broad
heat/thermal low covering most of the western United States and
high pressure to the east. This pattern will sustain a mostly
southeast to southwest flow with transport of abundant moisture
from the Gulf of Mexico and/or Gulf of California. Consequently
surface dewpoints should remain mostly in the lower 50s to lower
60s each day across the lowlands most of the next seven days.

Aloft an east to west oriented upper ridge axis will extend across
the CWA today and Wednesday with axis shifting slowly north
Thursday through Saturday. As ridge moves north inflow of drier
continental air aloft will occur from the northeast. Precipitable
water will therefore diminish somewhat from around 1.5 inches
today and Wednesday to around 1 to 1.3 inches east to west by
Friday.

Combination of heating and low level moisture will support an
unstable air mass with afternoon CAPE's around 1000 J/kg today
through Thursday. Thus expect surface warming and upslope flow to
initiate early afternoon storms with subsequent outflow
boundaries causing activity to persist and increase into the
evening. Inflow of warmer drier air aloft may cause some decrease
in storm coverage eastern areas on Friday through Sunday but
deeper moisture /greater instability will allow more extensive
activity in the west. By next Monday deeper moisture should return
to the east as well. Slow storm movement and abundant moisture
indicate primary hazard threat will remain heavy rains and flash
flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...valid 25/12z-26/12z.
Scattered areas of MVFR and isolated areas of IFR ceilings and
visibility in showers and thunderstorms mainly from 20z to 06z.
Otherwise mostly vfr conditions with SCT-BKN050-100 and surface
wind speeds around 5 to 15 kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moist unstable air will flow into southern New Mexico and west
Texas through early next week. Thus there will be chances for
showers and thunderstorms each day with heavy rain falling over a
few areas. Temperatures will remain seasonably warm and surface
winds will be mostly from 5 to 15 mph except for stronger gusts
near storms. Widespread wetting rains should keep fire danger
mostly low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 94  73  96  74 /  20  30  20  30
Sierra Blanca           91  69  92  70 /  20  20  20  20
Las Cruces              93  69  95  70 /  20  30  20  30
Alamogordo              92  70  94  70 /  20  30  20  30
Cloudcroft              70  52  72  55 /  70  30  50  40
Truth or Consequences   92  69  94  71 /  30  30  20  30
Silver City             87  63  89  65 /  50  30  30  40
Deming                  91  69  95  70 /  30  30  20  30
Lordsburg               90  69  93  70 /  30  30  20  30
West El Paso Metro      93  72  95  74 /  20  30  20  30
Dell City               94  72  97  71 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Hancock            94  74  96  74 /  20  30  20  20
Loma Linda              89  69  90  69 /  20  30  20  30
Fabens                  94  73  96  74 /  20  30  20  30
Santa Teresa            93  71  95  73 /  20  30  20  40
White Sands HQ          92  70  95  71 /  20  30  20  30
Jornada Range           92  69  95  69 /  20  30  20  30
Hatch                   94  69  97  70 /  20  30  20  40
Columbus                92  70  95  71 /  20  30  20  40
Orogrande               92  72  94  72 /  20  30  20  30
Mayhill                 81  57  82  58 /  70  30  50  40
Mescalero               81  58  82  59 /  70  30  50  40
Timberon                80  58  80  59 /  50  30  50  40
Winston                 86  61  88  62 /  50  30  40  50
Hillsboro               91  66  93  67 /  40  30  30  50
Spaceport               92  68  95  69 /  20  30  20  30
Lake Roberts            85  58  88  59 /  50  30  40  50
Hurley                  88  64  91  65 /  40  30  30  30
Cliff                   90  61  92  66 /  40  30  30  40
Mule Creek              89  61  91  66 /  40  30  30  30
Faywood                 89  64  91  65 /  40  30  40  40
Animas                  90  69  93  70 /  40  30  20  30
Hachita                 90  67  93  69 /  30  30  20  30
Antelope Wells          89  67  92  67 /  40  30  30  30
Cloverdale              87  65  89  64 /  30  30  40  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

05 Rogash

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1126 AM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-261730-
Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes-
Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-
Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County-
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-
1126 AM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight
We will continue to see a chance for afternoon and evening
thunderstorms today. A few storms may produce rainfall rates of 1
to 3 inches of rain an hour, which could lead to some isolated
flash

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday
We will continue to see a chance for afternoon and evening
thunderstorms through the first part of next week. We could see
some lower rain chances for locations east of the Rio Grande by
the end of the weekend into the first part of next week. But the
threat for isolated flash flooding will continue west of the Rio
Grande.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters can report significant weather via our spotter 800 number
or via Twitter using our office username @NWSElPaso.