Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
646 PM CDT Tue May 30 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2017

Currently watching an area of congested cumulus trying to develop
near Topeka, which appears to be forming at the leading edge of a
moist tongue coming out of central KS. It's possible that a few
showers or storms could develop out of this activity and spread
into western MO over the next few hours, but a relatively dry
low-level airmass should keep instability rather low (1000 J/kg or
less) and cloud bases high. This should cut back on the potential
for organized strong storms, although deep layer shear values
around 40 to 50 kts could support some strong updrafts capable of
gusty downburst winds and perhaps some small hail. The potential
for these gusts to exceed 50 mph appears pretty low given the weak
instability.

A weak frontal boundary entering northern MO will stall near the
Missouri River tonight and move just slightly back north on
Wednesday. This feature will likely set the stage for more
organized thunderstorm development tomorrow evening as a weak
impulse moves in from the west. If storms move in early enough
while the airmass is still diurnally unstable, the combo of modest
instability and shear and the presence of the low level boundary
could support a few strong or severe storms with large hail and
damaging winds into Wednesday night, mainly along and just south
of the boundary which will be roughly from St. Joseph to Moberly.

Weak ridging will build in Thursday and will bring an end to
precipitation chances at least temporarily Thursday and Thursday
night. However a quick transition to quasi-zonal upper flow will
bring thunderstorm chances back to the region Friday and Friday
night, and last off-and-on into early next week. Most of these
rain chances will be instability driven in a weakly forced late
spring/early summer environment, so as of now there are no strong
signals of organized severe storms or heavy rain during this
period.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2017

Ongoing storms across southern portions of the KC Metro will begin
to wave off over the next few hrs with loss of instability. Before
this occurs, IXD stands the best chance of seeing impacts with
temporary MVFR and IFR conditions possible. Elsewhere, VFR
conditions to dominate through much of the fcst period with the
next chance for shwrs/storms arriving late tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...32

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
450 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-311000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
450 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Strong to isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon and
 evening, mainly across a line extending from eastern Kansas to
 central and southern Missouri. Activity will be spotty and brief,
 though strong winds and large hail are possible within any storms
 which may develop.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

 Additional strong storms are possible Wednesday afternoon across
 eastern Kansas and west central Missouri. Hazards will include once
 again the potential for strong winds and isolated large hail. The
 active pattern will persist into the late week with multiple rounds
 of showers and thunderstorms expected.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

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