Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
552 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 206 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

The potential for widespread severe weather this afternoon and
evening continues to increase as short-term trends come into higher
resolution. An MCS is currently advancing eastward across south
central Nebraska and north central Kansas as of early Saturday
morning. This activity will undergo only slight weakening as it
approaches northwest Missouri by the mid-morning. The cold pool
generated from the MCS may play a critical role in the development
of anticipated severe weather this afternoon. As the MCS crosses
into northwest Missouri, a surface low will lift northeastward into
eastern Kansas by the mid-afternoon, bringing with it a highly
unstable airmass up against the I-70 corridor. Surface dewpoint
values will increase into the upper 60s to lower 70s over areas
south of the Missouri River. Meanwhile, a mid-level shortwave will
eject out of an upper-level trough situated over the Northern and
Central Rockies, atop a primed low-level environment. This will
all equate to a highly favorable setup for robust convection by
the early afternoon into the evening, particularly for areas just
north of I-70, extending to points well south. The surface low
should be limited in its northeastward trek as the MCS-driven cold
pool pushes against it. This will in turn present strong surface
convergence within a highly unstable environment, as MUCAPE values
exceed 4000 J/kg along and south of the warm front. With ample
mid-level flow, 0-6 km shear values of 40+ knots will support
rotating updrafts. Also expecting backed surface winds in the
vicinity of the warm front and points south, thus increasing the
potential for a few tornadoes across central Missouri this
afternoon before the surface low surges southeastward. The
tornadic potential may be increased near the surface low, which
looks to position itself near west central to southwestern
Missouri Saturday afternoon/evening. Aside from the tornadic
potential, very large hail and damaging winds are possible as the
storm system advances from eastern Kansas and western Missouri
early this afternoon and steadily pushes southeastward by the
early evening into central Missouri. With the holiday weekend in
full swing, action plans will need to be considered no later than
Saturday morning, especially for those camping, who may be
unfamiliar with local storm shelters in the relevant areas.

By Sunday morning, steady northwesterly surface winds are expected
in the wake of the exiting storm system and dry conditions will be
maintained through the latter half of the holiday weekend.
Temperatures will remain steady at near-seasonal values through
much of the upcoming week. May see additional storm development by
the mid-week, though forcing will remain rather limited until the
late week. At that point, models point to the possibility of a
large region of moisture advection extending into the Northern
Plains as the upper jet migrates well north. Any overhead impulses
could trigger warm advection showers/storms, though a blocking
ridge pattern should limit widespread precipitation chances.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

Dry conditions will continue through the late morning to early
afternoon before thunderstorm activity approaches the terminals
from eastern Kansas. Gusty winds and marginally reduced
visibility is possible coincident with this activity, though
storms will quickly progress eastward by the late afternoon.
Surface winds will become northwesterly in the wake of the
activity and low level stratus will likely linger overnight. Could
see a brief period of MVFR ceilings before VFR conditions return
Sunday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
542 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-281045-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
542 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected today as a very
 unstable airmass develops over the region. Severe thunderstorm
 development is expected with all forms of severe weather possible.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

 No severe weather expected.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
755 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

KSZ103-104-MOZ028-271330-
Wyandotte KS-Leavenworth KS-Platte MO-
755 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WYANDOTTE...CENTRAL
LEAVENWORTH AND SOUTH CENTRAL PLATTE COUNTIES UNTIL 830 AM CDT...

At 755 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tonganoxie, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Leavenworth, Lansing, Bonner Springs, Parkville, Tonganoxie, Basehor,
Kansas City, Fairmount, Farley, Fort Leavenworth, Wolcott, Pomeroy,
Waldron, Stillings, Beverly, Beverly Hills, East Leavenworth, Jarbalo
and Piper.

This includes Interstate 435 between mile markers 15 and 27.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3921 9518 3941 9484 3917 9467 3904 9519
TIME...MOT...LOC 1255Z 242DEG 33KT 3913 9517

Cutter

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
830 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

MOZ021-028-029-271400-
Platte MO-Clinton MO-Clay MO-
830 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CLAY...SOUTHWESTERN
CLINTON AND SOUTHEASTERN PLATTE COUNTIES UNTIL 900 AM CDT...

At 829 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Weatherby Lake, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kansas City, Liberty, Gladstone, Lansing, Smithville, Kearney,
Parkville, Platte City, Weatherby Lake, Lake Waukomis, Trimble,
Ferrelview, Platte Woods, Farley, Mosby, Ridgely, Waldron, Kansas
City Intl Arpt, Hoover and East Leavenworth.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 in Missouri between mile markers 17 and 28.
 Interstate 29 between mile markers 6 and 19.
 Interstate 435 between mile markers 20 and 48.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3955 9446 3929 9428 3919 9477 3921 9478
      3921 9481 3924 9483 3925 9483 3927 9485
      3932 9488
TIME...MOT...LOC 1329Z 242DEG 36KT 3928 9474

Cutter

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
833 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

MOZ002-271400-
Nodaway MO-
833 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN NODAWAY COUNTY UNTIL
900 AM CDT...

At 833 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Maryville, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Maryville, Hopkins and Pickering.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4057 9463 4047 9463 4030 9491 4036 9501
      4057 9485
TIME...MOT...LOC 1333Z 220DEG 28KT 4038 9491

Cutter

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
906 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

MOZ021-022-029-030-271445-
Ray MO-Clinton MO-Caldwell MO-Clay MO-
906 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CLAY...EASTERN
CLINTON...NORTHWESTERN RAY AND WESTERN CALDWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 945 AM
CDT...

At 905 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lathrop, moving east at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Excelsior Springs, Cameron, Lawson, Lathrop, Polo, Holt, Crystal
Lakes, Kingston, Excelsior Estates, Woods Heights, Homestead, Turney,
Prathersville, Elmira and Knoxville.

This includes Interstate 35 in Missouri between mile markers 33 and
53.

LAT...LON 3941 9388 3932 9427 3947 9433 3947 9434
      3971 9444 3977 9407
TIME...MOT...LOC 1405Z 266DEG 24KT 3952 9430

Pietrycha

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
913 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

MOZ003>005-013-014-271500-
Daviess MO-De Kalb MO-Worth MO-Gentry MO-Harrison MO-
913 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WORTH...NORTHWESTERN DAVIESS...
GENTRY...HARRISON AND NORTHEASTERN DEKALB COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 AM
CDT...

At 913 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Albany, moving east at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bethany, Albany, Stanberry, King City, Grant City, Ridgeway,
Pattonsburg, Eagleville, New Hampton, Irena, Blythedale, Coffey,
Jameson, Darlington, Mcfall, Gentry, Worth, Allendale, Denver and
Hatfield.

This includes Interstate 35 in Missouri between mile markers 72 and
113.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3995 9451 4057 9460 4057 9391 4000 9390
TIME...MOT...LOC 1413Z 266DEG 24KT 4026 9441

Pietrycha