Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
224 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 215 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2017

Focus for todays forecast is on the next 24 hours as storms move
through the region, bringing a threat of severe weather and flooding
with them.

The big picture across the USA is dominated by a blocking pattern
with a notable --for our area-- cutoff low spinning over the Desert
Southwest. A down stream shortwave ridge across the Plains, in
combination with the cutoff low has resulted in southwest flow
across the southern and central portions of the Plains States,
which will carry a MCV from south central Kansas across our
section of Missouri this afternoon. Closer to home, a frontal
boundary has been wallowing around far northern Missouri for a day
or two now, and while it shifted north today under the influence
of southerly winds, it will eventually sink south later tonight as
the cutoff low begins to shift into the Plains. Ultimately, the
MCV and the frontal boundary, and or any effective boundary that
the MCV leaves behind, will likely be our focus areas for storms
this afternoon and overnight.

For the afternoon activity...we are watching a MCV heading northeast
at this time, which has helped develop a broken line of storms that
is moving northeast across eastern Kansas at this time. Storms north
of the Iowa border this afternoon are ongoing from the mornings
activity in Nebraska and Iowa, and are associated with a frontal
boundary in southern Iowa; but the approaching MCV has helped
connect both of these areas of convection with the broken line of
storms in northwest Missouri.

Main focus for severe weather early this afternoon is split between
the convection in north central to northeast Missouri --where Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 203 is-- and along the Kansas-Missouri state line.
Up north...the warm front in southern Iowa is helping enhance the
convection in the storms along the front. Much of this activity is
currently north of the boundary, though the activity in northwest
Missouri will be moving into an area with MLCAPE values of 1000-1500
J/KG with 40 to 50 knots of 0-6KM shear. Shear vector near parallel
to the frontal boundary point at strong gusty winds and large hail as
the main threats, though any backing of surface winds ahead of the
MCV might help generate some storms that might be characterized as
supercells on our side of the Iowa border.

Looking back across eastern Kansas and western Missouri, the MCV
moving in is working into a very similar environment as the activity
up near the Iowa border with respect to the instability. Shear values
are a bit less; however, given the past history of the storm across
Kansas, and the observation that there is still notable circulation
within the MCV, and locally strong and damaging winds look to be the
threat across areas of eastern Kansas and far western Missouri for
the rest of the afternoon hours.

Tonight's weather will be highly dependent on this afternoons
activity. The general trend will be for the afternoon storms to
continue northeast, with activity not quite as strong across central
Missouri owing to a weaker shear profile. However, whether this
leading activity leaves behind an effective boundary that more
storms will train along, and how far south said effective boundary
might be as the true front sweeps south tonight will all play into
the forecast. Current hi-resolution models point at the activity
currently bubbling up back in south central Kansas sliding northeast
across our area this evening. It's likely that this activity will
follow any boundary that the leading line of storms has left across
east central Kansas and central Missouri. Activity this evening
could also gain a boost as the true front moves south tonight. All
this points at the best corridor of activity this evening and
overnight likely starting north of the Missouri River, but south
of Highway 36, but sagging south of the River late in the evening
to overnight hours; especially in areas of central Missouri.
While the current afternoon storms are rather progressive, and
therefore likely not to result in any immediate flooding issues,
storms later this evening and overnight -- especially in areas
along and south of the Missouri River-- may have some flooding
issues.

Thursday...the cutoff low will have moved into the Plains which will
allow the cold front to sweep south into southern Missouri by
morning. This will take the focus for any thunderstorms, severe or
otherwise, into southern and eastern Missouri. However, we still
have lingering showers across areas south of the Missouri River;
though no flooding or severe weather is expected as far north as our
area of responsibility. Otherwise, Thursday will be cool with highs
only in the 60s to around 70.

Friday into the weekend...temperatures will warm up going forward
into the weekend as what is left of the cutoff low will move to our
east and a ridge moves in for the weekend, keeping us dry.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2017

VFR conditions are prevailing across the at this time, but there
are storms bubbling up on the radar as the remnants of a
convective complex approaches Kansas City from the southwest.
Widespread activity is expected to develop and move across the
Kansas-Missouri state line early to mid afternoon with mostly VFR
CIGs; though a few strong storms may push both the CIG and VIS
down into the MVFR range for brief periods. VFR clouds should
then stick around with another round of storms expected later,
overnight. Confidence is not as high on the secondary activity as
it will be highly dependent on where this afternoon stuff goes.
Either way, the frontal boundary up north will then sweep south
overnight which might result in IFR CIGs early Thursday morning
along with a wind shift to the north.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
409 AM CDT Wed May 10 2017

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-110915-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
409 AM CDT Wed May 10 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Severe weather will be possible across the entire outlook area
 from late this afternoon into this evening. The main threats will
 be for damaging winds and large hail however, the chance for an
 isolated tornado can not be ruled out.

 One to two inches of precipitation will be possible this afternoon
 through Thursday which may lead to minor river flooding.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

 Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
204 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2017

MOZ021-022-029-101945-
Clinton MO-Caldwell MO-Clay MO-
204 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CLAY...CLINTON AND
WESTERN CALDWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 204 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Plattsburg, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cameron, Smithville, Plattsburg, Lathrop, Gower, Trimble, Holt and
Turney.

This includes Interstate 35 in Missouri between mile markers 31 and
53.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Pleasant Hill.

&&

LAT...LON 3979 9419 3953 9407 3953 9420 3946 9422
      3938 9460 3963 9460 3975 9429 3974 9421
      3978 9421
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 243DEG 28KT 3952 9451

LG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
212 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2017

KSZ104-105-MOZ029-030-037-038-043-102000-
Johnson KS-Wyandotte KS-Cass MO-Ray MO-Lafayette MO-Jackson MO-
Clay MO-
212 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN WYANDOTTE...NORTHEASTERN
JOHNSON...NORTH CENTRAL CASS...CLAY...SOUTHERN RAY...WESTERN
LAFAYETTE AND JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 212 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Merriam to near Raytown to near Greenwood.
Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Kansas City, Overland Park, Independence, Lee's Summit, Shawnee, Blue
Springs, Lenexa, Leawood, Raytown, Liberty, Gladstone, Grandview,
Belton, Prairie Village, Raymore, Grain Valley, Excelsior Springs,
Merriam, Mission and Kearney.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Missouri between mile markers 0 and 38.
 Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 416 and 423.
 Interstate 35 in Missouri between mile markers 0 and 26.
 Interstate 35 in Kansas between mile markers 222 and 235.
 Interstate 29 between mile markers 0 and 2.
 Interstate 635 between mile markers 0 and 9.
 Interstate 470 between mile markers 0 and 16.
 Interstate 435 between mile markers 0 and 9, and between mile
markers 47 and 83.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Pleasant Hill.

&&

LAT...LON 3916 9467 3916 9460 3921 9460 3945 9426
      3931 9391 3912 9365 3898 9400 3892 9411
      3886 9412 3873 9436 3890 9464 3898 9492
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 234DEG 43KT 3905 9470 3899 9451 3885 9429

LG

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