Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
639 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 246 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2017

At 19z a surface low was located generally over northeast
Oklahoma with a strong pressure gradient over eastern Missouri,
producing stronger winds than what's currently being experienced
across eastern Kansas and western Missouri closer to the low
pressure center. Behind this surface low is a cold front, which is
located along a line from KFNB to KAVK. This cold front will
continue to push eastward with time, ultimately being the focal
point for convective development later in the day. The warm sector
on the eastern side of the surface low will likely be characterized
by temperatures in the lower to middle 70s with dewpoints in the
lower to middle 50s as far north as Kansas City. Further south,
toward Bates County and areas of SE KS and SW MO dewpoints will be a
bit higher, but it's doubtful that those dew points will make it far
enough north to bring instability high enough for robust/explosive
convection. That being said, there will likely be enough instability
- in the 750 to 1250 J/kg MLCAPE range - to produce a few storms,
which could be strong. Expect the bulk of the storms to form in
SE/EC Kansas, then move east through the evening and into the
overnight hours. Deep layer shear values will be in the 40 to 50 kt
range, but shear vectors will be generally parallel to the cold
front so storm mode could be more linear by the time it reaches the
forecast area. Ahead of the line of storms will be
southerly/southeasterly surface winds which will combine with the
veering-with-height wind profile to contribute to good low level
shear, which will make the tornado concern non-zero.  Mitigating
tornado risk will be the linear/quasi-linear storm mode as well as
temperatures cooling after dark. By 00z to 02z storms will be moving
into the KC metro area, then eventually off to the east into
central Missouri through the 03z to 05z time frame.

Post frontal showers with maybe a few thunderstorms will continue
through the day on Wednesday, more toward western and Central
Missouri, with areas of northwest Missouri likely staying mostly dry
through the day on Wed. By Wednesday night conditions will dry out
across the area, bringing a lull to the weather until late in the
week and into the weekend.

By Friday night troughing will take place over the western CONUS,
putting SW flow aloft over the forecast area. Good moisture will
return by this time period, which will provide some fuel for several
periods of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. The major
focus for this activity looks like it will be mostly anchored to a
surface boundary which will likely set up in southern Missouri.
Expect the bulk of the precipitation to occur south of the forecast
area, however there will be plenty of precipitation across the
forecast area as the trough out west provides lift for the rain.
Still looking at a fairly tight gradient between areas of southern
Missouri where the heavy rain will be more widespread and areas of
northern Missouri where rain will be lighter with more lulls.
Generally expecting perhaps an inch or two along and north of I-70,
with areas south of I-70 perhaps getting over 2 inches through the
weekend. There could be some flooding concerns with this prolonged
rain event, but they should be somewhat isolated in areas much
further north than I-44.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2017

A cold frontal boundary will be pushing through the area early in
the TAF period creating potential thunderstorms and MVFR ceilings
as it passes. The bulk of the thunderstorm activity is expected to
stay south of KMCI with KMKC and KIXD right on the northern edge
of the thunderstorms. The thunderstorm threat will move off to the
east after 08Z with MVFR ceilings pushing into the area at this
timeframe. There is the potential for IFR ceilings between 10-15Z,
but for now the TAFs will remain with low MVFR criteria. MVFR
ceilings will remain in the area through the end of the period
with VFR ceilings occurring after the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...CDB/Barham

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
459 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-261000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
459 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 A cold front sweeping through tonight will bring the potential for
 severe thunderstorms to the region this evening.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 http://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

 An active weather pattern will persist from Tuesday night through
 the rest of the work week, giving everyone on and off chances of
 showers and storms through the coming weekend.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 http://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
953 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2017

KSZ057-105-MOZ043-260330-
Johnson KS-Miami KS-Cass MO-
953 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MIAMI...SOUTHEASTERN
JOHNSON AND NORTHWESTERN CASS COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

At 952 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Louisburg, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Belton, Raymore, Harrisonville, Peculiar, Louisburg, Cleveland,
Freeman, Lake Annette, West Line, Chiles and Bucyrus.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
east central Kansas...and west central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3854 9472 3871 9482 3884 9445 3884 9442
      3864 9432
TIME...MOT...LOC 0252Z 244DEG 31KT 3867 9469

Mell