Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Kansas City, MO

216 
WWUS53 KEAX 142001
SVSEAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
301 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

MOC121-142011-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0097.000000T0000Z-170614T2000Z/
Macon MO-
301 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MACON COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been allowed to expire.  However heavy rain
is still possible with this thunderstorm.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
north central Missouri.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Pleasant Hill.

LAT...LON 3966 9230 3964 9246 3977 9255 3991 9229
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 240DEG 36KT 3980 9227 

$$

Cutter

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1134 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 405 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

Strong surface pressure gradient remains in place over the area
between the slowly progressing surface low, which is currently over
the Missouri River in eastern Nebraska, and the surface high
pressure area over southeast CONUS. This pressure gradient has been
responsible for the couple straight days of gusty southerly winds,
and we will likely see one more day of gusty winds as the pressure
gradient will remain in tact for most of the day. Just off the
surface a strong low level jet characterized by SW winds around 50
to 60 kts is helping to maintain an area of light to moderate
showers and thunderstorms over eastern Kansas and parts of Nebraska.
As this jet shifts east with time it could usher in some showers and
thunderstorms to far eastern Kansas and western Missouri through the
morning hours. Between sunrise and the early afternoon the low level
jet will likely decrease due to diurnal mixing, and thunderstorms
should go on the decline until early to late afternoon.

The picture for Wednesday afternoon with respect to thunderstorms is
a bit uncertain still. Good moisture/instability will be in place
over the forecast area, as temperatures will reach the upper 80s to
lower 90s and dewpoints will generally be in the upper 60s to lower
70s. This will yield ML CAPE values approaching 3000+ J/kg over the
area. One question will be whether we can overcome the capping
inversion, which model soundings across the area indicate won't be
much of a problem. Another question is whether the broad mid/upper
trough provides enough forcing for storms to form later this
afternoon/evening. As we approach this event short-range, hi-res
convective allowing models (CAMs) indicate a rather isolated to
scattered nature to these Wednesday afternoon storms. The better
chances for thunderstorms may come across north central and
northeast Missouri closer to the forcing associated with the upper
wave. Areas further south become rather conditional with respect to
afternoon/evening impacts. Given the high instability strong
updrafts would be likely with any storm that can form. Deep layer
shear is rather minimal, in the 20 to 30 kt range, so supercell
structures are unlikely; however, a few semi-organized convective
complexes could form across the area, but again, the coverage of
storms is highly in question. Given good mid level lapse rates
approaching 8 C/km hail would be the primary concern with wind being
a close second. Tornado concerns at this time look to negligible.
Storms forming over western Illinois and far northeast Kansas will
likely form an organized MCS and drop southward, perhaps clipping
areas of central Missouri later tonight.

Thursday also brings a bit of a conditional concern for another
round of strong to severe thunderstorms over eastern Kansas and
western Missouri. The highly unstable environment over the eastern
Plains remains in place, with around 4000+ J/kg of instability.
Scattered thunderstorms will likely form along a dry line boundary
in central Kansas and perhaps quickly form a MCS, which will push
E/SE into eastern Kansas and perhaps western Missouri. While the
confidence in this solution is growing, the confidence in the exact
path of the one or numerous complexes pushing into eastern Kansas is
a bit uncertain.

Friday brings another round of conditional thunderstorm concerns for
portions of the forecast area. Once again with the unstable airmass
in place for Friday and good mid/upper flow over the top of that
unstable air mass, another round of strong to severe thunderstorms
will likely form in eastern Nebraska and again push southeast. These
storms could move into northern Missouri Friday night, bringing with
it another round of strong to severe storms.

Models have become quite a bit more aggressive in recent runs
regarding a strong surface ridge nosing into the mid-lower Missouri
River Valley by Saturday. The initial cold front passage will likely
bring a round/line of storms through the area, and depending on
where the boundary stalls rain could be a concern through the
weekend, especially south of I-70 where the boundary will more
likely stall. Cooler and drier conditions will persist through the
second half of the weekend and into early next week as the surface
ridge slowly lumbers through the area.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1127 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

The main impact with this forecast period is with the potential
for afternoon thunderstorms. There is some uncertainty on whether
or not storms will form near the terminals as the likelihood of
development will mostly be limited to areas south and east of the
terminal sites. This remains a possibility, however, though any
storms which may develop should be short-lived and chances will
steadily decrease through the early evening. Could see a brief
reduction to MVFR ceilings within any storms which may develop,
along with temporarily reduced visibilities. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will return through the remainder of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...Welsh

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
452 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-151000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
452 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will push through the region this morning
dissipating after sunrise as they move east. Another round of storms
is expected to develop in the afternoon, mainly from the KC Metro and
east after noon. These storms will be mainly scattered in nature but
will have the potential to be strong to severe where they form. The
main threat will be large hail and damaging winds.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Storms are expected to develop Thursday night into Friday morning
over eastern KS and move into Missouri. These storms do have the
possibility of being strong to severe with heavy rain and damaging
winds being the main threat. Another round of storms will form up
over night Friday into Saturday morning over Iowa moving down into
northern Missouri Saturday morning. These storms could also have
strong winds associated with them as they push through the region.
Once again storms will develop Iowa Saturday night into Sunday
pushing through most of the region Sunday morning. These storms also
have the possibility of being strong to severe as they push through.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1059 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

KSZ102-MOZ012-020-141630-
Doniphan KS-Buchanan MO-Andrew MO-
1059 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL DONIPHAN...NORTH
CENTRAL BUCHANAN AND SOUTHEASTERN ANDREW COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM
CDT...

At 1058 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
St. Joseph, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
St. Joseph, Elwood, Country Club Villa, Country Club, Cosby and
Helena.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 29 between mile markers 47 and 55.
 Interstate 229 between mile markers 4 and 11.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3987 9460 3985 9460 3971 9487 3979 9493
      3999 9470
TIME...MOT...LOC 1558Z 226DEG 22KT 3979 9484

Cutter

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1224 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

MOZ030-031-038-141800-
Ray MO-Carroll MO-Lafayette MO-
1224 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN RAY...SOUTHWESTERN
CARROLL AND NORTH CENTRAL LAFAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM CDT...

At 1223 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hardin, or 7 miles northeast of Lexington, moving northeast at 25
mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Norborne and Hardin.

LAT...LON 3916 9378 3924 9390 3947 9368 3930 9347
TIME...MOT...LOC 1723Z 226DEG 22KT 3925 9377

Cutter

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
228 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

MOZ025-033-142000-
Macon MO-Randolph MO-
228 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN RANDOLPH AND
SOUTHEASTERN MACON COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 228 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Bevier, or 9 miles southwest of Macon, moving east at
40 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Macon, Bevier, Jacksonville and Excello.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
north central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3959 9230 3954 9265 3967 9269 3970 9269
      3984 9229
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 249DEG 34KT 3964 9257

Cutter