Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
310 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 301 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

Sufficient mixing has permitted increased 850 hPa winds out of the
southwest to translate to the surface, with observed wind gusts up
to 35 to 40 mph across the area. While gusts will taper off after
sunset, increased surface winds will persist ahead of a cold front
expected to push through northwest Missouri this evening. Within
the ongoing southwesterly low level flow, dew point values have
increased into the low 60s as of Saturday afternoon. While ascent
has been lacking across the area due to a capped environment,
this is expected to erode with frontogenetical support this
evening along the cold front. The upper-level forcing of this
boundary is centered over the Northern Plains with an attendant
surface low positioned near the Great Lakes Region. This will
create parallel surface flow along the cold front locally, thus
decreasing overall surface convergence into the boundary. This in
turn will act to decrease the overall tornadic potential along
the front, though small hail and strong winds will remain possible
along the boundary, particularly as storms merge near central
Missouri. With that said, the overall severe threat is relatively
low, given the displaced upper dynamics, which will remain well
north of the area. Considering the linear nature and relatively
progressive nature of the storms, rainfall totals should mostly be
limited to 0.5" to perhaps 0.75" tonight into Sunday morning.

With the displaced upper-level pattern becoming zonal by Sunday, the
frontal boundary will stall across central Missouri, well south of
the I-70 corridor. The boundary will act as forcing for
additional storms to develop Sunday afternoon along and south of
the stalled front. While severe weather is not anticipated with
activity on Sunday, river levels and streams in this area will
need to be monitored as this boundary slowly lifts back to the
north as a warm front Sunday night through Monday morning. The
active pattern will continue through the early work week as a mid-
level shortwave advances north of the CWA Tuesday morning. Latest
guidance depicts this feature further north compared to previous
runs, thus lessening the overall forcing, and particularly the
hydrologic concerns during this time. What this will equate to,
however, is additional chances of storms through early Tuesday
before a subsequent cold front pushes through the local area
Tuesday night. While severe weather is possible during this time
period, ongoing precipitation throughout the day will likely limit
this potential, not to mention the fact that upper-level dynamics
will once again be displaced. Storm chances will continue off and
on throughout the week, with seven day rainfall totals expected
to reach near three to four inches by the time all is said and
done.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

Note: The TAF for KSTJ will be NIL through the weekend due to
missing observations at the terminal. Observations are not
anticipated to return until Monday.

Gusty southwesterly winds will persist through the afternoon until
gradually tapering off near sunset. The main impact will arrive
shortly thereafter ahead of a cold front as thunderstorms will
develop northwest of the terminals and push through the area
tonight. Expecting to see activity intensify as the frontal
boundary approaches by 05 to 06Z. Given the linear nature of this
activity, convection will quickly taper off with winds becoming
northwesterly in the wake of the cold front. VFR conditions will
then continue through the remainder of the period and well into
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
501 AM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-161015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
501 AM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Showers and thunderstorms expected today, mainly this evening and
 overnight. A few severe storms are possible.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 http://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

 Periodic thunderstorms are in the forecast through next week. The
 threat of severe weather is low.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 http://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo