Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Kansas City, MO

401 
WWUS53 KEAX 122256
SVSEAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
556 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

KSC043-MOC087-122305-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0161.000000T0000Z-170712T2300Z/
Doniphan KS-Holt MO-
556 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN DONIPHAN AND
SOUTHEASTERN HOLT COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 600 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small hail
and gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3994 9534 4006 9508 3976 9506 3977 9534
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 241DEG 23KT 3992 9513 

$$

Welsh

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
253 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 252 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

Another round of hot and very humid conditions this afternoon with
heat index values widespread in the 103 to 107 range, and even
approaching 110 in downtown KC. The one exception is far northern
Missouri where remnant clouds from earlier rain showers has kept
temperatures in the 80s. While this makes it unlikely these areas
will reach heat advisory criteria, humidity remains fairly
oppressive in that area and just a quick clearing could get heat
index values near 100, so will go ahead and let the advisory ride
for now.

Convection is developing just north of Omaha this afternoon along
a cold front, and this activity will spread and expand into much
of southern Iowa and parts of northern Missouri overnight as the
front progresses southward and interacts with an intensifying low
level jet. This interaction could bring areas of heavy rain,
although for now the higher chances look to be just north of the
Missouri/Iowa border. Will keep an eye on far northern Missouri
where flooding was a big issue a couple of weeks ago, but they've
had plenty of time to dry out since then so it will still take 2
or 3 inches of rainfall before flash flooding starts to become a
concern.

The front will make continued southward progress on Thursday and
should reach the I-70 corridor by early evening. The big question
is if any clouds and showers from overnight activity linger into
the late morning and early afternoon and how far south they
spread. If skies remain mostly sunny, then compressional heating
and moisture pooling ahead of the front could easily boost heat
index values close to 105 especially for counties either side of
the Missouri River. While this would be particularly problematic
being the 4th consecutive day of excessive heat, there's a decent
chance that clouds could linger for much of the day across these
areas and keep temperatures in the upper 80s/lower 90s as opposed
to middle 90s. Therefore will not issue another heat advisory for
now, but later shifts will have to monitor cloud/precip trends
overnight.

Another round of showers and storms is likely to quickly develop
along the front as it approaches the I-70 corridor during the late
afternoon and evening hours Thursday. Strong instability could be
supportive of very heavy rain, copious lightning, and perhaps some
hail and gusty winds although weak shear should keep these storms
fairly unorganized. While locally heavy rain will be a concern,
the lack of a pronounced LLJ and steady southward progression of
the frontal boundary should cut back on the potential for training
storms and widespread heavy rainfall.

Some showers and storms could linger into Friday before high
pressure builds in from the north and clears things out. This will
provide a couple of cooler days Fri and Sat with highs in the 80s
and dewpoints in the 60s before a return to ridging brings
temperatures back into the 90s by next week. Wouldn't be surprised
to see some upper 90s by Tuesday or Wednesday especially with
dewpoints progged to be a bit lower than they are this week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

Generally quiet aviation weather will continue most of the period,
although showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop across
Iowa later this evening and may affect far northern Missouri later
tonight. This activity is unlikely to affect the STJ or KC areas
until later Thursday afternoon and evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...Hawblitzel

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
507 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-131015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
507 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Hazardous heat is expected again today, with heat index values
ranging from the lower to mid 100s. Storms in northern Missouri later
today through tonight could become strong to possibly severe.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

 Could see additional thunderstorms on Thursday.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo