Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Kansas City, MO

335 
WWUS53 KEAX 102335
SVSEAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
635 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

MOC075-081-227-102345-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0159.000000T0000Z-170710T2345Z/
Worth MO-Gentry MO-Harrison MO-
635 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WORTH...NORTHEASTERN GENTRY AND WEST CENTRAL
HARRISON COUNTIES...

At 633 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Bethany to near New Hampton, moving southeast at
15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
New Hampton, Denver and Martinsville. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4025 9427 4043 9436 4043 9421 4025 9408
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 304DEG 12KT 4034 9402 4033 9421 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
319 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 319 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

A few very isolated storms are possible this afternoon and evening
in an area of congested cumulus along a weak frontal boundary just
north of the MO/IA border; however, model soundings indicate a
significant capping inversion and cu continues to stay relatively
flat, so development remains conditional and coverage would be
very limited across our far north. Should anything develop, the
main concern would be brief heavy rain and small hail; cores could
go up quickly in a very unstable environment but deep layer shear
values between 15-20 kts will prevent any real storm organization.

Otherwise, forecast remains on track for heat/humidity concerns
this afternoon through Wednesday, and increasing storm chances
beginning Wednesday night into Thursday. Max heat indices are
still expected to range from 104 to 108 each afternoon, and while
portions of eastern Missouri not included in the advisory may
brush criteria Tuesday, the longevity factor will not be as high
and there is more bust potential with convection trekking across
IA/IL during the morning.

The front which could spark isolated convection this evening will
lift back to the north on Tuesday and Wednesday, then will begin
to gradually push southward as upper-level troughing begins to dig
into the Great Lakes region and a few weak shortwaves dive a bit
further to the south and west than their current track. Timing and
placement of the front are still a bit uncertain but the higher
potential for cloud cover to limit heating and the southward
progression of the front on Thursday provides a fairly clean
delineation for the heat advisory ending Wednesday evening. As the
front moves in, weak upper-level flow and weak convergence along
the front should keep severe potential marginal, but instability
will be readily available and an isolated strong storm can't be
completely ruled out.

Anomalously hot conditions still look possible just beyond the end
of the forecast period, so even though temperatures should settle
closer to normal this weekend, the reprieve will likely be short-
lived.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast
period. Scattered cumulus will develop across the region this
afternoon, but the highest concentration/coverage should remain
both south and north of the terminals, and bases are expected to
settle above 4 kft. Winds will remain out of the southwest this
afternoon at sustained speeds around 10-12 kts, occasionally
gusting to 20-22 kts; then will begin to diminish slightly and
back to the SSW after sunset. Should any isolated storms develop
this afternoon, they are expected to remain primarily north of
all TAF sites, although will have to monitor their potential
proximity to KSTJ.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ025-102>105.

MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ001>006-011>016-
     020>024-028>031-037.

&&

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Laflin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
501 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-111015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
501 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Heat index values are expected to reach 102 to 107 degrees today as
 such...a heat advisory is in effect today through Wednesday.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

 Heat index values of 100 to 107 degrees are expected to continue
 Tuesday through Wednesday.

 Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night into Thursday the
 chances for severe weather seems low at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
602 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

MOZ005-102330-
Harrison MO-
602 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL HARRISON COUNTY
UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

At 601 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of New Hampton, or 9 miles northwest of Bethany,
moving southeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Martinsville.

This includes Interstate 35 in Missouri between mile markers 95 and
100.

LAT...LON 4035 9393 4024 9410 4039 9421 4045 9411
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 307DEG 11KT 4038 9413

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