Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
650 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 336 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

The MCS that pushes through this morning threw a wrench in the
forecast for the day by providing a large area of relatively stable
cooler air over the region.  The main impact of this occurring is
that the focus for convective development has shifted south from the
MO/IA border to down near the Missouri River. The focal point for
this development is going to be an elevated warm frontal boundary
around that is currently setting up right along the I-70 corridor. d
the 850mb level. An initial round of convection already sparked on
the elevated boundary around 700mb dropping nickel to quarter sized
hail and added some more precipitation to the metro area. This
synoptic setup looks to break the area into two different threats
for the CWA with the first one being flash flooding near the KC
Metro area and the second being severe weather near the KC Metro and
south into the warmer stable air near the surface warm frontal
boundary. For the hydro and flooding concern the main contributing
factors will be high PWAT values of 1.8 to 2.0", storm motion mostly
parallel to the warm frontal boundary, and the quasi-stationary
nature of this boundary for 6-9 hours this evening.  There will be
enough instability and shear for sustained convection with MUCAPE
values near 2500J/kg and 0-6km shear values near 30kts.  The added 1-
2" of rain through the metro this morning has dropped the flash
flood guidance for 1hr down to near 1.5" which will not be hard to
meet with a single thunderstorm so multiple storms would definitely
create potential issues through the KC Metro area.  For the severe
potential there is just enough shear to form up marginal supercells
or multicellular storm modes. Low level shear values are going to be
in the range for possible tornado development for the southern KC
Metro area closer to the surface boundary where more of a S-SE
surface wind exist.  Large hail is definitely a possibility with
damaging winds also possible from downdrafts, but a higher wind
chance as this becomes linear and shifts south.  An incoming
shortwave will finally help to push the low pressure over the
midwest to the east shifting the boundary that has been over the
area the last few days to the south.

This boundary is expected to shift south with weak high pressure
building into the region Friday through Sunday making for a fairly
nice weekend with dry conditions and temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s.  A shortwave will enter the Rockies Sunday night
developing a surface low over western Kansas which will lift this
boundary back up into the region as a warm frontal boundary.  This
will trigger a wet pattern as the shortwave stalls over the midwest.
PoPs remain relatively high from Monday through Thursday morning
unfortunately making the 4th of July a potential washout and even
adding the threat for flooding on a holiday weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

Challenging night for aviation interests given the multiple rounds
of convection that have already occurred with more anticipated
this evening and into the overnight hours. Models are struggling
to get a grip on how convection will evolve tonight, especially
given where the atmosphere has already been worked over earlier
today (i.e. STJ, MCI, etc.). Should a convective complex develop
overnight, it appears that IXD and maybe MKC have the better
chances of being directly impacted, with much more uncertainty
further north at MCI and STJ. Will monitor trends closely and
continue to make adjustments to future TAF issuances as needed.

By tomorrow morning, with plentiful moist grounds and lingering LL
moisture, lowered ceilings look to potentially impact the area
terminals. However, convection should remain south of the
terminals tomorrow.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for KSZ025-057-102>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for MOZ001>006-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>039-043-044.

&&

Discussion...Barham
Aviation...lg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
426 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-300930-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
426 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Thunderstorms will be possible this morning however, these storms
 are not expected to be severe.

 Several rounds of storms will be possible today. Conditions this
 afternoon and evening will be favorable for severe storms with large
 hail...damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible.

 With several rounds of storms possible today falling across already
 saturated soil there is also a flash flood threat. An additional 2
 to 4 inches of rain with locally higher amounts are possible. There
 will also be flooding along area rivers, creeks and streams.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

 Thunderstorms will continue into Friday morning however the severe
 threat will have diminished by then. However, there may be area and
 river flooding ongoing.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1000 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     HAIL             3 S FERRELVIEW          39.27N 94.66W
06/29/2017  E1.00 INCH       PLATTE             MO   PUBLIC

            MPING REPORT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1005 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1004 PM     HAIL             WEATHERBY LAKE          39.24N 94.70W
06/29/2017  M0.75 INCH       PLATTE             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SBLAIR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1008 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1008 PM     HAIL             3 S FERRELVIEW          39.27N 94.66W
06/29/2017  E1.00 INCH       PLATTE             MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1012 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 N MACON               39.80N 92.47W
06/29/2017                   MACON              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE ROADS THAT NORMALLY DO NOT FLOOD ARE SEEING
            FLOWING WATER SEVERAL INCHES DEEP. ROADS FLOODING INCLUDE
            ROAD DD AND HIGHWAY 63, ROAD 149 AND EAGLE, ROAD 149 AND
            DOGWOOD.

&&

SBLAIR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1029 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     HAIL             4 S KANSAS CITY INTL AR 39.24N 94.72W
06/29/2017  E1.00 INCH       PLATTE             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY TO QUARTER HAIL SIZE - TIME ESTIMATED

&&

SBLAIR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1035 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     HAIL             1 N OAKVIEW             39.22N 94.57W
06/29/2017  E1.00 INCH       CLAY               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&