Areal Flood Warning 13, NWS Kansas City, MO

167 
WGUS83 KEAX 031801
FLSEAX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
101 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

MOC013-037-053-083-089-101-107-159-195-031806-
/O.EXP.KEAX.FA.W.0013.000000T0000Z-170503T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cass MO-Henry MO-Bates MO-Pettis MO-Howard MO-Saline MO-Lafayette MO-
Cooper MO-Johnson MO-
101 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

...THE FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 100 PM CDT FOR CASS...HENRY...
BATES...PETTIS...HOWARD...SALINE...SOUTHERN LAFAYETTE...COOPER AND
JOHNSON COUNTIES...

The threat for heavy rain has ended as any additional rainfall 
through tonight is expected to be less than an inch. Therefore the 
threat for additional flooding has decreased considerably.

While the threat for heavy rain is ending, several areas of flooding 
continue and some roads remain closed. Check with local officials 
before traveling across roadways that may be flooded. In addition, 
several rivers remain flooded across western and central Missouri, 
including the Big Creek, South Grand, Blackwater, Lamine and Petite 
Saline Rivers.

LAT...LON 3806 9461 3885 9460 3883 9412 3892 9411
      3893 9350 3929 9348 3923 9336 3940 9316
      3931 9296 3922 9292 3923 9284 3933 9279
      3925 9243 3868 9262 3870 9306 3853 9307
      3851 9352 3821 9352 3821 9405 3803 9406

$$

Hawblitzel

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1220 PM CDT Tue May 2 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 411 AM CDT TUE MAY 2 2017

Outside of minor tweaks, ongoing forecast remains on track. By far,
primary concern will be next round of precipitation tonight into
Wednesday impacting many areas still in flood.

The daylight hours today will be rather uneventful outside of a
notable increase in cloud cover as the day progresses. Maximum
temperatures will be much warmer in the middle 60s to near 70. The
next upper wave out of southwest Canada will amplify over the plains
states on Tuesday into Wednesday. A surface warm front will sharpen
along the OK/KS to MO/AR border late today into tonight. Isentropic
ascent and increasing H85-H7 frontogenesis will generate a swath of
precipitation beginning late this evening north of the surface warm
front. While instability will be shunned well to the south, moderate
rainfall rates will develop tonight into Wednesday as deep moisture
convergence remains in place. The track of the heaviest
precipitation is likely to focus along a Fort Scott to Clinton to
Sedalia line tonight into Wednesday AM. Along and just south of this
line, total rainfall amounts are anticipated to average near 2
inches. This area is still reeling from ongoing flooding and this
additional rainfall will potentially lead to additional/prolonged
flooding. With ongoing flood warnings, opted not to issue a flood
watch since flooding is already occurring and rainfall rates will be
well shy of flash flood guidance, but the important message to
convey is that additional moderate to heavy rain is expected in
areas currently in flood.

Primary area of rainfall exits the forecast area late Wednesday
night. Cannot rule out additional scattered showers on Thursday on
the backside of the low, but rainfall amounts will generally be
light. Otherwise a warming trend is expected Friday into the weekend
with dry conditions and ample sunshine.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT TUE MAY 2 2017

VFR conditions this afternoon and this evening will deteriorate
by tomorrow morning as rain moves into the area. Ceilings will
fall to the low MVFR range with possible IFR ceilings. IFR
ceilings look more likely south of highway 50, where the chances
for rainfall are highest. Once conditions fall, they'll remain
MVFR to IFR through the remainder of the forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...CDB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
447 AM CDT Tue May 2 2017

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-031000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
447 AM CDT Tue May 2 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Flooding along area rivers, creeks, and streams is ongoing along
 and south of the Missouri River. Several roads remain closed due to
 water over the roadway.

 An additional 1 to 2 inches of precipitation will be possible
 tonight through Wednesday along and south of the Missouri River
 aggravating ongoing river flooding and causing additional flooding.

More detailed information can be accessed at...
 http://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

 Flooding along area rivers, creeks, and streams, and the adjacent
 roadways are expected to last through the end of the week.