Alert archive / Illinois / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2017

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Quad Cities, IA

May 17, 20175 counties in Illinois

NWS Quad Cities, IA issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 17, 2017, 9:00 PM CDT for 5 counties in Illinois. It was in force for 60 min. 4 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
May 17, 2017, 9:00 PM CDT (02:00 UTC)
Expired
May 17, 2017, 10:00 PM CDT
In force
60 min
Issued by
NWS Quad Cities, IA
Area
Storm-based polygon
Hail
1.0 in
Wind
60.0 mph

Counties Carroll County, IL, Jo Daviess County, IL, Rock Island County, IL, Stephenson County, IL, Whiteside County, IL

The radar

The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 78 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
May 17, 9:25 PM CDTTSTM WND GST 601 E Freeport, IL
May 17, 9:32 PM CDTNON-TSTM WND GST 70Milledgeville, IL
May 17, 9:38 PM CDTTSTM WND GST 601 E Freeport, IL
May 17, 9:40 PM CDTTSTM WND DMGProphetstown, ILTREE DAMAGE IN PHROPHETSTOWN.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 3 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 25 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
May 17, 3:44 PM CDTTornado WatchSPC9 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 00:00Z, 2.0 hours before the alert went out and 73 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 00:00Z on 2017-05-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1161 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 00:00Z on 2017-05-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 211 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1161 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-9 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1502 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
53 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
211 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
306 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.0
Supercell composite
7.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

750 
WUUS53 KDVN 180200
SVRDVN
ILC015-085-161-177-195-180300-
/O.NEW.KDVN.SV.W.0081.170518T0200Z-170518T0300Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
900 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

The National Weather Service in the Quad Cities has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northeastern Rock Island County in northwestern Illinois...
  Whiteside County in northwestern Illinois...
  Eastern Jo Daviess County in northwestern Illinois...
  Carroll County in northwestern Illinois...
  Stephenson County in northwestern Illinois...

* Until 1000 PM CDT

* At 900 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from 7 miles northwest of Dakota to near Cedarville to
  near Lanark to near Garden Plain, moving northeast at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

  SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. 

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage 
           to roofs, siding, and trees. 

* Locations impacted include...
  Freeport, Sterling, Rock Falls, Morrison, Mount Carroll, Fulton,
  Lena, Prophetstown, Stockton, Port Byron, Erie, Lanark, Warren,
  Garden Plain, Milledgeville, Fairhaven, Albany, Pearl City, Tampico
  and Shannon.

This includes Interstate 88 between mile markers 10 and 44.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move immediately to shelter inside a strong building. Stay
away from windows.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for northwestern
Illinois...and east central Iowa.

LAT...LON 4250 8940 4220 8940 4220 8969 4193 8969
      4193 8963 4159 8963 4160 9034 4177 9026
      4181 9018 4192 9015 4212 9004 4218 9004
      4223 9001 4251 8999
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 246DEG 34KT 4246 8965 4237 8969 4213 8989 4177
9012

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ERVIN
8 follow-up statements
038 
WWUS53 KDVN 180210
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
910 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

ILC015-085-161-177-195-180300-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-170518T0300Z/
Rock Island IL-Whiteside IL-Jo Daviess IL-Carroll IL-Stephenson IL-
910 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN ROCK ISLAND...WHITESIDE...EASTERN JO DAVIESS...
CARROLL AND STEPHENSON COUNTIES...

At 910 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles northwest of Rock City to near Pearl City to
near Chadwick to near Erie, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Freeport, Sterling, Rock Falls, Morrison, Mount Carroll, Fulton,
Lena, Prophetstown, Stockton, Port Byron, Erie, Lanark, Warren,
Garden Plain, Milledgeville, Fairhaven, Albany, Pearl City, Tampico
and Shannon.

This includes Interstate 88 between mile markers 10 and 44.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for northwestern
Illinois...and east central Iowa.

LAT...LON 4250 8940 4220 8940 4220 8969 4193 8969
      4193 8963 4159 8963 4160 9034 4177 9026
      4181 9018 4192 9015 4212 9004 4218 9004
      4223 9001 4251 8999
TIME...MOT...LOC 0210Z 254DEG 26KT 4249 8956 4232 8975 4205 8985 4165
9001

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ERVIN
954 
WWUS53 KDVN 180219
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
919 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

ILC161-180228-
/O.CAN.KDVN.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-170518T0300Z/
Rock Island IL-
919 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN ROCK ISLAND
COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for northwestern
Illinois...and east central Iowa.

LAT...LON 4220 8940 4220 8969 4193 8969 4193 8963
      4159 8963 4160 9016 4163 9016 4164 9017
      4165 9016 4167 9019 4171 9018 4181 9018
      4192 9015 4212 9004 4218 9004 4249 8988
      4250 8940
TIME...MOT...LOC 0218Z 245DEG 34KT 4253 8960 4235 8966 4208 8976 4160
8993

$$

ILC015-085-177-195-180300-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-170518T0300Z/
Whiteside IL-Jo Daviess IL-Carroll IL-Stephenson IL-
919 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR WHITESIDE...SOUTHEASTERN JO DAVIESS...CARROLL AND STEPHENSON
COUNTIES...

At 918 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Monroe to Cedarville to near Lanark to near
Prophetstown, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Freeport, Sterling, Rock Falls, Morrison, Mount Carroll, Fulton,
Lena, Prophetstown, Erie, Lanark, Garden Plain, Milledgeville,
Fairhaven, Pearl City, Tampico, Shannon, Cedarville, Davis, Lyndon
and Chadwick.

This includes Interstate 88 between mile markers 14 and 44.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for northwestern
Illinois...and east central Iowa.

LAT...LON 4220 8940 4220 8969 4193 8969 4193 8963
      4159 8963 4160 9016 4163 9016 4164 9017
      4165 9016 4167 9019 4171 9018 4181 9018
      4192 9015 4212 9004 4218 9004 4249 8988
      4250 8940
TIME...MOT...LOC 0218Z 245DEG 34KT 4253 8960 4235 8966 4208 8976 4160
8993

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ERVIN
046 
WWUS53 KDVN 180229
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
929 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

ILC015-085-177-195-180300-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-170518T0300Z/
Whiteside IL-Jo Daviess IL-Carroll IL-Stephenson IL-
929 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR WHITESIDE...SOUTHEASTERN JO DAVIESS...CARROLL AND STEPHENSON
COUNTIES...

At 929 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles southwest of Brodhead to Dakota to Shannon to
near Tampico, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. The largest hail 
         is expected in southern Whiteside county.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Freeport, Sterling, Rock Falls, Morrison, Mount Carroll, Lena,
Prophetstown, Erie, Lanark, Milledgeville, Fairhaven, Pearl City,
Tampico, Shannon, Cedarville, Davis, Lyndon, Chadwick, Dakota and
German Valley.

This includes Interstate 88 between mile markers 20 and 44.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for northwestern
Illinois.

LAT...LON 4220 8940 4220 8969 4193 8969 4193 8963
      4159 8963 4160 9016 4173 9004 4180 9005
      4188 9002 4195 9004 4218 9004 4249 8988
      4250 8940
TIME...MOT...LOC 0229Z 243DEG 33KT 4257 8948 4239 8954 4213 8972 4161
8984

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ERVIN
701 
WWUS53 KDVN 180232
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
932 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

ILC015-085-177-195-180300-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-170518T0300Z/
Whiteside IL-Jo Daviess IL-Carroll IL-Stephenson IL-
932 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR WHITESIDE...SOUTHEASTERN JO DAVIESS...CARROLL AND STEPHENSON
COUNTIES...

At 931 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Brodhead to Dakota to near Shannon to Tampico,
moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Freeport, Sterling, Rock Falls, Morrison, Mount Carroll, Lena,
Prophetstown, Erie, Lanark, Milledgeville, Fairhaven, Pearl City,
Tampico, Shannon, Cedarville, Davis, Lyndon, Chadwick, Dakota and
German Valley.

This includes Interstate 88 between mile markers 20 and 44.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for northwestern
Illinois.

LAT...LON 4220 8940 4220 8969 4193 8969 4193 8963
      4159 8963 4160 9016 4173 9004 4180 9005
      4188 9002 4195 9004 4218 9004 4249 8988
      4250 8940
TIME...MOT...LOC 0231Z 243DEG 33KT 4258 8945 4240 8951 4214 8969 4162
8981

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

ERVIN
208 
WWUS53 KDVN 180237
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
937 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

ILC085-180247-
/O.CAN.KDVN.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-170518T0300Z/
Jo Daviess IL-
937 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN JO DAVIESS COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for northwestern
Illinois.

LAT...LON 4220 8940 4220 8969 4193 8969 4193 8963
      4159 8963 4160 9016 4173 9004 4179 8988
      4188 8990 4199 8992 4222 8981 4249 8972
      4250 8940
TIME...MOT...LOC 0237Z 243DEG 31KT 4260 8940 4242 8946 4213 8969 4164
8975

$$

ILC015-177-195-180300-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-170518T0300Z/
Whiteside IL-Carroll IL-Stephenson IL-
937 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR WHITESIDE...EASTERN CARROLL AND STEPHENSON COUNTIES...

At 937 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Brodhead to Rock City to near Shannon to Tampico,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail. 

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Freeport, Sterling, Rock Falls, Prophetstown, Erie, Lanark,
Milledgeville, Tampico, Shannon, Cedarville, Davis, Lyndon, Chadwick,
Dakota, German Valley, Rock City, Coleta, Ridott, Deer Grove and
Emerson.

This includes Interstate 88 between mile markers 20 and 44.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for northwestern
Illinois.

LAT...LON 4220 8940 4220 8969 4193 8969 4193 8963
      4159 8963 4160 9016 4173 9004 4179 8988
      4188 8990 4199 8992 4222 8981 4249 8972
      4250 8940
TIME...MOT...LOC 0237Z 243DEG 31KT 4260 8940 4242 8946 4213 8969 4164
8975

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

ERVIN
192 
WWUS53 KDVN 180244
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
944 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

ILC015-177-195-180300-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-170518T0300Z/
Whiteside IL-Carroll IL-Stephenson IL-
944 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN WHITESIDE...EASTERN CARROLL AND EASTERN STEPHENSON
COUNTIES...

At 944 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Brodhead to Davis to near Forreston to near Deer
Grove, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail. 

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Freeport, Sterling, Rock Falls, Prophetstown, Milledgeville, Tampico,
Shannon, Cedarville, Davis, Lyndon, Dakota, German Valley, Rock City,
Ridott, Deer Grove, Emerson, Rock Grove, Fenton, Round Grove and
Hitt.

This includes Interstate 88 between mile markers 22 and 44.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for northwestern
Illinois.

LAT...LON 4220 8940 4220 8969 4193 8969 4193 8963
      4159 8963 4160 9004 4173 9004 4179 8988
      4184 8978 4201 8979 4222 8981 4249 8961
      4250 8940
TIME...MOT...LOC 0244Z 246DEG 34KT 4262 8935 4244 8941 4215 8964 4166
8970

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

ERVIN
319 
WWUS53 KDVN 180250
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
950 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

ILC015-180300-
/O.CAN.KDVN.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-170518T0300Z/
Carroll IL-
950 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have  moved out of
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for northwestern
Illinois.

LAT...LON 4220 8940 4220 8966 4194 8963 4159 8963
      4160 8995 4179 8988 4184 8978 4193 8973
      4193 8964 4219 8966 4220 8969 4222 8969
      4249 8961 4250 8940
TIME...MOT...LOC 0250Z 245DEG 34KT 4265 8926 4247 8932 4218 8955 4165
8987

$$

ILC177-195-180300-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-170518T0300Z/
Whiteside IL-Stephenson IL-
950 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN WHITESIDE AND EASTERN STEPHENSON COUNTIES...

At 950 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Orfordville to near Durand to near Forreston to near
Prophetstown, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Freeport, Sterling, Rock Falls, Prophetstown, Tampico, Cedarville,
Davis, Dakota, German Valley, Rock City, Ridott, Deer Grove, Emerson,
Rock Grove, Round Grove, Penrose, Como, Winneshiek, Douglas Park and
Agnew.

This includes Interstate 88 between mile markers 30 and 44.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for northwestern
Illinois.

LAT...LON 4220 8940 4220 8966 4194 8963 4159 8963
      4160 8995 4179 8988 4184 8978 4193 8973
      4193 8964 4219 8966 4220 8969 4222 8969
      4249 8961 4250 8940
TIME...MOT...LOC 0250Z 245DEG 34KT 4265 8926 4247 8932 4218 8955 4165
8987

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ERVIN
254 
WWUS53 KDVN 180255 RRA
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
955 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

ILC177-195-180305-
/O.EXP.KDVN.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-170518T0300Z/
Whiteside IL-Stephenson IL-
955 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN WHITESIDE AND EASTERN
STEPHENSON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1000 PM CDT...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of
the warned area. Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.
However gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible with these
thunderstorms.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for northwestern
Illinois.

LAT...LON 4220 8940 4220 8966 4194 8963 4159 8963
      4160 8995 4179 8988 4184 8978 4193 8973
      4193 8964 4219 8966 4220 8969 4222 8969
      4249 8961 4250 8940
TIME...MOT...LOC 0255Z 246DEG 34KT 4267 8921 4249 8927 4220 8950 4167
8982

$$

ERVIN

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Quad Cities, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 17, 6:45 PM CDT, 2 hours 15 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 17, 6:45 PM CDT, 2 hours 15 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
645 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 pm CDT Wed May 17 2017

A line of severe storms with confirmed wind gusts of 60 to 70
mph, heavy rainfall and hail is moving across eastern IA with
embedded supercells possibly producing tornadoes, mainly south of
I-80. Mesoanalysis indicates the tornado potential remains,
especially along the southern portions of the line, over the next
couple hours. A tornado watch remains in effect for most of the
CWA until 11 pm.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Abbreviated early issuance AFD to get ready for convective event.
Water vapor showing neg tilted upper wave on track acrs southeastern
Neb. After potentail convective severe event this afternoon and
evening, a reprieve with cooler conditions on Thu. Then the next
main upstream large cut-off upper low will roll out to the upper
Midwest for a wet end to the week and start to the weekend.
Generally cooler Sunday into earlier next week, with another wave
digging from the northwest for another precip event toward mid next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Will have to watch for isolated to sctrd elevated storms with
hail potential ahead of the "main show" for the rest of the
afternoon, but the main severe weather event currently gathering
steam/"bubbling" in sfc pressure falls max over the MO RVR
Valley. Strong wing of lift into current mesoanalysis-indicated
already strongly sheared environment in place acrs the local area,
supportive of enhanced severe weather risk acrs the area
especially along and west of the MS RVR. Most of latest run
HiRes/CAM's continue to suggest an arching wing or two of broken
line of supercells, mixed with a few strong convective clusters,
moving rapidly at 50-60 MPH in from the west- southwest mainly
after 21z, with prime impact window from 5 PM to 8 or 9 PM CDT
before the brunt of the activity blows eastward. Again speed of
storms to complicate matters and increase danger aspect. Current
CAPEs of 1000-1500 J/KG acrs the region may increase a bit more
through early evening, while brunt of Cap/EML starts to migrate
eastward. This should be adequate for such strong shear profiles
to work with for all modes of severe weather, with tornadoes and
large hail the prime threats. But lingering concern that limited
CAPE for such strong shear profiles, may actually limit a higher
end severe weather event such as if we had 3000+ CAPEs.

The tornado threat may be limited to the initial incoming line as
long as llvl winds have some type of southeasterly direction
component, but then switch to more hail and damaging winds, as llvl
ambient environmental winds go south-southwest making for a more
uniform vertical profile, but still very high in speed shear.

Some isolated to sctrd showers and storms may linger acrs the
northern half of the CWA after the main line exits off to the east-
northeast through midnight, but then mainly dry into Thu morning or
just some wrap-around showers in the far north as upper level
cyclone pivots acrs northern WI and induces wrap-around.

Thu...after wrap around showers decrease in the north, this day
mainly dry and cooler in between two upper cyclones, with varying
amounts of cloud cover. LLVL baroclinicity aligns and tightens along
and south of the DVN CWA into the evening, with northeast post-
frontal boundary layer winds keeping temps in the 60s to low 70s
acrs much of the area.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Active weather pattern to continue through the period with chances
of rain and thunderstorms through the beginning of the weekend and
then again midweek next week.  Previously discussed issues with
model inconsistency still remains with this package.  This, along
with the threat for severe weather today has led to heavy use of
blended guidance for the long term.  Overall agreement in the large
scale pattern through the period means that the mesoscale details
need to be worked out and thus lead to most of uncertainty
throughout the period.   Gibbs

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

A line of severe thunderstorms with wind gusts to 55 kts moving
across eastern Iowa will affect the terminals early this evening.
Outside of the thunderstorms, strong south winds from 25 to 35 kts
will shift to the southwest to west and diminish to less than 15
kts by midnight behind the associated passing front. Otherwise,
conditions will be mainly VFR with a period of low confidence MVFR
ceilings possible late tonight into early Thursday morning. Winds
will become west and then northwest during the day Thursday as
surface low pressure moves into the Great Lakes.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...Sheets
Hazardous weather outlook, May 17, 3:02 AM CDT, 17 hours 58 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
302 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-180815-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
302 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this morning. The main
threats are lightning and hail to penny size.

More widespread thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening. Fast-moving storms could produce damaging winds around 70
mph and tornadoes. A secondary threat is large hail.

A south wind will gust around 40 mph this afternoon. Drivers of
high profile vehicles should use caution.

Area rivers are experiencing flooding. Please see the
latest Flood Statements and Flood Warnings for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

There is a risk of thunderstorms late Thursday night through
Saturday evening. It is too early to determine the severe weather
risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is expected between 2 PM and 10 PM CDT today.

RP Kinney/08

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 17, 8:38 PM CDT, 22 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
838 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     HAIL             GENESEO                 41.45N 90.15W
05/17/2017  E0.50 INCH       HENRY              IL   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

GROSS
Local storm report, May 17, 8:44 PM CDT, 16 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
844 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TSTM WND GST     ASBURY                  42.51N 90.76W
05/17/2017  M60.00 MPH       DUBUQUE            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0720 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ASBURY                  42.51N 90.76W
05/17/2017                   DUBUQUE            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE SPLIT IN HALF AT CORNER OF SUN VALLEY DR AND SPRING
            GREEN ST. ALSO SEVERAL BRANCHES DOWN.

0754 PM     TSTM WND GST     WELTON                  41.91N 90.60W
05/17/2017  M73.00 MPH       CLINTON            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDS SUSTAINED 50-60 MPH FOR 5 MINUTES

0810 PM     TSTM WND GST     PRESTON                 42.05N 90.40W
05/17/2017  E60.00 MPH       JACKSON            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            50 TO 60 MPH SUSTAINED

0833 PM     TSTM WND GST     WSW WARREN              42.49N 90.00W
05/17/2017  E60.00 MPH       JO DAVIESS         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND ESTIMATED 50-60 MPH

&&

GROSS
Local storm report, May 17, 8:47 PM CDT, 13 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
847 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     HAIL             2 NW GENESEO            41.47N 90.18W
05/17/2017  M0.88 INCH       HENRY              IL   COCORAHS

&&

GROSS
Local storm report, May 17, 8:49 PM CDT, 11 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
849 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 WNW ATKINSON          41.44N 90.09W
05/17/2017                   HENRY              IL   PUBLIC

            UNCONFIRMED PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED TO LAW ENFORCEMENT.

&&

TES
Local storm report, May 17, 8:51 PM CDT, 9 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
851 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     TSTM WND GST     HOOPPOLE                41.52N 89.91W
05/17/2017  E40 MPH          HENRY              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOTS OF LIGHTNING

&&

TES
Local storm report, May 17, 8:54 PM CDT, 6 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
854 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     TSTM WND GST     SE CLINTON              41.84N 90.23W
05/17/2017  E60.00 MPH       CLINTON            IA   AMATEUR RADIO

            50 TO 60 MPH WIND.

0850 PM     HAIL             SE CLINTON              41.84N 90.23W
05/17/2017  E0.75 INCH       CLINTON            IA   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

GROSS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Quad Cities, IA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 17, 7:00 PM CDTTornado WarningDVNHenderson, Mercer, Warren45 min
May 17, 7:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNCarroll, Jo Daviess, Mercer, Rock Island61 min
May 17, 7:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNMercer, Rock Island45 min
May 17, 7:37 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNHenry, Mercer, Rock Island, Warren38 min
May 17, 8:05 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNCarroll, Jo Daviess, Stephenson, Whiteside55 min
May 17, 8:05 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedDVNHenry, Mercer, Rock Island40 min
May 17, 8:08 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNHenry, Mercer, Rock Island, Whiteside67 min
May 17, 8:46 PM CDTTornado WarningDVNBureau, Henry, Whiteside23 min
May 17, 9:38 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNBureau, Henry52 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Illinois, 2017Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.