Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Quad Cities, IA

271 
WWUS53 KDVN 172256
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
556 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

IAC011-019-055-095-103-113-183-172345-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-170517T2345Z/
Buchanan IA-Johnson IA-Benton IA-Washington IA-Delaware IA-Linn IA-
Iowa IA-
556 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR BUCHANAN...JOHNSON...EASTERN BENTON...NORTHERN WASHINGTON...
WESTERN DELAWARE...LINN AND EASTERN IOWA COUNTIES...

At 555 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Dysart to Newhall to Kinross, moving northeast at
45 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Cedar Rapids, Iowa City, Independence, Vinton, Manchester, West
Branch, Marion, Coralville, North Liberty, Hiawatha, Mount Vernon,
Robins, Jesup, Center Point, Kalona, Lisbon, Fairfax, Solon, Tiffin
and Ely.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 80 in Iowa between mile markers 224 and 253.
 Interstate 380 between mile markers 1 and 55.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for southeastern,
northeastern and east central Iowa.

LAT...LON 4148 9137 4135 9195 4184 9194 4230 9225
      4230 9206 4264 9208 4265 9135
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 214DEG 39KT 4225 9231 4197 9197 4143 9200 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

ERVIN

570 
WWUS53 KDVN 172304
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
604 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

IAC011-019-055-095-103-113-183-172345-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-170517T2345Z/
Buchanan IA-Johnson IA-Benton IA-Washington IA-Delaware IA-Linn IA-
Iowa IA-
604 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR BUCHANAN...JOHNSON...EASTERN BENTON...NORTHERN WASHINGTON...
WESTERN DELAWARE...LINN AND EASTERN IOWA COUNTIES...

At 604 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near La Porte City to near Palo to near Kinross,
moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Cedar Rapids, Iowa City, Independence, Vinton, Manchester, West
Branch, Marion, Coralville, North Liberty, Hiawatha, Mount Vernon,
Robins, Jesup, Center Point, Kalona, Lisbon, Fairfax, Solon, Tiffin
and Ely.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 80 in Iowa between mile markers 224 and 253.
 Interstate 380 between mile markers 1 and 55.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for southeastern,
northeastern and east central Iowa.

LAT...LON 4148 9137 4135 9195 4184 9194 4230 9225
      4230 9206 4264 9208 4265 9135
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 224DEG 39KT 4232 9212 4203 9182 4142 9192 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

ERVIN

414 
WWUS53 KDVN 172310
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
610 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

IAC011-019-055-095-103-113-183-172345-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-170517T2345Z/
Buchanan IA-Johnson IA-Benton IA-Washington IA-Delaware IA-Linn IA-
Iowa IA-
610 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR BUCHANAN...JOHNSON...EASTERN BENTON...NORTHERN WASHINGTON...
WESTERN DELAWARE...LINN AND EASTERN IOWA COUNTIES...

At 610 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Mount Auburn to near Shellsburg to near Hiawatha
to near Kinross, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Cedar Rapids, Iowa City, Independence, Vinton, Manchester, West
Branch, Marion, Coralville, North Liberty, Hiawatha, Mount Vernon,
Robins, Jesup, Center Point, Kalona, Lisbon, Fairfax, Solon, Tiffin
and Ely.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 80 in Iowa between mile markers 224 and 253.
 Interstate 380 between mile markers 1 and 55.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing widespread
wind damage across Benton County. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a
sturdy structure and stay away from windows.
 
Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for southeastern,
northeastern and east central Iowa.

LAT...LON 4148 9137 4135 9195 4184 9194 4230 9225
      4230 9206 4264 9208 4265 9135
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 211DEG 48KT 4230 9210 4216 9187 4201 9174 4140
9191

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

ERVIN

895 
WWUS53 KDVN 172315
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
615 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

IAC011-019-055-095-103-113-183-172345-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-170517T2345Z/
Buchanan IA-Johnson IA-Benton IA-Washington IA-Delaware IA-Linn IA-
Iowa IA-
615 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR BUCHANAN...JOHNSON...EASTERN BENTON...NORTHERN WASHINGTON...
WESTERN DELAWARE...LINN AND EASTERN IOWA COUNTIES...

At 615 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Brandon to near Urbana to Robins to near Wellman,
moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Cedar Rapids, Iowa City, Independence, Vinton, Manchester, West
Branch, Marion, Coralville, North Liberty, Hiawatha, Mount Vernon,
Robins, Jesup, Center Point, Kalona, Lisbon, Fairfax, Solon, Tiffin
and Ely.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 80 in Iowa between mile markers 224 and 253.
 Interstate 380 between mile markers 1 and 55.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing widespread
wind damage across western Linn County and northeast Benton County. 
SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from 
windows.
 
Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for southeastern,
northeastern and east central Iowa.

LAT...LON 4148 9137 4135 9195 4184 9194 4220 9211
      4230 9206 4264 9208 4265 9135
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 210DEG 48KT 4236 9206 4222 9182 4207 9169 4142
9179

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

ERVIN

082 
WWUS53 KDVN 172322
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
622 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

IAC011-019-055-095-103-113-183-172345-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-170517T2345Z/
Buchanan IA-Johnson IA-Benton IA-Washington IA-Delaware IA-Linn IA-
Iowa IA-
622 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR BUCHANAN...JOHNSON...EASTERN BENTON...NORTHERN WASHINGTON...
WESTERN DELAWARE...LINN AND EASTERN IOWA COUNTIES...

At 622 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles southeast of Jesup to near Quasqueton to near
Alburnett to Richmond, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. 

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Cedar Rapids, Iowa City, Independence, Manchester, West Branch,
Marion, Coralville, North Liberty, Hiawatha, Mount Vernon, Robins,
Jesup, Center Point, Kalona, Lisbon, Fairfax, Solon, Tiffin, Ely and
Atkins.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 80 in Iowa between mile markers 224 and 253.
 Interstate 380 between mile markers 1 and 55.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing widespread
wind damage across Linn county. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a
sturdy structure and stay away from windows.
 
Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for southeastern,
northeastern and east central Iowa.

LAT...LON 4148 9137 4135 9195 4184 9194 4218 9192
      4230 9206 4264 9208 4265 9135
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 217DEG 39KT 4241 9200 4235 9173 4212 9163 4145
9168

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

ERVIN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
224 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Abbreviated early issuance AFD to get ready for convective event.
Water vapor showing neg tilted upper wave on track acrs southeastern
Neb. After potentail convective severe event this afternoon and
evening, a reprieve with cooler conditions on Thu. Then the next
main upstream large cut-off upper low will roll out to the upper
Midwest for a wet end to the week and start to the weekend.
Generally cooler Sunday into earlier next week, with another wave
digging from the northwest for another precip event toward mid next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Will have to watch for isolated to sctrd elevated storms with
hail potential ahead of the "main show" for the rest of the
afternoon, but the main severe weather event currently gathering
steam/"bubbling" in sfc pressure falls max over the MO RVR
Valley. Strong wing of lift into current mesoanalysis-indicated
already strongly sheared environment in place acrs the local area,
supportive of enhanced severe weather risk acrs the area
especially along and west of the MS RVR. Most of latest run
HiRes/CAM's continue to suggest an arching wing or two of broken
line of supercells, mixed with a few strong convective clusters,
moving rapidly at 50-60 MPH in from the west- southwest mainly
after 21z, with prime impact window from 5 PM to 8 or 9 PM CDT
before the brunt of the activity blows eastward. Again speed of
storms to complicate matters and increase danger aspect. Current
CAPEs of 1000-1500 J/KG acrs the region may increase a bit more
through early evening, while brunt of Cap/EML starts to migrate
eastward. This should be adequate for such strong shear profiles
to work with for all modes of severe weather, with tornadoes and
large hail the prime threats. But lingering concern that limited
CAPE for such strong shear profiles, may actually limit a higher
end severe weather event such as if we had 3000+ CAPEs.

The tornado threat may be limited to the initial incoming line as
long as llvl winds have some type of southeasterly direction
component, but then switch to more hail and damaging winds, as llvl
ambient environmental winds go south-southwest making for a more
uniform vertical profile, but still very high in speed shear.

Some isolated to sctrd showers and storms may linger acrs the
northern half of the CWA after the main line exits off to the east-
northeast through midnight, but then mainly dry into Thu morning or
just some wrap-around showers in the far north as upper level
cyclone pivots acrs northern WI and induces wrap-around.

Thu...after wrap around showers decrease in the north, this day
mainly dry and cooler in between two upper cyclones, with varying
amounts of cloud cover. LLVL baroclinicity aligns and tightens along
and south of the DVN CWA into the evening, with northeast post-
frontal boundary layer winds keeping temps in the 60s to low 70s
acrs much of the area.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Active weather pattern to continue through the period with chances
of rain and thunderstorms through the beginning of the weekend and
then again midweek next week.  Previously discussed issues with
model inconsistency still remains with this package.  This, along
with the threat for severe weather today has led to heavy use of
blended guidance for the long term.  Overall agreement in the large
scale pattern through the period means that the mesoscale details
need to be worked out and thus lead to most of uncertainty
throughout the period.   Gibbs

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Brisk southerly sfc winds gusting over 30 KTS along with passing
mainly VFR clouds will be the main story this afternoon before the
main line of storms is expected to move into the local area from
the southwest later this afternoon and evening. An isolated storm to
wdly sctrd storms, though, is possible over the area ahead of the
main line, thus may keep VCNTY wording although that may be heavy
handed if current RADAR trends remain consistent. Have tried to
time a 1-2 hour window when a passing line of severe storms will
move northeastward through the TAF sites again during late
afternoon into early-mid evening. Then VCNTY for a few hours for
lingering isolated to sctrd storms behind the main line through
mid to late evening, then trend dry from midnight into Thu
morning. Sfc winds veering to the west at 10-20 KTS late tonight
into Thu morning, with cigs lowering to low VFR to MVFR in the main
low pressure storm system's wrap around cloud deck.   ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
302 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-180815-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
302 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this morning. The main
threats are lightning and hail to penny size.

More widespread thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening. Fast-moving storms could produce damaging winds around 70
mph and tornadoes. A secondary threat is large hail.

A south wind will gust around 40 mph this afternoon. Drivers of
high profile vehicles should use caution.

Area rivers are experiencing flooding. Please see the
latest Flood Statements and Flood Warnings for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

There is a risk of thunderstorms late Thursday night through
Saturday evening. It is too early to determine the severe weather
risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is expected between 2 PM and 10 PM CDT today.

RP Kinney/08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
521 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E RUBIO               41.22N 91.91W
05/17/2017                   WASHINGTON         IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TIME ESTIMATED - SEVERAL TREES DAMAGED. BOARDS BLOWN OFF
            RAILROAD WALKWAY, GROUND COVERED WITH LEAVES

&&

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
522 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 PM     HAIL             3 NE MUSCATINE          41.46N 91.03W
05/17/2017  M1.00 INCH       MUSCATINE          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
523 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     HAIL             3 S DURANT              41.56N 90.91W
05/17/2017  M1.75 INCH       MUSCATINE          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
534 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 E WYANET              41.36N 89.56W
05/17/2017                   BUREAU             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DUST STORM ALONG ROUTE 6 - TRAFFIC BACKED UP DUE TO
            ACCIDENTS

&&

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
547 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MARENGO                 41.80N 92.07W
05/17/2017                   IOWA               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RELAYED FROM DSM - LARGE TREE DOWN

0542 PM     TSTM WND GST     MARENGO                 41.80N 92.07W
05/17/2017  M60 MPH          IOWA               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RELAYED FROM DSM

&&

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
550 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             1 S DIXON               41.73N 90.78W
05/17/2017  E1.00 INCH       SCOTT              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MIX OF DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&