Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Quad Cities, IA

127 
WWUS53 KDVN 300303
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA
Issued by National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1003 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

IAC011-019-055-113-300330-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0133.000000T0000Z-170630T0330Z/
Buchanan IA-Benton IA-Delaware IA-Linn IA-
1003 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CDT 
FOR BUCHANAN...BENTON...AND PORTIONS OF DELAWARE AND LINN
COUNTIES...

At 1002 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Fairbank to near Jesup to Dysart to Toledo, moving
east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Independence, Vinton, Belle Plaine, Jesup, Center Point, Atkins,
Urbana, Fairbank, Palo, Shellsburg, Newhall, Winthrop, Hazleton,
Walker, Blairstown, Van Horne, Keystone, Quasqueton, Norway and
Lamont.

This includes Interstate 380 between mile markers 48 and 55.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4264 9144 4218 9164 4186 9189 4186 9229
      4230 9230 4230 9206 4264 9208
TIME...MOT...LOC 0302Z 272DEG 49KT 4265 9202 4247 9214 4217 9228 4198
9258

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Uttech

702 
WWUS53 KDVN 300315
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA
Issued by National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1015 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

IAC011-019-055-113-300330-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0133.000000T0000Z-170630T0330Z/
Buchanan IA-Benton IA-Delaware IA-Linn IA-
1015 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CDT
FOR BUCHANAN...BENTON...WESTERN DELAWARE AND NORTHWESTERN LINN
COUNTIES...

At 1013 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Hazleton to near Independence to near Vinton to
near Belle Plaine, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. 

SOURCE...Trained spotters have reported up to 60 mph winds with this 
         line of storms. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Independence, Vinton, Belle Plaine, Jesup, Center Point, Atkins,
Urbana, Fairbank, Palo, Shellsburg, Newhall, Winthrop, Hazleton,
Walker, Blairstown, Van Horne, Keystone, Quasqueton, Norway and
Lamont.

This includes Interstate 380 between mile markers 48 and 55.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4264 9144 4218 9164 4186 9189 4186 9229
      4230 9230 4230 9206 4264 9208
TIME...MOT...LOC 0313Z 271DEG 43KT 4259 9188 4247 9193 4219 9198 4197
9232

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Uttech

673 
WWUS53 KDVN 300327
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA
Issued by National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1027 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

IAC011-019-055-113-300336-
/O.EXP.KDVN.SV.W.0133.000000T0000Z-170630T0330Z/
Buchanan IA-Benton IA-Delaware IA-Linn IA-
1027 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR BUCHANAN...BENTON...AND 
PORTIONS OF DELAWARE AND LINN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1030 PM CDT...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe 
limits. Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However 
gusty winds up to 50 mph are still possible with these thunderstorms.

LAT...LON 4264 9144 4218 9164 4186 9189 4186 9229
      4230 9230 4230 9206 4264 9208
TIME...MOT...LOC 0326Z 270DEG 39KT 4258 9174 4246 9179 4218 9184 4196
9218

$$

Uttech

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
628 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Remnant mesoscale convective vortex was evident on KDVN radar as a
comma shaped area of reflectivity just southeast of the Quad
Cities accompanied by mainly light rain showers. The associated
shield of high clouds has held down low level instability with mid
afternoon temperatures only in the mid 70s and light surface
winds. Further to the northwest, a lingering frontal axis
stretched west to east roughly along the Iowa highway 20 corridor.
This was beginning to light up with thunderstorms from north of
Independence to Webster City, then more widely scattered toward a
surface low west of Sioux City. This axis of storms will be the
focus of activity tonight, which should increase as the air mass
further destabilize in the clearing over western IA and eastern
NE and arrival of lift ahead of a strong shortwave moving across
the central Dakotas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Focus remains on the potential for thunderstorms and the
threat of both severe weather and heavy rainfall tonight.
Instability and low level shear will start out much lower than
this time yesterday. Storms that are initiating along the northern
IA boundary and further westward will move into the forecast area
this evening with storms moving east to east-southeast. Low level
instability will increase late this afternoon as the MCV
continues northeast and the late June strong isolation increases
from west to east. Convective models reflect the initial stable
conditions, suppressing the current storms forming to the north
and then suggesting later activity origination as stronger lifts
arrives in western IA later today may move into the forecast area
later this evening. By this time, the severe potential will likely
be more limited, and likely centered mostly on strong winds with
heavy rain also a possibility if storms begin to train along the
boundary that is likely to sag southeast through the region. Based
on KDVN 18z sounding, model PW values appear to be overdone. Have
stayed on the conservative side of model qpf, well below 1 inch
centered over the south, during the most likely period of rain
that looks to be after midnight with the strongest upper forcing.

Friday, the plains low moves through the area, keeping at least
chances for showers and thunderstorms going.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Saturday into Saturday night looks like a break in the active
weather as high pressure moves through. Chances for at least
scattered showers and thunderstorms then resume for Sunday onward.
Model blend pops and temperatures were used throughout, with an
overall signal continuing to show near to perhaps below normal
temperatures. A trend toward what may be more direct track of
upper level systems impacting the area on or around the 4th of
July holiday period, which would suggest a possible return of
severe weather, will be assessed more closely in later forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

A cold front will sweep through the area Friday, and until that
passes, there will be a low threat for a shower or thunderstorm.
There is plenty of moisture around Iowa and Illinois, though
coverage of storms is rather isolated. This moisture should
saturate into a MVFR stratus overcast later tonight, and continue
into Friday morning. Winds will be southerly overnight, less than
10 kts, and will switch to west then northwest as the cold front
passes through during the late morning and afternoon. ERVIN

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Driven by runoff and 24 hour QPF, latest forecasts have pushed
forecast points along much of the Rock River well above flood
stage and flood warnings have been issued. These initial warnings
were for minor flooding at Freeport, major flooding at Como, and
moderate flooding at Joslin and Moline.

Previous discussion...

Recent heavy rainfall of 2-4 inches will
lead to mainly within bank rises on northern HSA tributary rivers,
with minor flooding forecast on the Wapsipinicon river near
DeWitt. Initial runoff has come in under forecast and lends to
concerns that minor flooding main not materialize but will not be
quick to cancel given routed water and potential for more locally
heavy rain next 24 hours. Atmosphere remains conducive for areas
of locally heavy rain of 1-3+ inches next 24 hours, but low
confidence on coverage of storms and placement of heaviest rains
precludes from issuing a flash flood watch. Will need to monitor
closely northeast IA into far northern IL tribs for any additional
heavy rain, which if occurs would be falling on saturated ground
and lead to enhanced risk of localized flash flooding and river
flooding.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Sheets
SHORT TERM...Sheets
LONG TERM...Sheets
AVIATION...Ervin
HYDROLOGY...Sheets/McClure

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities Ia IL
545 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-301045-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
545 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A few severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. The main threats are large hail and damaging
winds, with a secondary threat of an isolated tornado.
Heavy rain is also possible, which could lead to a risk
for flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

There is a chance of thunderstorms on Friday. Severe weather
is not anticipated with these storms.

Thunderstorm chances will return again by early next week, but
it's too early to determine the severe weather potential with
these storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA
Issued by National Weather Service Des Moines IA
454 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

IAZ040-292230-
Buchanan IA-
454 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

Strong thunderstorm impacting portions of Buchanan County.

At 453 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Independence, moving east at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Independence, Winthrop, Quasqueton, Buchanan County Fairgrounds,
Otterville, Wapsipinicon Golf Course and Independence Airport.

LAT...LON 4239 9199 4256 9199 4258 9170 4239 9170
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 266DEG 14KT 4248 9189

Uttech

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA
Issued by National Weather Service Des Moines IA
944 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

IAZ040-041-051-052-063-300330-
Linn IA-Buchanan IA-Delaware IA-Benton IA-Iowa IA-
944 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

A line of strong thunderstorms will affect portions of eastern Iowa
through the next 1 to 2 hours.

At 942 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Waverly to Hudson to near Marshalltown.
Movement was east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Independence, Vinton, Marengo, Belle Plaine, Jesup, Center Point,
Atkins, Walford, Urbana, Dysart, Fairbank, Palo, Shellsburg, Newhall,
Winthrop, Hazleton, Walker, Blairstown, Van Horne and Keystone.

LAT...LON 4227 9161 4176 9189 4182 9230 4230 9230
      4230 9206 4264 9208 4264 9154
TIME...MOT...LOC 0242Z 276DEG 49KT 4276 9237 4242 9243 4197 9289

Uttech