Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Quad Cities, IA

373 
WWUS53 KDVN 230305
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
1005 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

IAC055-230400-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0121.000000T0000Z-170623T0400Z/
Delaware IA-
1005 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE COUNTY...

At 1005 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Manchester,
moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Manchester, Earlville, Delhi, Greeley, Delaware, Oneida, Coffins
Grove Park, Delaware County Fairgrounds and Manchester Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
the Quad Cities.


&&

LAT...LON 4248 9155 4260 9151 4261 9123 4239 9125
TIME...MOT...LOC 0305Z 272DEG 13KT 4252 9147 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SHEETS

111 
WWUS53 KDVN 230322
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
1022 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

IAC055-230328-
/O.CAN.KDVN.SV.W.0121.000000T0000Z-170623T0400Z/
Delaware IA-
1022 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However, heavy rain and 
frequent lightning is still occurring with this thunderstorm.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
the Quad Cities.

LAT...LON 4248 9155 4260 9151 4261 9123 4239 9125
TIME...MOT...LOC 0317Z 272DEG 13KT 4252 9140 

$$

SHEETS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
629 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

At 6 pm CDT, KDVN radar an isolated pocket of spiraling light
rain showers associated with a MCV remnant from last night's
storms over KS entering southeast Iowa. Further north, a band of
weakening showers that previously had a few embedded weak
thunderstorms, reached from the Waterloo area northeast into far
southwest WI. With the main synoptic cold front still well to the
northwest, and a capped environment over the forecast area, these
features will remain weak through early evening and tonight's
anticipated thunderstorms have yet to develop.

Have fine tuned the forecast for these features in updates and
will continue to monitor trends this evening for anticipated
upstream storm development.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

A frontal boundary stretches from central Nebraska northeastward
into northern Iowa and into Southern Wisconsin. Scattered showers
continue north of Interstate 80. Temperatures ranged from the
upper 70s along the Highway 20 corridor to the mid 80s in
southeast Iowa and northeast Missouri. Dewpoints were in the upper
60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

The main forecast concern this period are chances of thunderstorms
tonight into Friday morning. Large scale models are in good
overall agreement and CAMs are resolving the current features a
little better.

Models depict a cold front sliding southeastward across the region
from basically 06 utc to about 09 UTC Friday. The best lift is
slightly offset from the convergence along the front and the best
RH. Surface base CAPE is currently ranging from 1500 to 2500 J/kg
across the region. The better 0 to 6 km shear is just ahead of the
front and will probably need the arrival of the front to initiate
storms across the north and then move southeastward with the front
across the region. The main threats will be hail and winds ranging
from 60 to 70 MPH. For these reasons, there is slight risk of
severe thunderstorms across the region. The convergence of the
front and synoptic lift will be needed to overcome the CAP to our
north and develop thunderstorms that will move into our region.
There is also an isolated flash flood threat with increasing deep
moisture.

This is expected to be a progressive system with the front moving
through and high pressure building into the region for the end of
the work week. Temperatures will be slightly below normal for
Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.Mainly dry, and exceptionally pleasant conditions will be found
from Friday through Monday, as a seasonally strong upper trof digs
over the eastern 1/3 of the country. This upper trof will draw down
a surface high from central Canada, with dry dewpoints in the 40s
and 50s, and highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s over the upper Midwest.
There should be a daily increase in cumulus during the afternoon
hours each day, and with some passing upper energy, some isolated to
scattered showers and weak thunderstorms are possible. However,
despite this rain threat, the days should be viewed as dry days for
the most part. Any rain should quickly evaporate within a few
minutes of falling in the dry air.

Moving on to mid week, after a period of moderation under the high,
moisture is expected to return to the Midwest for Tuesday through
Friday as a series of waves pass through in zonal flow aloft. The
GFS/GEM/and EC all hit the area with a at least 1 if not multiple
MCS during this period. With a sustained southerly flow headed into
the warm front during that period, PWAT values probably will be
seasonally high given the convergence into the upper Midwest.
Therefore, a seasonal risk for both severe weather and heavy rains
is expected in this time frame. As to what days that occur, and
whether it is multiple events, or just one, is going to have to wait
until the pattern evolves.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

A cold front moving through the forecast area tonight is expected
to develop an organized line of thunderstorms, some of which could
produce large hail and damaging winds. At any given TAF site,
there will likely be a less than 2 hour window of thunderstorms,
but current forecasts will have longer periods of thunderstorms
mentioned due to low confidence in timing. After the storms move
through, some forecast models are suggesting MVFR or even IFR
ceilings. This appears to be overly pessimistic and for now will
keep post-frontal clouds in VFR range.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Sheets
SYNOPSIS...Cousins
SHORT TERM...Cousins
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Sheets

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
506 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-231930-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
506 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Heat index readings will be as high as 90 to 95 through early
evening.

A cold front will move southeastward across the region tonight
with widespread thunderstorms expected. Some of these
thunderstorms are expected to be severe mainly between 7 PM and
3 AM. The main threats will be large hail and damaging winds of
60 to 70 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
838 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

IAC019-230230-
Buchanan-
838 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN BUCHANAN COUNTY UNTIL
930 PM CDT...

At 837 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Hazleton, or 7
miles north of Independence, moving east at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Independence, Fairbank, Winthrop, Hazleton, Lamont, Aurora, Stanley,
Winthrop Golf Course, Wapsipinicon Golf Course, Fontana County Park,
Buchanan County Fairgrounds, Otterville, Jakway Park, Fontana Park
and Littleton.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4242 9165 4248 9200 4264 9205 4264 9164
TIME...MOT...LOC 0137Z 273DEG 11KT 4257 9189

SHEETS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
910 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

IAC019-055-230300-
Buchanan-Delaware-
910 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN BUCHANAN AND
NORTHWESTERN DELAWARE COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

At 910 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Aurora, or 10
miles northeast of Independence, moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Manchester, Edgewood, Winthrop, Lamont, Aurora, Dundee, Masonville,
Stanley, Winthrop Golf Course, Delaware County Fairgrounds,
Manchester Airport, Coffins Grove Park, Baileys Ford Park, Backbone
State Park and Jakway Park.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4243 9137 4249 9182 4264 9184 4265 9157
      4264 9151 4265 9137
TIME...MOT...LOC 0210Z 271DEG 15KT 4256 9172

SHEETS