Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Quad Cities, IA

323 
WWUS53 KDVN 180112
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
812 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

MOC045-199-180145-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0119.000000T0000Z-170618T0145Z/
Scotland MO-Clark MO-
812 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN SCOTLAND AND SOUTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTIES...

At 811 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Wyaconda, or 13
miles west of Kahoka, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Wyaconda, South Gorin, St. Patrick, Etna, Neeper, Fairmont and
Antioch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

This is a dangerous storm. Prepare immediately for large destructive
hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should
move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from windows.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4026 9195 4030 9195 4030 9206 4033 9210
      4044 9196 4025 9152
TIME...MOT...LOC 0111Z 308DEG 25KT 4036 9195 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

08

529 
WWUS53 KDVN 180119
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
819 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

MOC045-199-180145-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0119.000000T0000Z-170618T0145Z/
Scotland MO-Clark MO-
819 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN SCOTLAND AND SOUTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTIES...

At 818 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Wyaconda, or 11
miles southwest of Kahoka, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Wyaconda, South Gorin, St. Patrick, Etna, Neeper, Fairmont and
Antioch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

This is a dangerous storm. Prepare immediately for large destructive
hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should
move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from windows.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4026 9195 4030 9195 4030 9206 4033 9210
      4044 9196 4025 9152
TIME...MOT...LOC 0118Z 308DEG 25KT 4033 9189 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

08

005 
WWUS53 KDVN 180123 RRA
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
823 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

MOC045-199-180145-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0119.000000T0000Z-170618T0145Z/
Scotland MO-Clark MO-
823 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN SCOTLAND AND SOUTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTIES...

At 823 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Colony, or 12
miles southwest of Kahoka, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Wyaconda, South Gorin, St. Patrick, Etna, Neeper, Fairmont and
Antioch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

This is a dangerous storm. Prepare immediately for large destructive
hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should
move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from windows.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4026 9195 4030 9195 4030 9206 4033 9210
      4044 9196 4025 9152
TIME...MOT...LOC 0123Z 302DEG 28KT 4030 9189 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

08

592 
WWUS53 KDVN 180130
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
830 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

MOC199-180139-
/O.CAN.KDVN.SV.W.0119.000000T0000Z-170618T0145Z/
Scotland MO-
830 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN SCOTLAND COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
northeastern Missouri.

LAT...LON 4026 9195 4043 9195 4025 9152
TIME...MOT...LOC 0129Z 308DEG 25KT 4027 9184 

$$

MOC045-180145-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0119.000000T0000Z-170618T0145Z/
Clark MO-
830 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTY...

At 829 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles east of
Colony, or 12 miles southwest of Kahoka, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Wyaconda, St. Patrick, Fairmont, Neeper and Antioch. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

This is a dangerous storm. Prepare immediately for large destructive
hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should
move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from windows.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4026 9195 4043 9195 4025 9152
TIME...MOT...LOC 0129Z 308DEG 25KT 4027 9184 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

08

863 
WWUS53 KDVN 180146
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
846 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

MOC045-180156-
/O.EXP.KDVN.SV.W.0119.000000T0000Z-170618T0145Z/
Clark MO-
846 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.  However small
hail and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
northeastern Missouri.

LAT...LON 4026 9195 4043 9195 4025 9152
TIME...MOT...LOC 0146Z 308DEG 25KT 4020 9173 

$$

08

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
654 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

At 19Z water vapor imagery indicated a potent shortwave trough
over western south Dakota which was moving into and flattening out
the ridge over the upper Midwest. Plentiful cloud cover was seen
ahead of this trough across Iowa as a front was settled in from
south central Iowa into northern Illinois. A few showers had
developed along this boundary by mid afternoon, with areas to the
south seeing an extensive cumulus field.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Today's forecast focus is on thunderstorm chances yet this
afternoon and this evening. Beyond this evening, cooler weather is
in store for the area following the passage of a cold front.

The frontal boundary that is currently located from south central
Iowa through near KCID to KRFD will be the focus of thunderstorm
activity over the next 6 hours.

The shortwave trough over South Dakota will quickly shift east
into Iowa through 06Z tonight. Ahead of this disturbance, deep
layer shear will increase as has been ongoing already across the
region as 19Z mesoanalysis from SPC indicates 0-6km shear values
now approaching 40kts across much of Iowa from 20kts as was being
measured earlier today. Still questioning when the cap will break
to see if storms can tap into the 2000-3500 J/kg of surface based
CAPE. Forecast soundings indicate this will occur around 21Z.
Assuming this plays out and initiation occurs in the next several
hours thoughts are that cells will be able to organize and
strengthen, keeping a severe threat for the southeast 1/3 to 1/2
of the forecast area. How widespread the threat will be remains to
be seen as cells may be more isolated to scattered in nature.

Later this evening as the shortwave moves closer bringing more
significant forcing, activity will likely increase, but by this
time, the front will have moved south far enough and low level
forcing is focused into portions of Missouri into western to
southwest Illinois, so expectations are for the large line of
significant to severe storms that develops to be south of the
forecast area. While an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, the
primary threats with these storms will be damaging winds and
large hail.

If the initial storms are slower moving or if
there are any training storms, there is potential for heavy rain
as precipitable water values of 1.7 to 1.9 inches are being
observed in the area of concern.

After the front moves through, the airmass will be much changed
with much cooler and drier air taking residence over the area.
Look for highs only in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees with
dewpoints dropping into the 50s and low 60s to make tomorrow feel
much different than the past week. There will be another impulse
of mid-level energy moving across the region on Sunday late
morning through afternoon, so may see enough lift to get some
isolated to scattered showers. Don't expect much rainfall with any
of this activity, but is enough of a chance to add in a mention of
rain and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

A cool down will be seen for the start of the work week with
temperatures rising back to or above normal the second half of the
week. The overall pattern will see numerous disturbances moving
through in the flow aloft that have the potential to create
periods of active weather.

Quiet and dry conditions will be seen Sunday night as high pressure
quickly moves through the Midwest.

On Monday, an upper level disturbance will move through the area.
Moisture is somewhat limited but there may be just enough to
generate some showers and a few thunderstorms. Temperatures will
average below normal.

Monday night looks to be quiet as another high pressure quickly
moves through the Midwest.

Another fast moving upper level disturbance will move through the
area on Tuesday. Moisture is very limited and the forcing is weak.
However, daytime heating may be just enough to generate some rain
showers.

Tuesday night on...

Tuesday night quiet and dry conditions will be seen across the area
as another high pressure moves through the Midwest.

On Wednesday, mainly dry conditions will be seen across the area. A
weak disturbance will move through in the flow aloft. The model
consensus has a slight chance to chance pops for areas north of
highway 30.

Wednesday night/Thursday, a more substantial upper level disturbance
will move through the area in combination with returning moisture.
Internally, the models are suggesting an organized thunderstorm
complex will develop across Iowa and move generally east or east
northeast. Where the thunderstorm complex develops and tracks will
be the key to the overall forecast. Right now the model consensus
has chance to likely pops for Wednesday night and slight chance pops
in the far east and south on Thursday for lingering precipitation.

Thursday night into Friday night the models diverge somewhat on
their respective solutions as to what will occur. There is loose
agreement that several rounds of rain will be possible in the form
of organized thunderstorm complexes. Right now the model consensus
has slight chance to chance pops for the entire area.

On Saturday, the model consensus has dry conditions for the area as
high pressure moves through the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Brief preiods of MVFR conditions are possible until 18/04Z mostly at
MLI and BRL terminals due to thunderstorms. Skies will clear with northwest
and VFR conditions at all terminals by around daybreak or earlier as
a cool front passes with winds gusting 10 to 20 kts during the day
on Sunday.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Brooks
SHORT TERM...Brooks
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...Nichols

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1027 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-181530-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
1027 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

The Storm Prediction Center has an enhanced risk of severe
thunderstorms south of a Wayland, Missouri to Roseville, Illinois
line. To the north of this line there is a slight risk. A rather
strong cold front will be pushing southeast across the area late
this afternoon and evening, providing the trigger for severe
thunderstorms. The primary threat will be very damaging winds up
to 80 mph, hail up to golf ball size and isolated tornadoes. A
secondary threat is isolated flash flooding, especially in
locations that have received heavy rainfall the past couple of
days.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Wednesday night through Friday, periodic rounds of thunderstorms
are expected with a quasi-stationary frontal boundary over the
Midwest. There is the potential for severe thunderstorms but there
is low confidence in timing of these storms this far out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible from 3 pm to 11 pm this afternoon
and evening generally in areas south of a Sigourney, Iowa to
Clinton, Iowa to Milledgeville, Illinois line.

Brooks

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
739 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     HEAVY RAIN       GALVA                   41.17N 90.04W
06/17/2017  M2.50 INCH       HENRY              IL   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY LOCAL BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
742 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             N MEMPHIS               40.46N 92.17W
06/17/2017  M2.00 INCH       SCOTLAND           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VIA THE INTERNET

&&

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
748 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ENE NEW WINDSOR       41.20N 90.44W
06/17/2017  E1.91 INCH       HENRY              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL IN PAST 40 MIN.

&&

GROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
755 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0754 PM     HEAVY RAIN       NEPONSET                41.30N 89.79W
06/17/2017  M1.40 INCH       BUREAU             IL   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY LOCAL BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
759 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     HAIL             HEDRICK                 41.17N 92.31W
06/17/2017  E0.75 INCH       KEOKUK             IA   PUBLIC

&&

BROOKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
801 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0757 PM     HAIL             5 S KAHOKA              40.35N 91.73W
06/17/2017  E1.75 INCH       CLARK              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL MAY HAVE BEEN LARGER THAN GOLF BALLS. BROKE OUT
            WINDOWS IN MULTIPLE CARS.

&&

BROOKS