Areal Flood Warning 9, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
641 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

A surface low sits to the west of DSM and Ames at 200 PM with a
frontal boundry stretching from north of Kansas City
northeastward to Kirksville Missouri and to just south of
Chicago. South of that front dew points were in the mid 60s with
dew points in the lower 60s to the north. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms continued to move northeastward across eastern Iowa
and northwest Illinois. A flood watch remains in effect through 4
AM on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

The main forecast concern this period are chances of showers and
thunderstorms as well as the potential for severe thunderstorms
and heavy rain. Models are in good overall agreement through the
period.

The current thinking is that the surface low in central Iowa will
rapidly move northeastward into northern Michigan and southern
Ontario Sunday. This idea fits with the current pressure falls
across northeast Iowa. This will cause the frontal boundry to our
south to surface northward brining warmer and more moist air
northward. This will help to destabilize the atmosphere. There is
strong and deep shear in place across the region with 0 to 6 km
bulk shear of 55 to 60 knots and 0 to 1 km SRH values of 200 to
300 m^2/S^2 pointing to rapidly rotating storms. The CAPE and MU-
CAPE will be on the lower end for typical severe but good for a
high shear and low cape severe weather. Storms will be moving
quickly and any tornadoes will be brief. For these reasons SPC has
places part of our south of a line from Ottumwa to Sterling in an
Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms with a slight risk to the
north to Dubuque.

CAMS (convection allowing models) show two rounds of potentially
severe thunderstorms this afternoon and this evening.
The window for severe weather will be between now and 11 PM.
Storms will come to an end from west to east start at 06 UTC.

A flash flood watch remain in effect through 4 AM with no additional
 changes to the timing and coverage with this update. Rainfall
amounts of a 0.50 to 0.75 inches has fallen south of a Fairfield
to Galesburg line with 0.75 inches to in excess of 2.50 inches
north of that line. This mornings and forecast soundings continue
to show near record precipitable water which is 200 to 225
percent above normal for this time of year. Showers and
thunderstorms will blossom across the region this evening as 850
mb winds around 50 knots veer into the region. Models continue to
show the deepest moisture and best dynamics in the area now
covered by the flash flood watch.

Expect a blustery day across the region on Sunday by a strong
pressure gradient will exist across the area with the departing
storm system to our northeast and surface high pressure to our
south. Expect northwesterly winds of 20 to 30 MPH through the day.
Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

The main forecast concern this period will chances of precipitation.
In the wake of the departing storm system from Saturday night
into Sunday morning the flow aloft transitions from southwest flow
aloft to northwest flow for the first part of the work week and
then zonal flow for the second half of the work week. Given the
transition away to northwest flow and a transition to a more zonal
flow aloft this would open us to fast moving shortwave energy
moving through the flow.

At this time, the forecast is dry as the moisture is limited. The
next chance of precipitation will be next weekend when a deeper
trough moving through the flow produces showers and thunderstorms
across the region.

Temperatures will be 5 degrees above the normals in the mid 60s.
Frost will be possible on Monday morning with the coldest air of
the season in place across our area. Temperatures on Monday
morning will be in the mid to upper 30s north of Interstate 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions will be seen through 12z/15 as a
storm system moves through the Midwest with SHRA/TSRA. Pockets of
LIFR conditions are likely in the heavier SHRA/TSRA. There is a
potential for LLWS as well. After 12z/15, conditions will slowly
improve to VFR. Low level mechanical turbulence is likely due to
strong northwest winds.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Flash Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Sunday for Benton-Buchanan-
     Cedar-Clinton-Delaware-Dubuque-Iowa-Jackson-Johnson-Jones-
     Keokuk-Linn-Louisa-Muscatine-Scott-Washington.

IL...Flash Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Sunday for Bureau-Carroll-Henry
     IL-Jo Daviess-Mercer-Putnam-Rock Island-Stephenson-
     Whiteside.

MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Cousins
SHORT TERM...Cousins
LONG TERM...Cousins
AVIATION...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
341 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-152045-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
341 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

The Storm Prediction Center has placed an enhanced risk of severe
thunderstorms south of a line from from Fairfield to Sterling
Rockfalls with a slight risk to the north, The main threats from
severe thunderstorms are damaging winds up to 70 MPH and a brief
tornado along with heavy rain.

There is also the risk of widespread heavy rain across the area
through midnight on Sunday. A flood watch for flash flooding
remains in effect through 4 AM on Sunday. Areas south of a line
from Fairfield to Galesburg have already received between 0.50 to
0.75 inches whiles area to the north have received 0.75 inches to
2.50 inches to the north of that line. Heavy rains of 1 to 2
inches remain possible this evening which could cause flash
flooding especially in areas that have received heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Patchy frost is possible early Monday morning, especially along
and north of Interstate 80.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation remains possible this evening.

DC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
543 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

ILC011-073-142315-
Henry-Bureau-
543 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HENRY AND WESTERN
BUREAU COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 543 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Hooppole to near Galva. Movement was east
at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Kewanee, Cambridge, Geneseo, Galva, Walnut, Wyanet, Atkinson,
Sheffield, Annawan, Woodhull, Buda, Hooppole, Neponset, Yorktown,
Manlius, Mineral, Milo, Bishop Hill, New Bedford and Henry County
Fairgrounds.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 80 in Illinois between mile markers 18 and 53.
 Interstate 74 in Illinois near mile marker 33.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4115 8956 4115 8964 4123 8964 4123 8987
      4115 8987 4116 9034 4158 9012 4158 8949
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 261DEG 37KT 4152 8989 4120 9010

MCCLURE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
635 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NE FORT MADISON       40.64N 91.33W
10/14/2017  M3.00 INCH       LEE                IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2.00 INCHES FELL THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

PETERS