Alert archive / Michigan / Winter Storm Warnings in 2017

Winter Storm Warning 1, NWS Detroit, MI

April 6, 201714 counties in Michigan

NWS Detroit, MI issued this winter storm warning at Apr 6, 2017, 4:28 AM EDT for 14 counties in Michigan. It took effect at Apr 6, 2017, 12:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 252 days. 60 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Apr 6, 2017, 4:28 AM EDT (08:28 UTC)
In effect from
Apr 6, 2017, 12:00 PM EDT
Expired
Dec 13, 2017, 11:52 PM EST
In force
252 days
Issued by
NWS Detroit, MI

Counties Genesee County, MI, Huron County, MI, Lapeer County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Macomb County, MI, Midland County, MI, Oakland County, MI, Saginaw County, MI, Saint Clair County, MI, Sanilac County, MI, Shiawassee County, MI, Tuscola County, MI, Washtenaw County, MI, Wayne County, MI

The radar

The Detroit radar (KDTX), 36 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Apr 7, 12:00 AM EDTSNOW 1Milford, MI24 HOUR TOTAL
Apr 7, 6:45 AM EDTSNOW 1.1Yale, MI24 HOUR TOTAL
Apr 7, 7:00 AM EDTSNOW 1Owosso, MI24 HOUR TOTAL
Apr 7, 7:10 AM EDTSNOW 1Bad Axe, MI24 HOUR TOTAL
Apr 7, 7:40 AM EDTSNOW 1.14 Nnw Richmond, MI24 HOUR TOTAL
Apr 7, 8:00 AM EDTSNOW 1.5Flint, MI24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL TAKEN AT FLINT BISHOP AIRPORT
Apr 7, 8:00 AM EDTSNOW 1.94 E White Lake, MI24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL TAKEN AT NWS WHITE LAKE
Apr 7, 8:30 AM EDTSNOW 2.32 W Lapeer, MI24 HOUR TOTAL
Apr 7, 8:40 AM EDTSNOW 1Lexington, MI24 HOUR TOTAL
Apr 7, 10:00 AM EDTSNOW 2.5Ubly, MI24 HOUR TOTAL
Apr 7, 10:15 AM EDTSNOW 32 W Harbor Beach, MI24 HOUR TOTAL
Nov 10, 10:50 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 1.3Ubly, MI4 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL
Nov 12, 7:31 PM ESTSNOW 0.62 W Peck, MI3 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.
Dec 9, 8:15 AM ESTSNOW 1Ann Arbor, MI4 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.
Dec 9, 10:15 AM ESTSNOW 13 E Milford, MI8 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.
Dec 9, 10:30 AM ESTSNOW 1Flint, MI8 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL. MEASURED AT ABC12 STATION
Dec 9, 10:40 AM ESTSNOW 1.2Linden, MI8 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.
Dec 9, 10:45 AM ESTSNOW 0.9Howell, MI9 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.
Dec 9, 11:45 AM ESTSNOW 1Grand Blanc, MI10 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.
Dec 9, 12:00 PM ESTSNOW 1.3Marlette, MI9 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.
Dec 9, 12:00 PM ESTSNOW 1.5Northville, MI8 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.
Dec 9, 1:02 PM ESTSNOW 1Farmington, MI9 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.
Dec 9, 1:43 PM ESTSNOW 1.32 W Peck, MI10 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.
Dec 9, 2:01 PM ESTSNOW 1.9Ann Arbor, MI10 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.
Dec 9, 2:28 PM ESTSNOW 1.2Wyandotte, MI9 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.
Dec 9, 2:35 PM ESTSNOW 1Berkley, MI10 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.
Dec 9, 2:35 PM ESTSNOW 1.4Garden City, MI10 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.
Dec 11, 7:35 PM ESTSNOW 22 Nne Wixom, MI3 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.
Dec 11, 7:45 PM ESTSNOW 2.4Farmington, MI2 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.
Dec 11, 7:52 PM ESTSNOW 1.63 E Milford, MI3 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.
Dec 11, 8:08 PM ESTSNOW 2.3Berkley, MI3 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.
Dec 11, 8:35 PM ESTSNOW 32 Nne Wixom, MI4 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.
Dec 11, 8:40 PM ESTSNOW 4.54 Nne Ypsilanti, MI12 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.
Dec 11, 8:46 PM ESTSNOW 2.8Brighton, MI4 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.
Dec 11, 8:56 PM ESTSNOW 3.5Berkley, MI3 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.
Dec 11, 9:21 PM ESTSNOW 1.6Howell, MI4 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.
Dec 11, 10:18 PM ESTSNOW 3Utica, MI12 HOUR TOTAL.
Dec 11, 10:18 PM ESTSNOW 4Brighton, MI12 HOUR TOTAL.
Dec 11, 10:18 PM ESTSNOW 4Novi, MI12 HOUR TOTAL.
Dec 11, 10:18 PM ESTSNOW 4.5Farmington, MI12 HOUR TOTAL.
Dec 11, 11:30 PM ESTSNOW 4.2Northville, MI13 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL
Dec 12, 12:00 AM ESTSNOW 1.2Midland, MI24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL
Dec 12, 12:00 AM ESTSNOW 1.6Mount Clemens, MI24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL
Dec 12, 12:00 AM ESTSNOW 4.4Garden City, MI14 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL
Dec 12, 12:00 AM ESTSNOW 4.5Milford, MI24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL
Dec 12, 12:00 AM ESTSNOW 4.9Berkley, MI14 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL
Dec 12, 12:14 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 0.7Flint, MI14 HOUR TOTAL
Dec 12, 12:14 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 24 E White Lake, MI14 HOUR TOTAL AT NWS WHITE LAKE
Dec 12, 12:14 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 3.8Romulus, MI14 HOUR TOTAL
Dec 12, 12:14 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 4.7Farmington Hills, MI14 HOUR TOTAL
Dec 12, 2:00 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 4.5Eastpointe, MI16 HOUR TOTAL
Dec 12, 2:00 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 5.6Ann Arbor, MI16 HOUR TOTAL
Dec 12, 4:00 AM ESTSNOW 4Dearborn, MI24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL
Dec 12, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 1.1Flint, MI24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL AT FLINT BISHOP AIRPORT
Dec 12, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 1.9Lake Orion, MI24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL
Dec 12, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 2.24 E White Lake, MI24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL AT THE NWS WHITE LAKE OFFICE
Dec 12, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 2.51 Ne Howell, MI24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL
Dec 12, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 3.11 Ene Roseville, MI24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL
Dec 12, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 4Romulus, MI24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL AT DETROIT METRO AIRPORT
Dec 12, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 5.8Ann Arbor, MI24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 00:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 34 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Detroit, MI at 00:00Z on 2017-04-06Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Detroit, MI at 00:00Z on 2017-04-06The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 367 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
691 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
60 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
367 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
487 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

177 
WWUS43 KDTX 060828
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
428 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

...Hazardous combination of heavy wet snow and wind Today through
Tonight...

MIZ049-054-061630-
/O.UPG.KDTX.WS.A.0001.170406T1400Z-170407T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.WS.W.0001.170406T1600Z-170407T1000Z/
Huron-Tuscola-
Including the cities of Bad Axe and Caro
428 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * Rain will change over to snow during the afternoon as northeast
   wind continues to strengthen and shift north through the day. Heavy
   wet snow is expected to combine with damaging wind gusts by 
   evening and continue overnight. 

 * Storm total snowfall of 5 to 7 inches...locally higher...is
   likely at rates of 1 inch per hour at times...especially
   tonight. 

 * In addition, northeast to north winds are forecast to gust 
   between 40 and 50 MPH today and then over 50 mph tonight to 
   near 60 mph near the Lake Huron shoreline. 

IMPACTS...

 * Accumulation of wet heavy snow driven by strong to damaging
   wind will produce dangerous conditions for travel and outdoor 
activity. 

 * Damage to trees...powerlines...and structures will be possible
   which may lead to power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring.  Significant amounts of
snow are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in
an emergency. If you must travel...keep an extra flashlight...
food...and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

 * Prepare, plan and stay informed. Visit
   http://go.usa.gov/c7kkP

&&

$$

MIZ055-063-061630-
/O.NEW.KDTX.WS.W.0001.170406T1600Z-170407T1000Z/
Sanilac-St. Clair-
Including the cities of Sandusky and Port Huron
428 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * Rain will change over to snow during the afternoon as northeast
   wind continues to strengthen and shift north through the day. Heavy
   wet snow is expected to combine with damaging wind gusts by 
   evening and continue overnight. 

 * Storm total snowfall of 5 to 7 inches...locally higher...is
   likely at rates of 1 inch per hour at times...especially
   tonight. 

 * In addition, northeast to north winds are forecast to gust 
   between 40 and 50 MPH today and then over 50 mph tonight to 
   near 60 mph near the Lake Huron shoreline. 

IMPACTS...

 * Accumulation of wet heavy snow driven by strong to damaging
   wind will produce dangerous conditions for travel and outdoor 
activity. 

 * Damage to trees...powerlines...and structures will be possible
   which may lead to power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring.  Significant amounts of
snow are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in
an emergency. If you must travel...keep an extra flashlight...
food...and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

 * Prepare, plan and stay informed. Visit
   http://go.usa.gov/c7kkP

&&

$$

MIZ047-048-053-061630-
/O.UPG.KDTX.WS.A.0001.170406T1000Z-170407T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.WW.Y.0006.170406T0828Z-170407T0400Z/
Midland-Bay-Saginaw-
Including the cities of Midland, Bay City, and Saginaw
428 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a
Winter Weather Advisory for heavy wet snow and strong wind which 
is in effect until midnight EDT tonight. The Winter Storm Watch is
no longer in effect. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * Rain will change over to snow during the morning and persist
   through the day as strong northeast to north wind gusts become
   more frequent. 

 * Storm total snowfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected with rates of
   1 inch per hour possible at times today before diminishing
   during the evening. 

 * In addition, northeast to north winds are forecast to gust 
   between 40 and 50 MPH, with some higher gusts possible near 
   Saginaw Bay. 

IMPACTS...

 * The potential for rapid accumulation of wet heavy snow may 
   make driving extremely difficult. 

 * The strong winds combined with the heavy snow may lead to 
   very poor visibilities at times. 

 * The heavy wet snow and strong winds may lead to power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow
will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow
covered roads and limited visibilities...and use caution while
driving.

 * Prepare, plan and stay informed. Visit
   http://go.usa.gov/c7kkP

&&

$$

MIZ060-061630-
/O.UPG.KDTX.WS.A.0001.170406T1400Z-170407T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.WW.Y.0006.170406T1600Z-170407T0400Z/
Shiawassee-
Including the city of Owosso
428 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT
EDT TONIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a
Winter Weather Advisory for heavy wet snow and strong wind which 
is in effect until midnight EDT tonight. The Winter Storm Watch is
no longer in effect. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * Rain will change over to snow during the afternoon and persist
   through the day as strong northeast to north wind gusts become
   more frequent. 

 * Storm total snowfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected with rates 
   of 1 inch per hour possible at times today before diminishing 
   during the evening. 

 * In addition, northeast to north winds are forecast to gust
   between 40 and 50 MPH.

IMPACTS...

 * The potential for rapid accumulation of wet heavy snow may 
   make driving extremely difficult. 

 * The strong winds combined with the heavy snow may lead to 
   very poor visibilities at times. 

 * The heavy wet snow and strong winds may lead to power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow
will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow
covered roads and limited visibilities...and use caution while
driving.

 * Prepare, plan and stay informed. Visit
   http://go.usa.gov/c7kkP

&&

$$

MIZ061-062-061630-
/O.NEW.KDTX.WW.Y.0006.170406T1600Z-170407T0400Z/
Genesee-Lapeer-
Including the cities of Flint and Lapeer
428 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT
EDT TONIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a
Winter Weather Advisory for heavy wet snow and strong wind which 
is in effect until midnight EDT tonight. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * Rain will change over to snow during the afternoon and persist
   through the day as strong northeast to north wind gusts become
   more frequent. 

 * Storm total snowfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected with rates 
   of 1 inch per hour possible at times today before diminishing 
   during the evening. 

 * In addition, northeast to north winds are forecast to gust
   between 40 and 50 MPH.

IMPACTS...

 * The potential for rapid accumulation of wet heavy snow may 
   make driving extremely difficult. 

 * The strong winds combined with the heavy snow may lead to 
   very poor visibilities at times. 

 * The heavy wet snow and strong winds may lead to power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow
will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow
covered roads and limited visibilities...and use caution while
driving.

 * Prepare, plan and stay informed. Visit
   http://go.usa.gov/c7kkP

&&

$$

BT
6 follow-up statements
483 
WWUS43 KDTX 061333
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
933 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

...Messy Early Spring Storm...

MIZ049-054-055-070000-
/O.CAN.KDTX.WS.W.0001.170406T1600Z-170407T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.WW.Y.0007.170406T2200Z-170407T0800Z/
Huron-Tuscola-Sanilac-
Including the cities of Bad Axe, Caro, and Sandusky
933 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a
Winter Weather Advisory for occasional heavy snow, which is in 
effect from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Friday. The Winter Storm
Warning has been cancelled. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * A mix of rain and snow will change over to snow during the
   afternoon as north winds continue to strengthen. Wet snow is 
   expected to combine with damaging wind gusts by evening and 
   continue overnight. 

 * Storm total snowfall of 2 to 4 inches...locally higher amounts
   possible. Rates up to an inch per hour are briefly possible. 

 * In addition, north winds are forecast to gust to 50 mph and
   near 60 mph along the Lake Huron shoreline. 

IMPACTS...

 * Accumulation of wet heavy snow driven by strong to damaging
   wind will produce hazardous conditions for travel and outdoor 
   activity. 

 * Damage to trees...powerlines...and structures will be possible
   which may lead to power outages. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow 
will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow 
covered roads and limited visibilities...and use caution while 
driving.

 * Prepare, plan and stay informed. Visit
http://go.usa.gov/c7kkP

&&

$$

MIZ063-061445-
/O.CAN.KDTX.WS.W.0001.170406T1600Z-170407T1000Z/
St. Clair-
Including the city of Port Huron
933 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has cancelled the
Winter Storm Warning. 

Prospects for significant accumulating snow appear far less
likely. Therefore the winter storm warning has been cancelled. A
high wind warning is now in effect.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * Prepare, plan and stay informed. Visit 
   http://go.usa.gov/c7kkP 

&&

$$

MIZ047-048-053-061445-
/O.CAN.KDTX.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-170407T0400Z/
Midland-Bay-Saginaw-
Including the cities of Midland, Bay City, and Saginaw
933 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has cancelled the
Winter Weather Advisory. 

Prospects for significant accumulating snow appear far less
likely. Therefore, the winter weather advisory has been 
cancelled. A wind advisory is now in effect.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * Prepare, plan and stay informed. Visit 
   http://go.usa.gov/c7kkP 

&&

$$

MIZ060>062-061445-
/O.CAN.KDTX.WW.Y.0006.170406T1600Z-170407T0400Z/
Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
Including the cities of Owosso, Flint, and Lapeer
933 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has cancelled the
Winter Weather Advisory. 

Prospects for appreciable accumulating snow appear far less 
likely. Therefore, the winter weather advisory has been 
cancelled. A wind advisory is now in effect.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * Prepare, plan and stay informed. Visit 
   http://go.usa.gov/c7kkP 

&&

$$

MANN
706 
WWUS43 KDTX 130844
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
344 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

...Heavy Snow To Impact The Evening Commute...

MIZ047-053-060>062-068>070-075-076-131645-
/O.UPG.KDTX.WS.A.0002.171213T1500Z-171214T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.WS.W.0001.171213T1500Z-171214T0500Z/
Midland-Saginaw-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-Livingston-Oakland-
Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-
Including the cities of Midland, Saginaw, Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, 
Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, and Detroit
344 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions,
  including during the evening commute. Total snow accumulations
  of 5 to 8 inches are expected with locally higher amounts
  possible. Snowfall rates this afternoon reaching an inch per 
  hour or greater.

* WHERE...Midland, Saginaw, Shiawassee, Genesee, Lapeer, 
  Livingston, Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw and Wayne Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to midnight EST tonight. Peak
  snowfall rates in the late afternoon hours. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for visiblities approaching a
  quarter mile at times. Roads will be snow covered and very
  difficult to travel on. If you must travel this afternoon and
  evening, expect a much longer and stressful commute. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency.

$$

MIZ082-083-131645-
/O.UPG.KDTX.WS.A.0002.171213T1500Z-171214T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.WW.Y.0003.171213T1500Z-171214T0500Z/
Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Adrian and Monroe
344 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions. Total
  snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected with up to 6
  inches possible over northern Monroe county.

* WHERE...Lenawee and Monroe Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to midnight EST tonight. Although
  there could be a break in the snow activity during the afternoon
  hours. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
  times and snow covered roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

$$

MIZ063-131645-
/O.UPG.KDTX.WS.A.0002.171213T1500Z-171214T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.WW.Y.0003.171213T1700Z-171214T1000Z/
St. Clair-
Including the city of Port Huron
344 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions,
  including during the evening commute. Total snow accumulations
  of 4 to 7 inches are expected.

* WHERE...St. Clair County.

* WHEN...From noon today to 5 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
  times and snow covered roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

$$

MIZ048-131645-
/O.NEW.KDTX.WW.Y.0003.171213T1500Z-171214T0500Z/
Bay-
Including the city of Bay City
344 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions, 
  including during the evening commute. Total snow accumulations 
  of 4 to 6 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Bay County.

* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to midnight EST tonight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
  times and snow covered roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

$$

MIZ049-054-055-131645-
/O.NEW.KDTX.WW.Y.0003.171213T1700Z-171214T1000Z/
Huron-Tuscola-Sanilac-
Including the cities of Bad Axe, Caro, and Sandusky
344 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions,
  including during the evening commute. Total snow accumulations
  of 3 to 6 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Huron, Tuscola and Sanilac Counties.

* WHEN...From noon today to 5 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
  times and snow covered roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

$$

SF
544 
WWUS43 KDTX 131602
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1102 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

...Heavy Snow To Impact The Evening Commute...

MIZ063-140615-
/O.UPG.KDTX.WW.Y.0003.171213T1700Z-171214T1000Z/
/O.EXA.KDTX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-171214T0500Z/
St. Clair-
Including the city of Port Huron
1102 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Plan on difficult travel conditions,
  including during the evening commute. Total snow accumulations
  of 5 to 7 inches are expected with locally higher amounts
  possible. Snowfall rates will exceed 1 inch per hour between 3pm
  and 7pm.

* WHERE...St. Clair County.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibility will fall below 1/4 of a mile.
  All roads will be snow-covered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions are occurring. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency.

$$

MIZ047-053-060>062-068>070-075-076-140500-
/O.CON.KDTX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-171214T0500Z/
Midland-Saginaw-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-Livingston-Oakland-
Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-
Including the cities of Midland, Saginaw, Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, 
Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, and Detroit
1102 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Plan on difficult travel conditions,
  including during the evening commute. Widespread snowfall
  accumulation of 5 to 7 inches with a band of 6 to 9 inches
  possible. Snowfall rates will exceed 1 inch per hour between 3pm
  and 7pm and will occasionally reach 2 inches per hour.

* WHERE...Midland, Saginaw, Shiawassee, Genesee, Lapeer, 
  Livingston, Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw and Wayne Counties.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibility will fall below 1/4 of a mile.
  All roads will be snow-covered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions are occurring. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency.

$$

MIZ082-083-140500-
/O.CON.KDTX.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-171214T0500Z/
Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Adrian and Monroe
1102 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow. Plan on slippery road conditions, including during
  the evening commute. Snow accumulation of 2 to 5 inches is
  expected.

* WHERE...Lenawee and Monroe Counties. The highest totals will be
  in the northern portions of these counties.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
  times. Roads will likely become snow-covered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

$$

MIZ048-140500-
/O.CON.KDTX.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-171214T0500Z/
Bay-
Including the city of Bay City
1102 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow. Plan on difficult travel conditions, including
  during the evening commute. Around 5 inches of accumulation is
  possible through today. An additional 1 to 2 inches is possible
  overnight due to lake effect snow.

* WHERE...Bay County.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at 
  times. Roads will become snow-covered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

$$

MIZ049-054-055-140615-
/O.CON.KDTX.WW.Y.0003.171213T1700Z-171214T1000Z/
Huron-Tuscola-Sanilac-
Including the cities of Bad Axe, Caro, and Sandusky
1102 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Plan on slippery road conditions, including during
  the evening commute. Daytime snow accumulation of 2 to 5 inches.
  An additional 1 to 2 inches may be possible in some areas
  overnight due to lake effect snow.

* WHERE...Huron, Tuscola and Sanilac Counties.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at 
  times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

$$
636 
WWUS43 KDTX 132056
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
356 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

...Heavy Snow To Impact The Evening Commute...

MIZ047-053-060>063-068>070-075-076-140500-
/O.CON.KDTX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-171214T0500Z/
Midland-Saginaw-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-
Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-
Including the cities of Midland, Saginaw, Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, 
Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, and Detroit
356 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Plan on difficult travel conditions,
  including during the evening commute. Several additional inches
  of accumulation are expected bringing storm totals to 6 to 9
  inches. The highest totals will be between I-69 and I-96.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Michigan including Metro Detroit.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Roads will become snow-covered. Visibility
  to fall to 1/4 mile or less.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions are occurring. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency.

$$

MIZ082-083-140500-
/O.CON.KDTX.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-171214T0500Z/
Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Adrian and Monroe
356 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow. Plan on slippery road conditions, including during
  the evening commute. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 
  inches are expected.

* WHERE...Lenawee and Monroe Counties.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at 
  times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

$$

MIZ048-140500-
/O.CON.KDTX.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-171214T0500Z/
Bay-
Including the city of Bay City
356 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow. Plan on slippery road conditions, including during
  the evening commute. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 
  inches are expected.

* WHERE...Bay County.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at 
  times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

$$

MIZ049-054-055-140500-
/O.CON.KDTX.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-171214T1000Z/
Huron-Tuscola-Sanilac-
Including the cities of Bad Axe, Caro, and Sandusky
356 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Plan on slippery road conditions, including during
  the evening commute. An additional 3 to 5 inches of accumulation
  is expected.

* WHERE...Huron, Tuscola and Sanilac Counties.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at 
  times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

$$
351 
WWUS43 KDTX 140118
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
818 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

...Heavy Snow To Impact The Evening Commute...

MIZ047-053-060>063-068>070-075-076-140500-
/O.CON.KDTX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-171214T0500Z/
Midland-Saginaw-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-
Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-
Including the cities of Midland, Saginaw, Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, 
Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, and Detroit
818 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Light to moderate snow accumulating to an additional 2
  inches or less leading to storm total snowfall of 6 to 10
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Michigan.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow-covered roads and visibilities of 1
  mile or less.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions are occurring. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency.

$$

MIZ082-083-140500-
/O.CON.KDTX.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-171214T0500Z/
Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Adrian and Monroe
818 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Light to moderate snow accumulating to an additional 2
  inches or less leading to storm totals of 2 to 4 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Michigan.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow-covered roads and visibilities of 1
  mile or less.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

$$

MIZ048-140500-
/O.CON.KDTX.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-171214T0500Z/
Bay-
Including the city of Bay City
818 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Light to briefly moderate lake effect snow leading to
  additional snow accumulation of 2 inches or less.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Michigan.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow-covered roads and visibilities of 1/2
  mile at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

$$

MIZ049-054-055-141000-
/O.CON.KDTX.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-171214T1000Z/
Huron-Tuscola-Sanilac-
Including the cities of Bad Axe, Caro, and Sandusky
818 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Diminishing light snow giving way to localized moderate lake
  effect snow. Additional snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches, 
  locally 3 through late tonight.

* WHERE...Huron, Tuscola and Sanilac Counties.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Roads may become snow-covered. Visibility
  near 1/2 mile at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

$$
026 
WWUS43 KDTX 140452
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1152 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017


MIZ063-141200-
/O.CAN.KDTX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-171214T0500Z/
/O.EXB.KDTX.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-171214T1200Z/
St. Clair-
Including the city of Port Huron
1152 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a
Winter Weather Advisory for Lake Effect Snow, which is in effect 
until 7 AM EST Thursday. The Winter Storm Warning has been 
cancelled. 

* WHAT...Widespread snow has ended, but lake effect snow showers
  will move in overnight, producing a dusting to 2 inches, with
  locally 3 inches possible by 7 AM. 

* WHERE...St. Clair County.

* WHEN...through 7 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Roads will be snow-covered with
  visibilities reduced in localized snow showers. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow 
will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow 
covered roads and limited visibilities...and use caution while 
driving.

 * Prepare, plan and stay informed. Visit
http://go.usa.gov/c7kkP

&&

$$

MIZ047-053-060>062-068>070-075-076-140600-
/O.CAN.KDTX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-171214T0500Z/
Midland-Saginaw-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-Livingston-Oakland-
Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-
Including the cities of Midland, Saginaw, Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, 
Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, and Detroit
1152 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has cancelled the
Winter Storm Warning. 

Snow will continue to taper off shortly after midnight, any
additional accumulations will be less than half an inch.

$$

MIZ048-082-083-140600-
/O.CAN.KDTX.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-171214T0500Z/
Bay-Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Bay City, Adrian, and Monroe
1152 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has cancelled the
Winter Weather Advisory. 

Snow will continue to taper off shortly after midnight, any
additional accumulations will be less than half an inch.

$$

MIZ049-054-055-141000-
/O.CON.KDTX.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-171214T1000Z/
Huron-Tuscola-Sanilac-
Including the cities of Bad Axe, Caro, and Sandusky
1152 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow showers overnight will lead to
  additional snow accumulations of a dusting to 2 inches. 

* WHERE...Huron, Tuscola and Sanilac Counties.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Roads will be snow-covered with
  visibilities reduced in locaalized snow showers. 
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

$$

SF

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Apr 6, 12:04 AM EDT, 4 hours 24 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 6, 12:04 AM EDT, 4 hours 24 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1204 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

.AVIATION...

Deep layer moisture now entrenched over southeast Michigan, the
result being widespread rainfall across the northern TAF sites with
an eventual transition toward drizzle as a mid level dry slot
impinges on the region.  Main point of uncertainty remains timing
the transition to snow at MBS this morning.  Latest model trends
insist on a transition between 08z-10z, counter to current
temperatures will remain near 40 degrees.  Will continue to imply
this uncertainty with simply a mix mention until closer to 12z,
before firmly shifting to all snow.  Otherwise, the morning period
marked by a downturn in ceiling to IFR.  Gusty northeast wind
overnight becomes north-northwest and strengthens on Thursday. Gusts
in excess of 35 knots become attainable by afternoon.  Rain
transitioning to snow all locations through the afternoon and
evening periods as deformation forcing pivots back through the
region.  This in combination with the wind will likely support
periods of LIFR visibility restrictions in blowing/falling snow.

For DTW...Precipitation to remain as rain through early afternoon
Thursday.  Potential rain/snow mix thereafter, with transition
toward all snow with some accumulation likely beyond sunset Thursday
evening.  Gusty northeast winds tonight/early Thur, increasing
further while shifting to N-NW by afternoon.  Gusts in excess of 35
knots possible, leading to crosswind considerations.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling 5000 ft or less.

* Low for cigs less than 500 ft and vsbys less than 1/2SM.

* High for ptype as rain through 18z Thursday, then low for
  transition to snow late Thursday.

* Low for north-northwest winds exceeding crosswind thresholds
  Thursday afternoon/evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 939 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

UPDATE...

Steady deep layer moisture feed across the immediate downstream
flank of the eastward translating dynamic spring system translating
into widespread rainfall this evening.  Earlier heavier bursts with
elevated thunder across the south has exited, with a current
transition toward a steady/light intensity precipitation field.
Secondary uptick in coverage/intensity now tied to the main pv
filament and backed by increasing low level jet support now lifting
through north-central IN.   As this forcing works into the local
area, will await for possible organization/strengthening of the
existing mid level frontal boundary draped overhead during the early
morning period.  Placement...vigor and longevity of this ascent
carries some uncertainty, as the trailing mid level dry slot
eventually punches northward and this axis may slip north of the Tri-
Cities.

Midland/Bay counties reside in the most tenuous position
overnight/Thursday morning...as this forcing works with an
increasingly marginal low level thermal environment.  Worth noting
current temperatures at Midland/MBS are still hovering near 40
degrees...or a couple degrees warmer than virtually all model
guidance would suggest for 01z.  Importance lies with the razor thin
margin here between a period of moderate rainfall and a switch to
heavy wet accumulating snow.  Analysis of the RAP/HRRR would suggest
a hedge toward a slightly warmer thermal profile, and subsequently a
slower transition to snow, is favored.  This remains counter to the
colder NAM, which holds the line on a more aggressive turn toward
accumulating snow as dynamic/evaporative cooling processes within
the fgen band act to lower temps much faster.  At this stage, will
continue to allow the watch headline across the north speak to both
the potential and uncertainty, as a long duration event lasting into
Thursday night with 6+ inches is still possible even should the
onset/early stages prove more lackluster.  Current trends do support
a slight shift back in the watch onset timing.

PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

DISCUSSION...

The rain which has been overspreading srn/cntl Lower Mi this
afternoon marks the beginning of what will be a prolonged
precipitation event for Southeast Michigan. Although there is
reasonable agreement in the overall large scale features at play,
uncertainty in the meso scale details and particularly the thermal
profiles still yield a somewhat high degree of uncertainty as to
potential snowfall amounts.

Recent water vapor imagery shows a plume of deep layer moisture
streaming into southern Mi. This moisture is interacting with the
mid level frontal boundary draped across the region. The upper low
now over the mid MS Valley will rotate into srn Lower Mi overnight.
Se Mi will remained positioned within a region of very good upper
level divergence associated with a coupled upper jet. The response
will be a tightening of the mid level frontal boundary right over Se
Mi. The approach of the upper low will also lead to very good mid
level PV advection. This coupled with a near continued stream of
deep layer moisture transport, forcing 850mb dewpoints near +7C into
the mid level frontal ascent, will support widespread precip during
the night. A deep convectively unstable layer above the frontal
boundary will support a rather robust fgen response. This is
expected to occur somewhere along/north of a line from Howell to
Sandusky. Nighttime rainfall amounts could easily exceed an inch in
these locals. This along with the additional precipitation Thursday
has prompted a flood watch in these locals (refer to the hydro
section for more details).

Model soundings, particularly the NAM, suggest some robust
thermodynamic cooling across the northern sections of the mid level
FGEN tonight (tri cities region). There is some concern that the
models may be a little too agressive with this given that the
resevoir of cold air is still fairly far to the north. This may
especially be the case if the mid level forcing sets up a little
farther south. If, however, the column in the tri cities does
rapidly cool tonight, heavy wet snow is likely to develop. Given the
uncertainty, the winter storm watch will remain in place for the
time being.

The upper low will rotate into the ern Great Lakes on Thursday. As
the base of the trough takes on a negative tilt into the mid
Atlantic on Thursday, an Atlantic feed of moisture into the warm
conveyor will feed into the mid level deformation axis, which will
rotate across Se Mi during the course of the day. Continued
thermodymaic cooling and some advection of colder air from the north
will change the rain over to snow from west to east across the
forecast area during the day. The main uncertainty at this point is
how far into Se Mi this mid level dry slot works into the area late
tonight into Thurs morning and to what extent this may fracture the
mid level deformation (at least for the first half of Thurs). As the
system rotates across the ern Great Lakes, the mid level deformation
should intensify/redevelop over Se Mi before exiting to the east
Thurs night. The thermodynamic profile will support a period of very
good snowfall rates once the change over occurs. The region that is
expected to see the most snow and longest period of deformation
forcing is generally along and north of an Owosso to Bad Axe line.
These locals have been added to the winter storm watch for the
potential for over 6 inches of snow. If the change over occurs
across the Saginaw Valley a little earlier, snow totals could
feasibly approach a foot over Midland/Bay counties. The remainder of
the area should see anywhere from an inch to possibly 4 inches Thus
afternoon/evening.

The final aspect of this storm system will be the winds. A
tightening northeast gradient associated with the deepening sfc low
will occur through the night. Further deepening of this system as it
rotates across the ern Great Lakes on Thursday (980mb over upstate
New York by 00Z Fri) raises concerns for strong winds. Model
soundings show 50-60 knot winds in the 950-800mb layer tonight
through Thurs night. Boundary layer stability will limit wind gusts
over land through at least late Thurs morning. The exception to this
will be downwind of Lake Huron and Saginaw Bay where a high wind
watch is now in effect for gusts possibly up to 60 MPH by Thurs
morning. Boundary layer growth and mixing will be a little more
favorable for strong winds Thurs afternoon into Thurs night. Inland
from the Lake Huron, this is likely to support advisory level wind
gusts (45 to 50 MPH).

The drying trend will continue for the weekend, as surface high
pressure and upper level ridging persists over the region. The
exception will be over the northern thumb areas, where the next
approaching system ushers in chances of light rain, as soon as
Sunday morning. Rain spreads over the remaining CWA on Monday with
wet conditions persisting through most of Tuesday. At this time,
high pressure and dry conditions are anticipated to return by
Tuesday night and remain over the area through Thursday.
Temperatures will increase through the initial few days of the
extended period, with afternoon highs trending well above the
seasonal norm. High temps drop back into the low 50's by Wednesday
as wind directions transition back to the northwest.

MARINE...

The focus for marine interests will be on the next low pressure
system set to move into the Ohio Valley by tonight and toward the
west end of Lake Erie by Thursday morning. This system is projected
to strongly intensify during Thursday as the center moves toward
western New York by Thursday evening resulting in high end gales
over all marine areas with a good chance of storm force gusts across
Saginaw Bay and southern Lake Huron during this period. Expect entry
level 35 knot northeast gales to develop even tonight over the Bay
and central Lake Huron but stability will be a limiting factor
before sunrise Thursday. After that, model soundings indicate colder
air moving in through the low levels over the Bay and southern Lake
Huron that will produce an unstable profile and enough mixing for
storm force gust potential by late Thursday morning through Thursday
night while direction gradually backs toward the north. The headline
summary is for a gale warning tonight for Saginaw Bay and central
Lake Huron. A storm watch is then in effect Thursday through Friday
morning for Saginaw Bay and for Lake Huron south of Presque Isle.
Gale watches remain in effect for all other marine areas to the
north and south of the storm watch.

HYDROLOGY...

A long duration precipitation event is beginning this afternoon and
will persist into early Friday morning. It will begin as rain before
mixing with or change to snow late tonight through Thursday. Total
liquid equivalent precipitation from this system is expected to
range from 1 to 3 inches over about 36 hours with the higher totals
expected across the Saginaw Valley and Thumb regions. This amount of
precipitation combined with rainfall over the past week will cause
streams and rivers across the region to rise, approaching and/or
exceeding flood stage late in the week. In addition, already
saturated soils will have little room to absorb additional rainfall
thus minor flooding of low lying areas and ponding on roadways will
be possible. A flood watch will be issued to account for this
potential. Even if the bulk of the precipitation falls as snow
across the Saginaw Valley, it will rapidly melt Friday into
Saturday, so rises on rivers are still expected but will be delayed
a couple days.

In addition to rainfall runoff, prolonged strong northeast winds on
Saginaw Bay is likely to slow the discharge of water from the
Saginaw River. This may result in minor flooding along the river
Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Flood Watch through this evening for MIZ047>049-053>055-060>062-068.

     Winter Storm Watch from 10 AM EDT this morning through this evening
     for MIZ049-054-060.

     Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Friday
     for MIZ063.

     High Wind Watch from 4 AM EDT early this morning through late
     tonight for MIZ048-049-053>055-063.

     Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for MIZ048-054.

     Winter Storm Watch from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening
     for MIZ047-048-053.

Lake Huron...Storm Watch from 4 AM EDT early this morning through Friday morning
     for LHZ362-363-441>443-462>464.

     Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT early this morning for LHZ362-363-421-
     422-441-442-462-463.

     Storm Watch from 4 AM EDT early this morning through this evening
     for LHZ421-422.

     Gale Warning from 4 AM early this morning to 10 AM EDT Friday for
     LHZ361.

Lake St Clair...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT Friday for
     LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT Friday for
     LEZ444.

&&

AVIATION.....MR
UPDATE.......MR
DISCUSSION...SC/DE
MARINE.......CB
HYDROLOGY....DRK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 6, 4:26 AM EDT, 2 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
426 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

MIZ068>070-075-076-082-083-070830-
Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
426 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
High wind advisory in effect today and tonight for sustained winds 20
to 30 mph with gusts to 45mph. Rain will also mix and change to snow
during the day then diminish late tonight. Several inches of heavy
wet snow is possible. Highs winds and heavy wet snow may cause
problems to trees, utility poles, etc. Many rivers will also
experience moderate rises with some minor overrunning of banks.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-070830-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-
426 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Lake shore flood advisories, winter storm warnings, winter weather
advisories are in effect.  Please refer to our webiste for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-070830-
Lake St. Clair-
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM
off shore-
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw
Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-
Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
426 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Huron and Lake St Clair.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Gale warnings in effect today and tonight. Storm warnings in effect
tonight for Lake Huron and its nearshores and outer Saginaw Bay.
Please refer to the latest marine forecast for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

DRC

The office that day

Everything else NWS Detroit, MI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 6, 4:03 AM EDTStorm WarningDTX24 hr
Apr 6, 4:28 AM EDTWinter Weather AdvisoryDTXBay, Genesee, Lapeer, Midland, Saginaw, Shiawassee5 hr
Apr 6, 4:47 AM EDTWind AdvisoryDTXBay, Genesee, Lapeer, Lenawee, Livingston, Macomb and 8 more23 hr
Apr 6, 5:13 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningDTXSaginaw, Shiawassee5 days
Apr 6, 9:33 AM EDTHigh Wind WarningDTXHuron, Saint Clair, Sanilac18 hr
Apr 6, 9:33 AM EDTWinter Weather AdvisoryDTXHuron, Sanilac, Tuscola12 hr
Apr 6, 10:41 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningDTXGenesee25 hr
Apr 6, 10:41 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningDTXGenesee42 hr
Apr 6, 10:41 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningDTXSaginaw65 hr
Apr 6, 11:17 AM EDTLakeshore Flood WarningDTXBay, Tuscola8 hr

Nearby

Winter Storm Warnings in Michigan, 2017Every winter storm warning in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.