Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Detroit, MI

452 
WWUS53 KDTX 232252
SVSDTX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
652 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

MIC049-087-157-232330-
/O.CON.KDTX.SV.W.0034.000000T0000Z-170723T2330Z/
Tuscola MI-Lapeer MI-Genesee MI-
652 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN TUSCOLA...NORTHWESTERN LAPEER AND NORTHEASTERN
GENESEE COUNTIES...

At 651 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles southwest of Cass City to Otisville, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

These severe storms will be near...
  Columbiaville around 705 PM EDT. 
  Kingston around 710 PM EDT. 
  Lapeer around 730 PM EDT. 

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Columbiaville, Cass City, North Branch, Lapeer, Mayville, Otisville,
Kingston, Otter Lake, Clifford and East Dayton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4348 8311 4324 8312 4300 8322 4313 8359
      4314 8357 4318 8355 4321 8353 4360 8323
      4361 8311
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 294DEG 18KT 4351 8324 4319 8351 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SC

875 
WWUS53 KDTX 232303
SVSDTX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
703 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

MIC049-157-232313-
/O.CAN.KDTX.SV.W.0034.000000T0000Z-170723T2330Z/
Tuscola MI-Genesee MI-
703 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN TUSCOLA AND
NORTHEASTERN GENESEE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4300 8322 4309 8346 4316 8346 4323 8341
      4324 8335 4326 8335 4326 8312
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 309DEG 28KT 4313 8332 

$$

MIC087-232330-
/O.CON.KDTX.SV.W.0034.000000T0000Z-170723T2330Z/
Lapeer MI-
703 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN LAPEER COUNTY...

At 703 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Columbiaville,
moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

this severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northwestern Lapeer County, including the following locations:
Columbiaville, North Branch, Lapeer and Kings Mill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4300 8322 4309 8346 4316 8346 4323 8341
      4324 8335 4326 8335 4326 8312
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 309DEG 28KT 4313 8332 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SC

736 
WWUS53 KDTX 232312
SVSDTX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
712 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

MIC087-232321-
/O.CAN.KDTX.SV.W.0034.000000T0000Z-170723T2330Z/
Lapeer MI-
712 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN LAPEER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However heavy rain is
still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4300 8322 4309 8346 4316 8346 4323 8341
      4324 8335 4326 8335 4326 8312
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 285DEG 15KT 4312 8327 

$$

SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
325 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Regional satellite data show a compact mid level low rotating into
ern Upper Mi/ern Lake Superior. There is good agreement among the
12Z model suite in showing this low advancing into ern Ontario/SW
Quebec tonight through Monday as an open wave. The associated mid
level height falls have been pushing across Lower Mi all day. There
are now indications in radar that the cap over Se Mi is being
eroded. The 18Z meso analysis shows a region of enhanced sfc
convergence along the I-94 corridor and to some extent across
western Lower Mi (where a trough is developing in the lee of Lake
Michigan). It is this trough that is expected to enhance low level
convergence as it slowly pushes east into Se Mi late this afternoon
and evening. Thus, scattered to numerous coverage of
showers/thunderstorms can be expected as this sfc convergence
interacts with the moist and moderately unstable environment over Se
Mi, primarily through 00Z.

Taking into consideration latest sfc observations and SPC meso
analysis, 0-1km MLCAPE looks to be between 1000 and 1500 j/kg. With
700-500mb lapse rates around 6 deg C/KM and 0-6km bulk shear values
near 30 knots, Given the ample moisture and marginal wind shear,
expect convective mode to be primarily multi cell clusters with some
embedded strong to severe thunderstorms. Strong winds and hail
appear the greatest severe concerns. The sfc trough axis and
instability is expected to slide east of the forecast area in the 00
to 03Z time frame, with mid level dry airexpanding across the area.
This will end the risk of additional convection by late evening.

Sfc low pressure is forecast to consolidate over the ern Great Lakes
tonight into Monday, while sfc troughing holds across srn Lake
Huron. This will support low level cyclonic flow across the area
through the day Monday. The region of low clouds now blanketing
Upper Michigan will slide across Lake Huron and nrn Lower Mi tonight
before filtering into Se Mi early Mon morning. The low level
cyclonic flow combined with the added moisture flux off Lake Huron
within a low level thermal trough will support extensive cloud cover
through much of the day Monday. The degree of low level moisture is
such that areas of drizzle and/or light showers may affect portions
of the northern sections of forecast area late tonight into Monday,
with the thumb region likely seeing more persistent light showers
off the lake. Within the low level thermal trough and cloud cover,
Monday highs will remain in the 70s (upper 60s along Lake Huron).
Mid level ridging and sfc high pressure will expand across Lower Mi
Mon night into Tuesday, bringing much drier conditions to area.

The next round of active weather will arrive late Wednesday into
Thursday as a cold front pushes through the region. Ahead of the
front on Wednesday, increasing southwest flow as high pressure
departs the region will bring warmer, more humid conditions with
highs in the mid to upper 80s. A period of showers and thunderstorms
is expected ahead of the frontal passage Wednesday night into
Thursday. Frontal passage timing varies slightly among model
guidance with the ECMWF favoring a later passage on Thursday while
the GFS and GEM favor an earlier passage on Thursday morning. High
pressure then builds back into the region Friday into next weekend
bringing a return to dry, pleasant conditions with highs ranging
from the mid 70s to lower 80s and lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.MARINE...

The relatively weak winds across the region this afternoon are the
result of a broad region of disorganized low pressure centered over
Lower Michigan. This low will slide across the eastern Great Lakes
tonight and will deepen across Lake Ontario on Monday. A surface
trough axis will reside across far southern Lake Huron into Monday
morning before pulling east Monday afternoon. There will be an
enhanced north-northeasterly gradient on the back side of this sfc
trough across Lake Huron. Cooler air overspreading the relatively
warm lake will also boost mixing depths. The result will be a push
of stronger winds (20 to 30 knots) across Lake Huron tonight
through the day Monday. This will support increasing wave heights
and rough conditions for small craft, especially across southern
Lake Huron. Winds and waves will then decrease Monday night into
Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the west.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

AVIATION...

Satellite and mesoanalysis indicate some surface based instability
developing entering early afternoon while low pressure remains
diffuse over lower Michigan. In the absence of better surface
focusing in the pressure field, expect best storm development will
be more isolated and/or a little later while cumulus churns under the
850-700 mb inversion. A prefrontal trough is forecast to sharpen up
during mid to late afternoon as the upper level circulation
approaches, both of which should give a boost to coverage and
intensity of storms mid afternoon into early evening. Otherwise,
ceiling will continue to trend upward into VFR and remain well into
the night before the associated cold front moves through the region.
The front will pull a large area of borderline IFR/MVFR clouds over
SE Michigan late tonight that will persist into Monday afternoon.

For DTW... Mid to late afternoon timing is preferred for the
greatest coverage of thunderstorms in D21 and affecting DTW. Activity
will clear DTW around 23Z as a weak prefrontal trough slides to the
east. Timing on the cold front and arrival of MVFR ceiling around 10Z
looks good.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate for thunderstorms during late afternoon.

* High for ceiling at or below 5000 feet during afternoon and again
  late tonight.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for MIZ048-049-055-063.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for LHZ421-422-
     441.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 4 AM EDT Tuesday for
     LHZ442-443.

Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...SC/JD
MARINE.......SC
AVIATION.....BT

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
336 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-240815-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
336 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms today as a cold front moves
through the region. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible
this afternoon with the main hazard being damaging wind gusts to 60
mph. Storm motion will be to the east at 30 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Dangerous beach conditions are possible on Monday along the Huron
County shore. Refer to the latest coastal hazard message, CFWDTX, for
additional information.

The next chance of thunderstorms will occur Wednesday night into
Thursday as another cold front moves through the Great Lakes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation should not be needed today and tonight.

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-240815-
Lake St Clair-
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM
off shore-
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw
Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-
Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
336 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Huron and Lake St Clair.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms today as a cold front moves
through the region. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible
this afternoon with the main hazard being damaging wind gusts to 50
knots. Storm motion will be to the east at 30 knots.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for portions of the Lake Huron
nearshore waters overnight. Refer to the latest marine weather
message, MWWDTX, for additional information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The Small Craft Advisory continues through early Monday evening.

The next chance of thunderstorms will occur Wednesday night into
Thursday as another cold front moves through the Great Lakes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation should not be needed today and tonight.

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

DG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
440 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

MIZ048-232115-
Bay MI-
440 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BAY COUNTY UNTIL 515
PM EDT...

At 440 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Pinconning, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pinconning and Mount Forest.

LAT...LON 4397 8404 4391 8403 4392 8389 4390 8380
      4388 8357 4389 8347 4384 8349 4387 8350
      4390 8388 4376 8390 4374 8387 4368 8366
      4370 8361 4374 8352 4371 8354 4369 8355
      4366 8359 4381 8417 4398 8410
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 276DEG 22KT 4389 8405

SC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
516 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

MIZ049-054-232200-
Huron MI-Tuscola MI-
516 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN TUSCOLA AND HURON
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

At 516 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 12 miles northwest of Port Austin to 11 miles
northwest of Sebewaing. Movement was southeast at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Sebewaing and Port Austin around 535 PM EDT.
  Unionville around 540 PM EDT.
  Owendale around 550 PM EDT.
  Gagetown around 555 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Pinnebog, Port
Crescent State Park, Redman, Filion, Colling, Huron City, Colwood,
Grindstone City, Bay Port and Bach.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4407 8286 4399 8270 4399 8269 4354 8344
      4366 8364 4372 8358 4375 8351 4379 8348
      4387 8349 4393 8344 4395 8334 4400 8328
      4403 8310 4407 8305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 295DEG 31KT 4417 8317 4380 8366

SC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
524 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

MIZ053-232215-
Saginaw-
524 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN SAGINAW COUNTY...

At 524 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Saginaw, moving
east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Saginaw, Frankenmuth, Birch Run, Zilwaukee, Bridgeport, Carrollton,
Swan Creek, Garfield, Arthur, Buena Vista Township, Gera, Indiantown,
Shiawassee National Wildlife Refuge, Fosters and Shields.

LAT...LON 4335 8414 4352 8406 4346 8370 4324 8380
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 288DEG 12KT 4342 8401

SC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
608 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             CASEVILLE               43.94N 83.27W
07/23/2017  E0.75 INCH       HURON              MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME-SIZED HAIL FELL FOR 10 MINUTES.

&&

JD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
624 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

MIZ049-054-055-061>063-232345-
Huron-Genesee-Tuscola-Lapeer-Sanilac-St. Clair-
624 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN TUSCOLA...
SANILAC...LAPEER...SOUTHEASTERN HURON...NORTHEASTERN GENESEE AND
NORTHWESTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTIES...

At 624 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Harbor Beach to near Millington.
Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lapeer, Imlay City, Sandusky, Almont, Croswell, Yale, Capac,
Marlette, Harbor Beach, Brown City, Lexington, Millington, North
Branch, Mayville, Ubly, Deckerville, Columbiaville, Port Sanilac,
Forestville and Dryden.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4289 8311 4289 8325 4322 8372 4322 8370
      4325 8369 4389 8263 4384 8259 4325 8248
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 310DEG 25KT 4381 8266 4332 8347

SC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
628 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             HARBOR BEACH            43.85N 82.65W
07/23/2017  E0.50 INCH       HURON              MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF-INCH DIAMETER HAIL

&&

JD